以下文章来源于中粮期货研究中心 ，作者中粮期货研究中心 中粮期货研究中心 . 传递客观的市场信息 文 | 塔林夫 来源 | 中粮期货研究中心 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 航运业的强周期属性基本由下面的逻辑驱动：首先是需求爆发或者供给收缩带来上升和繁荣，船东在手握大量现金的同时为了攫取更多利 润便大量签下新船订单。而后随着需求高位触顶向下，供需走向宽松，且随着此前的运力订单不断交付叠加船舶作为运力供给本身难以短 时间出清，过剩状况便不断加剧，市场随之进入下行和萧条周期，为下一次行业出清和需求的抬升做准备。 因此，自2022年俄乌战争的爆发和美联储开启大幅度加息，全球需求开始萎缩，集运业也由此正式从2020-2021的繁荣中触顶回落，下 行周期开启。同时，美国在2025年的对等关税和全球各主要经济体右翼的上台使得全球化阶段性触顶继续抑制了需求的增长。尽管2024 年的红海危机导致的供给急剧收缩又掀起了一波小高潮，但这只是延缓了下行的速度甚至是萧条时期的到来，可以看到的2023-2024、 2027-2028的两轮新船交付高峰将进一步拉大供给与需求之间的差距，运力过剩程度和行业的不景气程度的加深难以避免 ...

在美国年末传统的假日购物季期间，美国进口量预计将大幅放缓。 根据全美零售商联合会（NRF）发布的"全球港口追踪器"预测，今年11月和12月全美进口集装箱量将较 去年同期分别下降14.4%和17.9%。与此同时，货运数据平台Vizion的实时监测显示，12月进口量预计同 比下滑约16.6%。而全球领先的第三方物流企业罗宾升（C.H. Robinson）则预测，年末两个月的集装箱 进口量降幅将分别达到19.7%和20.1%。 然而，进口量大幅下降的背后的原因仍然难以定性。全球集装箱航运巨头马士基的首席执行官克莱尔克 （Vincent Clerc）近期公开表示，当前北美需求的疲软态势究竟是因年初订单前置导致的库存调整，还 是反映了基本面的真实走弱仍难以判断。他称："我们看到的核心风险之一就是不确定性。" "商品大衰退"还是暂时走弱 在这场讨论中，Vizion在其近期一篇博文中表达了对美国商品贸易前景的深度担忧。该公司首席执行官 亨德森（Kyle Henderson）指出，需求低迷已成为货运市场的"新常态"。他以具体品类为例说明："家具 进口大幅下滑33%，而节日季前通常激增40%至50%的玩具进口，今年仅微增17% ...

新华财经上海11月16日电（杨子华） 近期，多家国际航运企业陆续公布第三季度业绩。在全球排名前五大船公司 中，除地中海航运未公布外，其余四家航运巨头均出现量增利减的趋势。基于对当前市场的判断，多家航运企业调 整未来业绩预期。 | | 第三季度 | | 前三季度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 企业 | 营业收入 | 净利润 | 营业收入 | 净利润 | | 马士基集团 | 142 亿美元 | 9.4 亿美元 | 406.6 亿美元 | 29.4 亿美元 | | 达飞集团 | 140.4 亿美元 | 7.5 亿美元 | 404.7 亿美元 | 23.9 亿美元 | | 中远海控 | 584.9亿元(约合 | 95.3 亿元 (约合 | 1675.9 亿元(约合 | 270.7 亿（约合 | | | 82.4 亿美元) | 13.4 亿美元) | 236.0 亿美元) | 38.1 亿美元) | | 赫伯罗特 | 54.3 亿美元 | 1.6 亿美元 | 160.5 亿美元 | 9.5 亿美元 | 利润下降并非因需求不足导致。相反，航运公司货运量均呈现增长态势。马士基统 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]

