银行间主要利率债收益率全线下行，截至下午16:30，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率下行1.25bp报 1.8315%，30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率下行0.95bp报2.187%，10年期国开活跃券250215收益率下行 1.55bp报1.902%。 | | 利率德二级 信用债二级 NCD二级 NCD二级 | | | 基准 ● 前收 ● 估值 用 … | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1Y 100 2Y 2Y 2Y 2Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 100 7Y 100 100 100 100 100 | | 超长债 | | | | | | 1.4000 -0.75 1.4150 -1.25 1.4350 -1.50 1.5650 -1.00 1.7325 -0.75 1.8315 -1.25 2.1870 -0.95 | | | | | | | 国债 | 250019.08 250017.18 250023.18 250003.18 250003.18 250018.18 250016.18 2500006.18 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has improved, leading to a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin, which is linked to an overall improvement in risk sentiment rather than specific catalysts in the crypto market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - QCP Capital suggests that the rise in Bitcoin is associated with improved risk sentiment in the market [1] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, which is influencing investor behavior [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is approaching a mid-term rebound target of $90,000, although it may face supply constraints related to ETFs [1] - The recent liquidation events have established a key support zone between $80,000 and $82,000 for Bitcoin [1] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to be driven by market risk appetite and macroeconomic catalysts [1]

Group 1: Key Points on the Ceasefire Agreement - The proposed "28-point" ceasefire agreement requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1] - The agreement has been modified to "19 points" due to Ukraine's constitutional constraints and the need for further negotiations [1] - Key provisions include the recognition of Crimea and other territories as Russian, and a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The agreement's failure to address core disputes means the path to peace remains long and uncertain, with potential for increased geopolitical friction [2] - Trump may escalate economic and military sanctions to pressure negotiations, potentially impacting market risk appetite [2] - The U.S. and Europe are expected to contribute $1 trillion for Ukraine's reconstruction, with the U.S. receiving 50% of profits from investments [1] Group 3: Market Impact - Oil prices may have limited downward movement despite recent negotiation news, as substantial breakthroughs towards a ceasefire are lacking [3] - Future negotiations may lead to increased volatility in oil and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The market's reaction to news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not meet expectations, posing additional risks [3]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the labor market remains structurally unbalanced, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [1] - The release of November non-farm payroll data has been postponed from December 5 to December 16, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a current probability of approximately 69% for a cut in December [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, the growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in China fell to -19.1% from 2.3% in September, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year [1] - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure decreased to -9.3% from 3.1% in September, while government fund expenditure dropped to -32.8% from 0.4% in September [1] - Tax revenue showed slight recovery, but non-tax revenue continued to weaken [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remains tight due to tax period disturbances, with the stock market adjusting but limited reaction in the bond market, which continues to experience narrow fluctuations [1] - The central bank governor indicated that the yield on 10-year government bonds remains around 1.75%-1.85%, with cautious sentiment in the bond market near key levels [1] - The expectation of a U.S. rate cut and skepticism regarding AI narratives have not triggered a significant decline in the bond market, indicating that a trend in interest rates may require substantial central bank bond purchases or a slowdown in the economy to prompt monetary policy easing [1] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - Following a significant adjustment in the A-share market, current indicators suggest that market sentiment is at a low level, indicating limited downward space [2] - Uncertainties regarding overseas liquidity, rate cut expectations, and important internal meetings in December may prevent an immediate recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Structural pressures between market styles have eased, suggesting a gradual entry into a mid-term layout phase [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by U.S. rate cut expectations, with a mid-term perspective indicating potential benefits from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] Group 6: Commodity Outlook - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts may not significantly boost oil demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized recently amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive outlook for the medium to long term [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate below $4,050 amid improved market risk appetite, despite a retreat in the dollar [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and new conflicts in the Middle East, support gold's safe-haven appeal, but a rebound in global stock markets has weakened risk aversion [3][4] - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including Q3 GDP and PCE price index, will significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [3][4] Group 2 - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest a tight policy with potential for future rate cuts, raising the probability of a December rate cut to about 67% [3] - Divergent views among Fed officials maintain a strong dollar, which pressures gold prices, while optimistic expectations for rate cuts enhance investor risk appetite [3][4] - Key technical levels for gold include support at $4,030 and resistance at $4,080, with potential price movements towards $4,000 or $4,100 depending on market stability [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has diminished, leading to a global adjustment in stock markets, with