一 - REAL TECH 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月14日 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 欢迎关注微信公众号 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2512 | | 周末,特朗普在社交媒体上发文表示将再度大幅提 高对我国关税。参考4月关税冲突演变,市场风险 | | | 股指 | IH2512 | 贸易摩擦扰动,股指受挫低开 | 偏好短期内可能受到压制,使得A股亦受挫下行, 但此轮双方大概率仍以增强谈判前的强势态度为 | | | | IC2512 IM2512 | | 主,摩擦性质大于实质冲突,股指以先跌后反弹为 | | | | | | 主,中长期不改上行大趋势。推荐可适当轻仓卖出 MO2512-P-7000附近看跌期权,收取权利金。 | | | | | | 接下来债市影响线索较为复杂,一方面关注基金赎 | | | | | | 回费新规落地情况,二是关注市场风险偏好变化, | | | | T2512 TF2512 | | 三是中美关系仍可能出现反复。不过当前资金面基 调宽松和长短期限利差回归正常 ...

钢材】单边观望。盘面套利重点观察01合约卷螺差是否给到150以下布局做多的机会。期现反套滚动 (焦煤焦炭】单边暂时观望 【焦煤焦炭】贸易纠纷再起,风险资产集体下挫 现货端,节假期间焦炭首轮提涨落地,市场传闻第二轮提涨原先计划10日提出,但最终推迟,港口贸易报价提前下跌,产 地练焦煤竞拍涨跌互现,港口贸易准一集炭排价1430(-10),炼焦煤价格指数1251.1(-0.5);蒙煤方面,节日期间由 于通关暂停,甘其毛都口岸库存下降明显,节后通关恢复至高位,市场成交氛围冷清,市场多保持观望,现甘其毛都口岸, 蒙5原煤1028(+16),蒙5精煤1285(-),河北唐山:蒙5精煤1422(-)。期货端,节后第一周仅两个交易日,商品市场 2 大起大落,节日期间表现强势的资产在节后首个交易日大幅上涨后,第二个交易日迎来了回调,至周五夜盘受中美贸易摩擦 升级影响,市场集体risk-off,权益、工业金属和能源急跌。基本面来看,节日期间钢材累库较多,终端需求表现依然较 弱,不过随着假期结束,需求也会快速恢复,具体情况还有待后续验证,炉料数据则表现较好,煤矿节日期间多有减产, 游库存消耗较快,碳元素总库存去化,表明供需依然偏紧 ...

四季度：政策对冲会重现吗？ 从近年的季节性规律来看，四季度历来是财政政策集中发力的高频窗口。一方面，在内需偏弱的大环境下，年度经济 目标的实现压力往往在年底集中体现，财政支出的节奏和强度通常在这一阶段明显上行；另一方面，前三季度 GDP 增 速与目标值的缺口越大，财政端加码对冲的概率也越高。无论是增发政府债，还是推进重大项目落地，财政在四季度 都具备较强的调节灵活性和政策空间。今年前三个季度的经济增速已基本明朗，而二、三季度基本面有所边际走弱， 那么今年会重演"四季度发力"吗？ 前三季度累计增速或高于年度目标，四季度"达标"压力较小。 在我们的基准情形下，根据拟合结果，三季度 GDP 增速大致落在 4.9%左右，前三季度累计增速或能达到 5.2%，高于 全年 5%左右的增长目标。从历史经验来看，参考近五年的表现，当前三季度累计增速已超出目标时，四季度新增大规 模逆周期政策的概率通常下降。按照上述测算进一步外推，今年四季度 GDP 同比增速达到约 4.6%，全年目标就基本可 以兑现。换句话说，即便四季度经济延续二、三季度的温和回落态势，只要不显著脱离中枢水平，并叠加前期政策工 具逐步落地，经济增速预计仍能稳定在 ...

进入四季度，权益市场强势开局，债市何时止跌备受关注。 展望四季度，受访基金经理认为，债市或呈现 "牛平"态势，即收益率下行且曲线趋平。投资 策略方面，需重视确定性收益，审慎把握交易节奏，密切关注相关政策的边际变化，把握结 构性机会。 【导读】债市或呈"牛平"态势，关注震荡修复与结构机遇 中国基金报记者 张燕北 "受基金销售新规影响，市场担心银行金市和银行理财会大量赎回债基，纯债类理财产品面临 一定赎回压力。"北京一位固收基金经理补充道。 债市赔率、性价比提升 对于四季度的债券市场，基金经理认为扰动因素仍存，但基本面环境并不支持债市趋势转 熊。 "四季度债市有望较三季度转好，但过程中仍面临一些不确定性因素。"周帅称，央行可能会 重启购买国债，并相机抉择，应用降准降息等政策工具，从而为债市带来一定的修复性机 会。从更长的时间维度来看，央行"降成本"思路更具结构性和定向性，主动推进大幅度、进 一步宽松的必要性则有所收敛。 三方面因素致债市调整 三季度，区间震荡是债市的主旋律。尤其是 9月份，30年期国债收益率整体上行约10BP，利 率债曲线明显熊陡。信用利差走阔，2年期以上信用债整体上行10BP以上。 在信达澳亚基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a downward adjustment in early trading, with all three major indices declining, and the CSI A500 index falling by 1.56% [1]. Market Performance - In the market, sectors such as batteries and semiconductors saw collective adjustments, while the focus shifted to electric grid equipment, nuclear power, and military industries [2]. - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index dropped over 1%, with 13 related ETFs having transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, and 4 surpassing 2.9 billion yuan. The transaction volumes for A500 ETF fund, CSI A500 ETF, and A500 ETF Huatai-PB were 3.748 billion yuan, 3.214 billion yuan, and 2.986 billion yuan respectively [2]. Economic Outlook - A brokerage firm indicated that with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle in October, the global liquidity environment is expected to become more accommodative, which may broaden the operational space for domestic monetary policy. This has led to increased market expectations for subsequent easing measures from the central bank, potentially boosting market risk appetite [2]. - However, the increasing congestion in previously popular sectors may heighten short-term market volatility risks. Based on this assessment, a balanced investment strategy incorporating both growth and value styles is recommended [2].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 【股指】 在贵金属、工业金属以及稀土等板块的带动下，国内股市大幅上涨。基 本面上，国庆期间美国经济数据不及预期，增强美联储降息预期，全球股市整体 上涨。国内央行大额续作 MLF，市场流动性充裕；政策方面；此外，国内多个行 业稳增长方案陆续出台，政策支持力度加大，国内风险偏好有望继续升温。近期 市场交易逻辑主要聚焦在国内增量刺激政策上，短 ...