Core Insights - The average spot freight rates for container shipping from Asia to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast have plummeted by 58% and 46% respectively since June 1, indicating a significant decline in shipping demand despite the route being one of the most profitable for shipping companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Overcapacity in shipping capacity, tariff changes, and geopolitical trade route adjustments are key factors contributing to the current freight rate collapse [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations has intensified market volatility [2]. - A brief increase in freight rates was observed from late May to early June due to shippers rushing to export during a temporary tariff suspension, but rates quickly fell as supply outstripped demand [3]. Group 2: Industry Expert Opinions - Experts predict that the severe overcapacity in global shipping will continue to impact the market, with shipping companies likely to implement sailing suspensions to maintain freight rates [4]. - DHL noted that the surge in shipping volume from Asia to North America has led to a decline in spot freight rates, as carriers rushed to increase capacity but are now facing an oversupply issue [4]. - Analysts expect freight rates to steadily decline in the second half of the year due to the influx of more vessels into the market and ongoing uncertainties related to tariff policies and global demand [5]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Implications - Traditionally, domestic supply chains in China sign contracts for production between March and June to prepare for the peak order season during the year-end shopping events [7]. - The ongoing decline in U.S.-China shipping rates may lower logistics costs for merchants, but it also indicates a weak demand for maritime freight during the critical inventory preparation phase, suggesting a contraction in overall cargo volume compared to previous years [8]. - Route adjustments, such as avoiding the Red Sea due to tensions in Yemen, are expected to absorb excess shipping capacity, providing some support for freight rates [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the diversion of shipping routes could absorb over 10% of container shipping capacity, maintaining a healthy utilization rate of 86%-87% [9]. - Despite a decline in exports from China to the U.S., shipments to other regions are reportedly increasing, indicating a potential shift in trade patterns [9].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market is experiencing a significant downturn in freight rates, particularly on routes from Asia to the United States, due to oversupply of shipping capacity and geopolitical trade tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Freight Rate Decline - From June 1 to August 1, average spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast fell by 58%, while rates to the East Coast dropped by 46% [1]. - Rates for the U.S. West Coast routes decreased from $6,100/FEU to $2,000/FEU, and for the East Coast from $7,100/FEU to $3,000/FEU [1][2]. - The decline in freight rates is attributed to a significant oversupply of shipping capacity and reduced export volumes from Asia [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Shipping companies are adjusting their operations by canceling or skipping planned port calls to stabilize freight rates [1][2]. - The rapid decline in rates may be a result of shipping companies misjudging market demand and aggressively increasing capacity on U.S. routes [3]. - The delivery of new ships has surged, contributing to the oversupply situation [3][5]. Group 3: Industry Response - Major shipping companies are facing challenges in predicting market conditions due to fluctuating trade situations and uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [4]. - Companies are employing strategies such as reducing sailing frequencies to mitigate the impact of falling rates [4][5]. - The global shipping market is becoming increasingly consolidated, with alliances actively managing capacity to maintain price levels [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that freight rates will continue to decline in the second half of the year due to high tariffs and ongoing oversupply [5][6]. - New emerging markets are showing strong growth potential, with container trade volumes from regions like Southeast Asia and South America increasing significantly [6][7]. - Companies are diversifying their market presence to reduce reliance on the U.S. market, with a focus on regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America for future growth [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that shipping rates from Asia to the US are under significant pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with rates dropping 58% for the West Coast and 46% for the East Coast since June 1 [1] - Xeneta warns that shipping rates from Asia to the US will continue to decline into 2025 due to persistent oversupply, with more new ships expected to enter the market in the second half of the year [1] - Major Japanese shipping companies have expressed uncertainty about the market outlook for the second half of the fiscal year due to increasing trade uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The oversupply of global shipping capacity is leading companies to cancel sailings to maintain freight rates, particularly as demand from Asia to the US weakens and European demand remains sluggish [2] - A temporary rebound in shipping rates in late May and early June was short-lived, primarily driven by companies rushing to ship goods before potential tariff increases [2] - The US domestic logistics system is currently operating smoothly, indicating a significant reduction in cross-border shipping volumes [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea have inadvertently absorbed about 10% of global shipping capacity, providing some support for freight rates [3] - Some shipping companies are rerouting to avoid US ports due to tariffs, which extends travel times and reduces available shipping capacity [3] - While shipping volumes from Asia to the US are declining, there is a regional differentiation in freight rates, with rates to Europe and Latin America remaining relatively high [3]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The aviation industry has incurred significant losses, totaling 329.5 billion yuan from 2020 to 2023, while the cumulative profit from 2010 to 2019 was only 278.2 billion yuan [2][8] - The root cause of the losses is identified as excess capacity, with a 15% increase in the number of aircraft from 2019 to 2024, while passenger traffic only grew by 11% [3] - Average ticket prices for the three major airlines have decreased by approximately 7% compared to 2019, leading to continued losses in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [11] Summary by Sections 1. Aviation Industry Losses - The aviation industry urgently needs to address its losses, with major airlines continuing to report significant deficits [6] - The average ticket price for the three major airlines in 2024 is lower than in 2019, contributing to declining profit margins [11] 2. Capacity and Demand Imbalance - The growth in the number of aircraft has outpaced the growth in passenger traffic, leading to an ongoing imbalance in supply and demand [15] - Aircraft utilization rates have not fully recovered to pre-2019 levels, although passenger load factors have exceeded those levels in 2025 [20] 3. Opportunities for Improvement - There is potential for the early retirement of older aircraft, which could help clear excess capacity and improve profitability [24][27] - The prices of second-hand aircraft have risen, providing an opportunity for airlines to sell or lease older planes for good returns [28] - The profitability of foreign airlines is higher than that of domestic airlines, suggesting a need for domestic airlines to consider external aircraft adjustments [36] 4. Domestic Aircraft Market - The delivery volume of domestic large aircraft is expected to increase significantly, with domestic aircraft projected to become the main source of growth in aircraft numbers [39]

