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宝城期货橡胶早报-20250605
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:12
Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of both Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2509) and synthetic rubber futures (BR 2508) are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trends are expected to be volatile and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. - Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2509) and synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a stable or slightly stronger volatile trend on Thursday [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Volatile [1] - Medium - term: Volatile [1] - Intraday: Volatile and on the stronger side [1] - Overall reference: On the stronger side [1] - **Core Logic** - As macro factors are digested, the trading logic in the rubber market has shifted to the supply - demand fundamentals. With the full - scale tapping season in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas, raw material output is increasing steadily, and new rubber supply is rising. The zero - tariff policy for imported natural rubber between China and Thailand has lowered the import cost and pushed down the price center. Meanwhile, the external demand of the downstream tire industry has shrunk, weakening the consumption factor. After a sharp decline in rubber prices, the bearish sentiment has been digested. On Wednesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a stable volatile trend, closing slightly up 0.45% at 13,530 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Volatile [1] - Medium - term: Volatile [1] - Intraday: Volatile and on the stronger side [1] - Overall reference: On the stronger side [1] - **Core Logic** - As macro factors are digested, the trading logic in the synthetic rubber market has shifted to the supply - demand fundamentals. The approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand expectation is weak. With the overnight crude oil futures price fluctuating weakly, the domestic synthetic rubber futures contract 2508 closed slightly up 0.32% at 10,860 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].