Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to close at 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 26 points to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 130 points to close at 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 67 points to close at 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to close at 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the ICE canola active contract fell 17 points to close at 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.43% [4][7]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the US non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than market expectations, and the employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards. The expectation of recession pricing increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September heated up. The US stock market tumbled, the US bond price strengthened, and the US dollar index closed down. Oil prices rose and then fell last week. Fundamentally, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to continue to increase in July due to the increasing production and weak export demand. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the report. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][7][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 26 points to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 130 points to 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 67 points to 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 156 yuan/ton to -636 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil increased by 93 yuan/ton to 614 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong, fell 80 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.89%; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 yuan/ton to 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%; the spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, rose 30 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [7]. - In July 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production increased by 7.07%. From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [8]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July, which means the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton in August. In addition to the export tax, Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on CPO exports, which remains the same as last month [8][9]. - From January to June 2025, Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of CPO and refined palm oil, a 2.69% increase compared to the same period last year. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of this year increased by 22.2% year-on-year [9]. - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3618 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 0.0037 million tons from last week and 0.0031 million tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.6155 million tons, an increase of 0.0241 million tons from last week and 0.1088 million tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6582 million tons, an increase of 0.0016 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 49,300 tons, compared with 15,840 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 526 tons, compared with 440 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The EU agreed to impose zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil [11]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 are expected to exceed 500,000 tons, higher than 480,000 tons in 2024. Indonesia is expected to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India this year to support India's plan to expand the oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 2026 [11]. - From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year-on-year, from 61,000 tons in the same period last year to 93,000 tons [12]. - When the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EU is approved, the EU will grant zero-tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO. The EU and Indonesia are expected to officially sign the free trade agreement in September and obtain approval from their respective legislative bodies next year. If the Indonesian CPO exported to the EU exceeds the 1 million - ton quota, an additional 3% tariff will be imposed [12][13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, exports, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory of domestic oils and fats [15][17][20][23][25][27][33][35][41][46].