投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：近期美豆期价受出口预期影响，与国内现货基本面疲弱形成鲜明反差。春节过后油厂开机率缓 慢恢复，但购销停滞导致大豆及豆粕库存被动累积；节后下游饲料企业物理库存充足，采购心态谨慎，现 货基差跟涨乏力、被动走弱。市场核心矛盾在于进口大豆成本支撑和国内弱现实之间的博弈。短期走势仍 将依赖美豆与政策动向，但国内现货压力将限制上方空间，豆粕期价震荡偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the medium - term view is volatile. The price of palm oil futures shows a high - level volatility, and the short - term high - level volatility does not change the overall strong pattern [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Views**: Intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of new US soybeans has decreased, and the support for US soybean futures prices has increased. The sowing weather of new crops in South America and the harvesting weather of US soybeans have attracted market attention. The weak domestic situation persists, with some oil mills experiencing inventory overstock and urging提货. The market's expectation of a supply gap in the fourth quarter still supports the far - month soybean meal prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Views**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all volatile and slightly stronger [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend of palm oil futures prices has slowed down, and the oil market has entered a high - level volatility. The fluctuation of international oil prices has highlighted the bio - fuel attribute of palm oil. Currently, the production growth rate of the palm oil industry chain has slowed down, exports remain strong, and the favorable supply - demand environment continues to support the international palm oil prices. The short - term high - level volatility of palm oil futures prices does not change the overall strong pattern [7].