Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to see a significant slowdown in import volumes during the traditional holiday shopping season, with predictions of declines in container imports for November and December compared to the previous year [1][2]. Import Volume Trends - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a decline of 14.4% and 17.9% in container imports for November and December, respectively [1]. - Vizion's real-time monitoring indicates a projected year-on-year drop of approximately 16.6% in December imports [1]. - C.H. Robinson predicts container import declines of 19.7% and 20.1% for the last two months of the year [1]. Demand and Economic Outlook - There are concerns about the weak demand in the U.S. market, with specific categories like furniture and toys showing significant declines in imports [1][2]. - The CEO of Vizion expressed deep concerns about the future of U.S. goods trade, suggesting that low demand has become the "new normal" in the freight market [1]. - The DAT's truck freight volume index indicates a simultaneous decline in rates for various truck types, reflecting the overall state of the goods economy [2]. Inventory and Supply Chain Adjustments - Many North American retailers have adjusted their ordering and inventory strategies, completing orders earlier to avoid congestion during peak seasons [3]. - The Port of Los Angeles reported a 6.3% year-on-year decrease in container volume for October, with expectations of further declines in November and December [3]. Capacity and Pricing Outlook - Container utilization rates have dropped from 100% to 91%, with a forecast of 2.19 million TEUs arriving in December 2025, down from 2.62 million TEUs the previous year [4]. - There are warnings of a potential long-term oversupply in shipping capacity, which could lead to significant adjustments in the freight market [5]. - Despite the current challenges, C.H. Robinson noted that shipping rates remain relatively high due to careful capacity management by shipping companies [5]. Future Projections - The Port of Long Beach's CEO anticipates a slight increase in imports before the Lunar New Year in February, but acknowledges the uncertainty in economic data [6]. - Overall, there is an expectation for container volumes to approach last year's record of 9.6 million TEUs, with moderate growth projected for 2026 depending on economic performance and tariff policies [6].

Core Insights - The decline in import volumes in November and December is attributed to adjustments in ordering timing and inventory strategies rather than a significant drop in consumer demand [1][4] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a substantial decrease in U.S. import container volumes for November and December, with expected declines of 14.4% and 17.9% year-over-year, respectively [1] - Concerns about a potential "goods recession" are rising, with specific categories like furniture and toys showing significant drops in import volumes [3] Import Volume Trends - U.S. import container volumes are projected to decrease significantly during the holiday shopping season, with December imports expected to decline by approximately 16.6% year-over-year [1] - C.H. Robinson predicts container import volume declines of 19.7% and 20.1% for November and December, respectively [1] - The decline in imports is partly due to last year's high base figures, as retailers have already stocked up to avoid congestion during peak seasons [4] Consumer Spending and Economic Outlook - The World Large Enterprises Federation predicts a 6.9% decrease in holiday season consumer spending, with average spending per consumer expected to drop to $990 [3] - Despite the current downturn, NRF maintains a positive outlook for the 2025 holiday season, forecasting a sales increase of 3.7% to 4.2%, potentially exceeding $1 trillion [3] Freight Market Dynamics - The freight market is experiencing a structural reset, with a significant drop in demand leading to a new normal of low demand [3] - DAT's truck freight volume index indicates a simultaneous decline in rates for various truck types, reflecting the overall economic situation [3] - Container utilization rates have decreased from 100% to 91%, indicating potential overcapacity in the freight market [5] Capacity and Pricing Outlook - C.H. Robinson notes that shipping rates are expected to remain relatively high, despite the overall decline in import volumes [5] - The shipping industry is adjusting capacity in response to global disruptions, with new ships being delivered that may exacerbate overcapacity if demand does not recover [5] - There is an expectation of a slight uptick in imports before the Lunar New Year, but economic uncertainties make precise predictions challenging [6]