Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), the intraday view is range - bound oscillation with the CSI 300 index relatively strong, and the medium - term view is a power - accumulating upward trend [1]. - For Treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), the intraday view is slightly stronger in oscillation, and the medium - term view is bullish [2]. - For black and building materials in the metal and new energy materials sector (rebar, hot - rolled coil), the short - term driving force has improved, but steel prices are still under pressure in the medium term [4]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Futures - Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2]. Black and Building Materials - Continue to hold the strategy of "selling call options on rebar RB2510 - C - 3450" and "buying in - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 - P - 3150" [4]. Group 4: Core Logics Stock Index Futures - Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, but the bullish news has been mostly digested by the market, and the short - term disturbance is gradually fading [1]. - The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and domestic policies support to stabilize market expectations. A series of policy measures have been introduced by relevant regulatory authorities [1]. - The CSRC has issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of public funds, which may have a long - term impact on the A - share market ecosystem, and medium - and low - risk - preference active equity funds may increase their allocation to weighted industries such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - The substantial progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks has a diminishing impact on safe - haven assets, and the market pricing has returned to the fundamental logic [3]. - The inflation data in April reflects weak domestic demand. It is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened under price pressure, which will help the overall decline of the yield curve [3]. - The liquidity in the inter - bank market is balanced and loose, and the changes in the repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions are limited [3]. Black and Building Materials - The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made substantial progress, and some foreign - trade factories may rush to fulfill export orders, which will drive a short - term rebound in the demand for steel plates and help stabilize steel prices [4]. - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large, and the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs are expected to be under pressure in the medium term [4][5]. - The downstream demand for steel is generally weak. The export orders for steel plates are affected by tariffs, and the construction steel consumption is also weak due to poor capital availability for construction projects [5].

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]