1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key point of the current market macro - logic is the candidate for the next Fed Chair. The market is trading on the expectation of looser policies, leading to pressure on US Treasury yields and the US dollar, and a rebound in risk assets [5][10]. - The change of the Fed Chair in early 2026 will be an important event affecting US monetary policy. The choice of the new chair is essentially a decision between "the most obedient" and "the most suitable", which may bring significant policy changes [7][73]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut probability has little change, with an 82.8% probability of a 25bp cut to 3.5 - 3.75% [6][64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The market is focusing on the next Fed Chair. With Powell about to step down and Trump involved, Kevin Hassett is the hot candidate. The market expects looser policies, causing US Treasury yields and the US dollar to decline, and risk assets to rebound. Global stocks and most commodities rose, A - share major indices rebounded, the BDI index rose, the US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies strengthened. Commodities showed mixed performance, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising, and oil prices rebounding [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market showed mixed performance with near - term strength and long - term weakness, stock indices rebounded across the board, and most commodity sectors declined. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 1.95%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 7 falling. Non - ferrous metals soared, precious metals were strong, and grains were firm, while other sectors declined, with the non - metallic building materials sector leading the decline by more than - 4% [5][16]. Capital Flows - The commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds last week. The non - ferrous metals, grains, coking coal and steel ore, soft commodities, and chemical sectors had obvious inflows, while the oilseeds, agricultural products, and non - metallic building materials sectors had significant outflows [6][18]. Variety Performance - Last week, domestic major commodity futures showed mixed performance. The top - rising commodities were silver futures, copper futures, and the container shipping index, while the top - falling ones were glass, lithium carbonate, and ethylene glycol [23]. - From the perspective of volume - price matching, there were many commodity futures with obvious increasing positions and rising prices, especially copper futures; there were also many with obvious increasing positions and falling prices, such as soda ash, PVC, and sugar futures [25]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index changed little last week. The volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and the Nanhua Commodity Index diverged. Among sectors, the volatilities of commodity futures sectors showed mixed performance, with the soft commodities and agricultural products sectors having obvious volatility declines, and the non - ferrous metals sector having a remarkable volatility increase [27]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities generally rose. The BDI index rose, the CRB index had a small increase, soybeans fell while corn rose, and copper, oil, gold, and silver all rose, with the gold - silver ratio dropping significantly [29]. - Domestically, the asphalt production rate rebounded slightly, real - estate sales were at a low level, freight rates continued to diverge, and short - term capital interest rates were at a low level [43]. Macro Logic - Stock indices oscillated and rebounded, valuations recovered, and the equity risk premium (ERP) changed little. In terms of style, value stocks performed better than growth stocks [32][33]. - Commodity price indices rose significantly, while the inflation expectation rebounded weakly [36]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between stocks and commodities and the price difference between domestic and international commodities: last week, stocks oscillated and rebounded, commodities recovered, and the commodity - stock return difference changed little. The domestic and international commodity performance differences were not significant, and the return difference between domestic and international commodity futures hovered around 0 [39][42]. - US Treasury yields were weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term, the term structure steepened, the term spread changed little, and the real interest rate and the gold price rose together [51]. - US Treasury yields rose slightly, the China - US interest rate spread narrowed, the inflation expectation rose slightly, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar fell slightly, and the RMB continued to appreciate [54]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" improved, the Citi Economic Surprise Index showed divergence, and the 10Y - 3M US Treasury yield spread widened significantly [56]. Fed Chair Succession - Trump has determined the candidate for the next Fed Chair and will announce it soon. Kevin Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the market has reacted to the expectation of a "more dovish" chair. The candidate list has been narrowed to five, including Hassett, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder [67][69]. - The choice of the next Fed Chair is essentially between "the most obedient" and "the most suitable". Hassett's appointment may lead to a looser monetary policy cycle for political growth goals but damage the Fed's independence and the US dollar's credit in the long run. Waller's appointment may lead to a more gradual policy shift and more reliance on traditional economic data [72][74]. - Kevin Hassett has publicly responded and is likely to accept the nomination if selected. Trump may announce the nominee before December 25. If Hassett is elected, it may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, cause market fluctuations during the power transition, and Powell's decision to stay as a governor is also a focus [77]. This Week's Focus - Monday (December 8): Eurozone December Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to London (tentative) - Tuesday (December 9): US October JOLTs Job Openings, US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday (December 10): China November CPI, US 10 - year Treasury Bond Auction, Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - Thursday (December 11): Fed FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Economic Projection Summary & Powell Press Conference, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - Friday (December 12): Nasdaq 100 Index Annual Component Adjustment [79]