疫情后，澳大利亚是国内航司恢复和新开洲际航线的重点目的地，这背后是旅客需求和国际航线结构的变化。 记者近日从中国东航（600115SH）获悉，公司将自6月下旬加密上海-布里斯班的直飞航线频率。 不仅仅是东航和香港航空，对国内航司来说，澳大利亚都是他们在疫情后优先恢复的洲际航线目的地，目前已有9家内地航司从国内十多个城市飞往澳大利 亚，其中按照航班量统计的最大承运人就是东航。 根据航班管家的统计数据，整个4月份，东航执飞到澳大利亚悉尼，墨尔本和布里斯班三个航点的航班量，同比上年4月增加了10.7%，同比疫情前的2019年 4月更是增加了12.59%。 整个4月，东航，南航和厦航到澳大利亚的航班量位居前三，其中东航，厦航，川航，首都航和天津航的航班量都已超过了疫情前同期水平，川航的航班量 更是比2019年4月翻番。 与此同时，香港航空也宣布将自6月20日起开通中国香港往来澳大利亚悉尼的直飞航线，澳大利亚也是香港航空疫情后重返长途市场的"主战场"。 据记者了解，疫情后，澳大利亚是国内航司恢复和新开洲际航线的重点目的地，这背后是旅客需求和国际航线结构的变化。 航班量最高翻番 早在2016年，东航就开通了上海—布里斯班 ...

Core Insights - The port shipping stocks have surged over the past five days, outperforming 99.35% of other sectors in the market, primarily due to mutual tariff reductions and a 90-day window period, which has released previously suppressed procurement demand [1] - The increase in container bookings has skyrocketed by 277%, driven by U.S. companies accelerating inventory accumulation, providing short-term benefits to the sector [1] Long-term Outlook - From a long-term perspective, global economic weakness is expected to suppress shipping demand, with a significant number of new container ships entering service this year, alongside the recovery of Red Sea routes, leading to an increased risk of overcapacity and potential declines in freight rates [2] - For short-term investors, it is advisable to focus on shipping companies with a significant presence in U.S. routes, as the uncertainty surrounding tariffs in April has led to a notable withdrawal of capacity from U.S. routes, creating a gap that will take approximately 40 days to replenish, suggesting potential for significant increases in freight rates in the coming months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global goods trade is expected to face significant contraction by 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and trade uncertainties, with a projected decline of 0.2% to 1.5% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, with higher rates for specific countries, aiming to address trade deficits and enhance economic security [2] - The tariff increases are anticipated to weaken U.S. consumer demand, with over 70% of U.S. businesses expecting negative impacts on trade [2] Group 2: Shipping Industry Response - The decline in demand on the trans-Pacific route has led shipping companies to reallocate excess capacity to the Asia-Europe route, with approximately 8 large container ships (totaling about 100,000 TEU) shifting from the U.S.-China route to the Asia-Europe route [3][4] - Major shipping companies are actively managing capacity through voyage cancellations and temporary idling of vessels to mitigate the effects of overcapacity and stabilize market prices [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shipping market is expected to remain weak in the short term (May-June), but there may be signs of stabilization as seasonal demand increases [8] - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with potential oversupply due to new vessel deliveries and a projected container trade growth rate of only 3%, leading to continued pressure on rates, especially on the Asia-Europe route [9] - The futures market for container shipping rates has shown a pessimistic trend, with significant declines since the introduction of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, indicating ongoing pressure on rates [10]