concerns about potential bubbles in the artificial intelligence sector affecting market risk appetite [1]. Market Performance - Following the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the anticipation of a December rate cut has decreased, causing disturbances in global liquidity expectations and resulting in a weak performance in overseas stock markets [1]. - The A-share market, which had already been digesting gains from the second half of the year, has also been impacted by overseas market trends, leading to a decline in short-term holding confidence and an increase in profit-taking sentiment [1]. - Last week, the market experienced consecutive adjustments with reduced trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 60-day moving average and left a significant downward gap [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index also saw substantial adjustments, losing the 60-day moving average and widening its decline [1]. Trading Volume and Market Trends - The average daily trading volume for both markets last week was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1]. - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in defensive sectors, while small-cap and technology stocks led the decline [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index faced technical resistance, leading to a downward adjustment and returning to the consolidation range observed in August and September [1]. - The index encountered technical resistance at the end of the previous week, resulting in a sudden downward adjustment that continued into the following week, breaking through multiple short- and medium-term moving averages [1]. - Currently, the index has returned to the horizontal consolidation range from August and September, and it is advised to closely monitor the effectiveness of the previous support levels [1].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Wande All A index dropping by 3.17% and the Wande All A Equal Weight Index falling by 3.74% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.45% at 3834.89 points, breaching the 3900-point level [1] - The market's performance indicates a bearish trend, as the Wande All A index fell below the lower Bollinger Band [1][5] Global Market Influence - The decline in A-shares is part of a global market trend, initiated by a sharp drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq 100, which fell over 2% after opening more than 2% higher [2] - Nvidia's earnings report, which exceeded analyst expectations, led to a 3.15% drop in its stock, indicating that the market is trading on "whisper numbers" rather than consensus estimates [4][6] - The U.S. labor market report showed a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls but also a rise in the unemployment rate, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [6] Sector Performance - The "consumption downgrade" narrative is emerging in the U.S., with Walmart's stock rising by 6.46% due to strong earnings, while Target's stock fell by 2.79% due to disappointing results [7] - In the A-share market, micro-cap stocks led the decline, with the Wande Micro-cap Index dropping by 4.87%, reflecting a retreat in risk appetite [11] - Traditional defensive sectors, such as banks and insurance, showed some resilience, but overall market sentiment remains weak [31][34] Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching its 100-day moving average, which has historically served as a support level [8] - A significant number of sectors, including steel and chemicals, experienced declines of around 4%, indicating a broad-based sell-off [19] - The market's risk appetite has diminished significantly, as evidenced by the sharp declines in traditionally lower-risk sectors [19] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions in light of the current market conditions [20][22] - The sentiment among different models varies, with some suggesting a reduction in exposure to 20% while others maintain a more optimistic stance [21][22] - The overall market outlook remains uncertain, heavily influenced by external factors such as U.S. market stability and economic indicators [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 7% and other major cryptocurrencies following suit, indicating a broader market sell-off and loss of investor confidence [1][5]. Market Performance - As of November 21, Bitcoin is priced at $86,097.4, marking a 7.09% decline in the last 24 hours. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana have also seen declines of 7.81% and 8.37% respectively [2][3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours exceeded $900 million (approximately 6.79 billion RMB), affecting over 252,000 traders [3][4]. Factors Influencing the Market - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Despite a peak in October, the lack of sustained capital inflow and high leverage positions have contributed to the current sell-off, compounded by external liquidity constraints [5][6]. Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price throughout the year, but there are signs of capital outflow from these institutions recently [6]. - The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive due to trends in global asset diversification, increasing long-term capital, and heightened institutional participation, which may support future price increases [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of recent U.S. employment data and market sentiment on gold prices, while emphasizing the importance of profit in investment analysis [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold is currently trading in a range-bound pattern, with prices around $4076 per ounce, influenced by strong U.S. employment data and a rising dollar index [1] - The U.S. September non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, indicating resilience in the job market [1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, but a broader measure of unemployment decreased to 8%, reflecting a complex labor market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold's recent price action has been characterized by volatility, with key resistance at $4110 and support around $4030-4000 [2][4] - The article suggests a bearish outlook for gold, recommending short positions if prices fail to break above $4110 [2][4] - The trading strategy includes selling on rebounds near $4100-4105 and buying on dips around $4030-4035, with strict stop-loss measures advised [5]