Core Viewpoint - Australia has become a key destination for domestic airlines in China to restore and open new intercontinental routes post-pandemic, driven by changes in passenger demand and international route structures [1][5]. Group 1: Airline Operations - China Eastern Airlines plans to increase the frequency of its direct flights from Shanghai to Brisbane starting in late June, with an initial increase from three to four flights per week [1][4]. - Hong Kong Airlines will launch a direct flight from Hong Kong to Sydney on June 20, marking its second destination in Australia post-pandemic [1][4]. - A total of nine domestic airlines have prioritized Australia for resuming intercontinental routes, with China Eastern Airlines being the largest carrier by flight volume [4]. Group 2: Flight Volume and Recovery - In April, China Eastern Airlines' flights to Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane increased by 10.7% year-on-year and by 12.59% compared to April 2019 [4]. - The flight volume of China Eastern, China Southern, and Xiamen Airlines to Australia ranked them as the top three carriers, with some airlines exceeding pre-pandemic levels [4]. - Sichuan Airlines' flight volume has more than doubled compared to April 2019 [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The number of flights and passengers between China and Australia is currently unrestricted compared to routes to Europe and the US, making Australia a focal point for domestic airlines [5]. - The overall international flight volume has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, with recovery rates to Germany at 77.8%, France at 64%, and the US at only 26.4% [6][8]. - Domestic airlines are facing an oversupply of wide-body aircraft, prompting them to seek new intercontinental routes, particularly to Australia, where there are no restrictions on flight rights [8]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Tourism - The Queensland government has established the "Attracting International Aviation Investment Fund" (AAIF) worth AUD 200 million to encourage airlines to restore direct flights to Queensland [8]. - In 2019, China was the largest source of international visitors to Queensland, with 497,000 Chinese tourists generating AUD 1.61 billion in overnight visitor spending [8]. - As of the past year, Chinese visitors' overnight spending in Queensland reached AUD 916.1 million, re-establishing China as the top international consumer source for the region [8]. Group 5: Changing Travel Trends - Post-pandemic, the recovery of independent travel has outpaced that of group travel, with an increase in young and family travelers who have higher spending power [9]. - The implementation of transit visa exemptions and strategies like interline baggage handling and free overnight hotel stays are helping to attract more connecting passengers from regions like Japan and Europe to Australia [9].

Core Viewpoint - The global goods trade is expected to face significant contraction by 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and trade uncertainties, with a projected decline of 0.2% to 1.5% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, with higher rates for specific countries, aiming to address trade deficits and enhance economic security [2] - The tariff increases are anticipated to weaken U.S. consumer demand, with over 70% of U.S. businesses expecting negative impacts on trade [2] Group 2: Shipping Industry Response - The decline in demand on the trans-Pacific route has led shipping companies to reallocate excess capacity to the Asia-Europe route, with approximately 8 large container ships (totaling about 100,000 TEU) shifting from the U.S.-China route to the Asia-Europe route [3][4] - Major shipping companies are actively managing capacity through voyage cancellations and temporary idling of vessels to mitigate the effects of overcapacity and stabilize market prices [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shipping market is expected to remain weak in the short term (May-June), but there may be signs of stabilization as seasonal demand increases [8] - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with potential oversupply due to new vessel deliveries and a projected container trade growth rate of only 3%, leading to continued pressure on rates, especially on the Asia-Europe route [9] - The futures market for container shipping rates has shown a pessimistic trend, with significant declines since the introduction of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, indicating ongoing pressure on rates [10]