Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the macro - environment, and the current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price is in the bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term. However, attention should be paid to the potential under - expectation of future exports caused by the phased rush exports of tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam to avoid additional tariffs [13]. - The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is no need to be pessimistic. The long - position logic is mainly based on the expected production cuts due to reduced supply in Thailand and Indonesia, while the short - position logic lies in the poor macro - expectations, expected increase in supply, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policy expectations, whether the supply in Thailand will increase, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral trading strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term [14][15]. Summaries by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Recent Key Points**: The anti - involution policy is a major macro - positive factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price has dropped significantly, suppressing supply, and it is in the bottom - building stage. There is a need to pay attention to the potential under - expectation of future exports due to the phased rush exports of tire enterprises [13]. - **RU Rubber Summary**: The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom. The tire factory's full - steel tire operating rate is 63.75% (- 1.89%), and the full - steel tire inventory is high. The total inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.58 (0.95) tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting production cuts and others expecting partial production increases. The market expects small - scale rubber purchasing and storage in the future. The long - position logic is based on production cuts in Thailand and Indonesia, and the short - position logic is due to poor macro - expectations, expected supply increase, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policies, Thai supply, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread between long RU2601 and short RU2511 [15]. 2. Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup - rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is about 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and lower costs when the price is low. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [54]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - **Seasonality**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price drops occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [27]. - **Overseas and Domestic Demand**: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [32]. - **Ratio with Crude Oil**: The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [35]. 4. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The price trends of black commodities and rubber are similar, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [43][46]. 5. Demand End - **Tire Operating Rate**: The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values [59]. - **Mid - stream Demand**: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [64][67]. 6. Supply End - **Import Data**: The rubber import data, including natural and synthetic rubber, has not been updated since December 2021, and the analyzability of import data has decreased [71]. - **Production and Export Data**: The supply - related data of major rubber - producing countries are generally normal, without special values. In April 2025, the rubber production was 565.5 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.43% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The rubber export was 655.3 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.22% [105][106].