10月8日 22:30 美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔讲话 10月9日 02:00 美联储公布9月FOMC会议纪要 本周市场事件密集，重点关注美联储的言论与9月会议纪要，同时中国的金融数据和央行流动性操作也 将对大宗商品及人民币资产产生直接影响。短线交易环境以事件驱动为主，建议适度控制仓位，依据市 场确认的信号再进行操作。 关键时间节点（北京时间） 10月9日 20:30 美联储主席鲍威尔致辞 加密货币：加密市场对宏观流动性与风险偏好非常敏感。如果美联储纪要表明降息路径更加明确，风险 资产通常会受益；若纪要倾向于紧缩或保持观望，行情可能会出现回撤。建议采用严格的仓位管理与止 损规则，避免在新闻发布后的初期大幅建仓。 交易提醒 风险窗口从10月8日晚至10月10日晚，期间美联储会议纪要（10月9日凌晨）为核心事件。建议在纪要发 布前后降低杠杆并设置止损。 10月10日 20:30 加拿大公布9月失业率及就业数据 10月10日 22:00 美国公布10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 10月11日 01:00 Baker Hughes每周美国石油钻井总数公布 10月11日 03:30 CFTC周度持仓报告发布 各资产关注要 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown, occurring for the first time in seven years, is expected to negatively impact the economy, including U.S. import and export trade, and investment, shaking corporate confidence in the U.S. market [1][6] - Key financial regulatory agencies, including the SEC and CFTC, have placed most of their staff on unpaid leave, leading to a suspension of IPO applications and delays in the listing process for many companies, which could harm investor sentiment [3][5] - The shutdown is likely to exacerbate existing concerns in global asset markets, with investors shifting capital towards safe-haven assets like gold, potentially leading to price increases in these commodities [3][5] Group 2 - During the shutdown, customs operations will continue, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, causing delays in new certifications, approvals, and background checks, which will complicate import and export licensing for traders [5][6] - The absence of timely economic data releases, including employment and price data, will create uncertainty for foreign companies operating in the U.S. market, further amplifying global economic insecurity [6] - Historical data indicates that during the last shutdown in 2018, delays in food and beverage import/export procedures led to significant losses for traders, with cargo dwell times at major ports increasing by 15% to 20% [5][6]

Group 1 - Market focus is on Trump's new tariffs, key US economic data, and commodity volatility, with investors observing the Federal Reserve's actions and risk sentiment [1] - Electronic Arts saw a significant increase of approximately 15% due to acquisition rumors, sparking speculation and merger interest in the gaming sector [10] - Boeing's stock rose by around 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [10] - NIO's stock declined by about 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimistic policy support [10] Group 2 - The market is digesting the tariffs announced by Trump, with investors seeking clarity on whether the new taxes will be broadly applicable or subject to trade agreement exemptions [10] - Upcoming macro data, including key US inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [10] - Risk appetite appears cautious ahead of the US inflation data release, with the VIX remaining firm above recent lows as traders process policy and tariff uncertainties [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on September 26, with the ChiNext Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.38%, and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.35% [1] - The MSCI China A50 Connect Index, which represents core leading assets, fell approximately 0.8% during the session, with leading stocks such as China Merchants Shekou, BYD, and China National Nuclear Power leading the decline [1] - The margin trading balance has been steadily increasing since last September, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on August 5 this year and remaining above this threshold for 37 consecutive trading days, with the balance exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan for the last three days [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Founder Securities, the continuous new highs in margin trading balance reflect an increase in market risk appetite, indicating a relatively loose liquidity environment in the A-share market [1] - Although the absolute scale of the margin trading balance has exceeded that of 2015, its proportion relative to the circulating market value and trading volume remains at historical mid-levels since 2016 [1] - The A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a packaged investment in 50 leading interconnected assets, making it a preferred choice for domestic and foreign funds [1]