策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 金融期货和期权 （2025.05.14） 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF206 空 IM2506 对冲组合 核心逻辑： 1.中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，双方共同发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，达成磋 商机制，成果高于预期，不过利多消息基本被市场消化，短期扰动逐步淡化。 2.市场重回基本面定价逻辑，国内政策托举有助稳定市场预期。"一行一局一会"再出 政策组合拳，措施密集且针对性强。央行推出"数量+价格+结构"组合，"降准降息"释放 流动性、再贷款工具定向发力提质增效；金融监管总局推出稳楼市、稳股市、稳外贸等八项 增量政策；证监会围绕稳定和活跃资本市场强调全力支持中央汇金发挥类平准基金作用、深 化双创改革发展新质生产力、引导长期资金入市等。 3.证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，督促行业从"重规模"向"重回 报"转变，或对 A 股市场生态产生中长期影响，中低风险偏好的主动权益资金进一步加大沪 深 300 等权重行业配置或加大红利资产的配置。 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数相对强势 中期观点：蓄力上涨 1.中美经贸 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]