Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.02% at 121.130, the 10-year main contract flat at 109.105, the 5-year main contract up 0.01% at 106.255, and the 2-year main contract up 0.01% at 102.514 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8485%, and the 10-year government development bond yield also rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.7150% [1] - The 2-year government bond yield decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.3575%, while the 3-year and 5-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point and 0.55 basis points respectively [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 572 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [2] - The funding environment appears more relaxed, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 4 basis points to around 1.31%, and 7-day pledged repo rates down over 3 basis points to approximately 1.46% [2] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower, but the maturity of certificates of deposit is significant, and July is a month with high tax payments, which may cause fluctuations in the funding environment [2] Operational Recommendations - With funding rates continuing to decline, bond futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations with most varieties slightly rising, supported by a relaxed funding environment [3] - The short-term strategy suggests accumulating long positions during adjustments, while being cautious of profit-taking near previous highs, and monitoring economic data and funding trends [3] - The curve strategy may continue to focus on steepening opportunities, while the interest rate risk (IRR) is gradually increasing, suggesting a focus on positive spread strategies [3]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.28% to 120.740, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 109.005, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 106.205, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.01% to 102.488 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.8520%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.7175%, the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6435%, and the 2-year government bond yield up by 0.1 basis points to 1.3660% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 131 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 131 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [2] - After the month-end, the funding conditions for banks have returned to a loose state, with overnight pledged repo rates dropping over 14 basis points to 1.36%, and seven-day pledged repo rates declining over 37 basis points [2] Operational Suggestions - As the funding conditions turn loose at the beginning of the month, the overall bond market has rebounded, but there is currently a lack of momentum to break previous highs [3] - Key points to monitor include whether funding rates can further decline, the subsequent fundamental conditions, and whether the central bank will announce government bond trading situations [3] - For government bond futures strategy, it is suggested to appropriately allocate long positions during adjustments, take profit near previous highs, and pay attention to economic data and funding trends [3]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed flat, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.10% to 120.720 yuan, while the 10-year main contract fell by 0.02% to 108.950 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 1.3 basis points to 1.8505%, and the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.6450% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 509.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan for the day [2] - Overnight pledged repo rates slightly decreased, remaining around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate fell by approximately 1 basis point [2] - The central bank's liquidity management through MLF and reverse repos indicates a clear supportive stance [2] Operational Recommendations - The short-term funding environment may experience disturbances due to the quarter-end, but the overall bond market is expected to remain stable [3] - Attention should be paid to the central bank's announcement regarding government bond transactions, as a resumption of bond purchases could lead to a decline in yields [3] - The market is also monitoring the June PMI data, with expectations of a potential decline influencing market sentiment [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), the intraday view is range - bound oscillation with the CSI 300 index relatively strong, and the medium - term view is a power - accumulating upward trend [1]. - For Treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), the intraday view is slightly stronger in oscillation, and the medium - term view is bullish [2]. - For black and building materials in the metal and new energy materials sector (rebar, hot - rolled coil), the short - term driving force has improved, but steel prices are still under pressure in the medium term [4]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Futures - Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2]. Black and Building Materials - Continue to hold the strategy of "selling call options on rebar RB2510 - C - 3450" and "buying in - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 - P - 3150" [4]. Group 4: Core Logics Stock Index Futures - Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, but the bullish news has been mostly digested by the market, and the short - term disturbance is gradually fading [1]. - The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and domestic policies support to stabilize market expectations. A series of policy measures have been introduced by relevant regulatory authorities [1]. - The CSRC has issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of public funds, which may have a long - term impact on the A - share market ecosystem, and medium - and low - risk - preference active equity funds may increase their allocation to weighted industries such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - The substantial progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks has a diminishing impact on safe - haven assets, and the market pricing has returned to the fundamental logic [3]. - The inflation data in April reflects weak domestic demand. It is expected that the monetary policy will be further loosened under price pressure, which will help the overall decline of the yield curve [3]. - The liquidity in the inter - bank market is balanced and loose, and the changes in the repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions are limited [3]. Black and Building Materials - The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made substantial progress, and some foreign - trade factories may rush to fulfill export orders, which will drive a short - term rebound in the demand for steel plates and help stabilize steel prices [4]. - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large, and the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs are expected to be under pressure in the medium term [4][5]. - The downstream demand for steel is generally weak. The export orders for steel plates are affected by tariffs, and the construction steel consumption is also weak due to poor capital availability for construction projects [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: Indexes are differentiated, with large - cap stocks continuing to rebound in the short - term and in a wide - range shock in the medium - term. For bonds, there is a short - term shock adjustment and long - term bonds continue to correct, but are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Steel prices are gradually falling in the short - term and under pressure in the medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Indexes are differentiated, and large - cap stocks continue to rebound [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range shock, index differentiation [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold a long IH2504 and short IM2504 hedging portfolio, and buy IO2504 - C - 3750 call options [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic market - stabilizing policies are introduced, which helps large - cap indexes rebound. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy causes uncertainty and overseas risk - asset selling pressure disturbs the domestic market [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Shock adjustment, long - term bonds continue to correct [2]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation, and take profit for trading positions [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term repo rates of deposit - taking institutions rise slightly, and medium - and long - term funds stop falling. Domestic market - stabilizing policies lead to profit - taking pressure on bonds. The "equal - tariff" policy increases uncertainty, and funds flow to safe - haven assets, raising expectations of "loose money" [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)** - **Intraday View**: Steel prices gradually fall [4]. - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450 and buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [6]. - **Core Logic**: Raw material inventory pressure is high, which may increase steel supply. Downstream demand is weak, and construction project funds are in short supply, resulting in slow construction progress and weak steel consumption. Before the introduction of domestic fiscal stimulus policies, steel prices may continue to fall [4][5].

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]