1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with asset prices showing high volatility. The A - share market is in an oscillating pattern, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Different commodity prices are affected by factors such as the Middle East conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [2][3] - The end - of - war signals between the US and Iran have led to a rebound in risk appetite in the overseas market, and the prices of various metals and agricultural products have shown different trends. The price trends of different varieties are mainly affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost [4][6][23] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US - Iran situation is in the stage of "fighting while negotiating, using pressure to promote negotiation". China and Pakistan call for cooling down the situation in the Middle East, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. The Nasdaq rose nearly 4%, oil prices fell about 3%, precious metals continued to recover, the US bond yield fell below 4.4%, and the US dollar index dropped to 99.7 [2] - Domestic: In March, China's official PMI rebounded overall, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range. However, the recovery sustainability is restricted. The A - share market is in an oscillating pattern, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose sharply on Tuesday. The end - of - war signals from the US and Iran have eased market concerns, but the geopolitical signals are still changing, and the precious metal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The copper price rebounded. The overall conflict situation is cooling down, the overseas risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar has fallen, which has boosted the metal market. The mine supply is still tight, and the refined copper production capacity expansion is restricted. The copper price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price remained strong. Although there are expectations of conflict mitigation in the Middle East, the conflict is still expected to continue for some time. The domestic spot consumption is recovering seasonally, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain a strong performance [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price oscillated. The overseas alumina surplus has increased, and the domestic new - production capacity is gradually being released, putting pressure on the price. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [10] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum price is in a relatively strong operation. The cost provides support, the supply is limited, and the demand is weak and stable. It is mainly dominated by macro and cost factors and is expected to perform strongly [11] 3.7 Zinc - The zinc price had a weak rebound. The end - of - war signals between the US and Iran have led to a rebound in market sentiment. The overseas zinc mine supply is tightening, the cost support is stable, the supply and demand are both increasing, and the zinc price is expected to have a weak rebound in the short - term [12][13] 3.8 Lead - The lead price oscillated at a low level. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, and the supply of recycled lead is decreasing. The demand recovery is weak, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is dull, and the lead price is expected to oscillate at a low level [14] 3.9 Tin - The tin price had a weak rebound. The end - of - war signals have led to a rebound in market sentiment. The tin mine supply is gradually recovering, the refined tin supply is increasing steadily, and the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. The tin price is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [15] 3.10 Nickel - The nickel price oscillated narrowly. The overall conflict situation is cooling down, the overseas risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar has fallen, which has boosted the metal market. The cost support of high - nickel iron is strong, but the downstream demand recovery is less than expected, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [16][17] 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillated widely. The market sentiment has cooled down, the supply is increasing, the demand resistance to high - priced raw materials is increasing, and the inventory is at a low level. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely [18] 3.12 Steel and Iron - Steel: The steel price is expected to oscillate. The PMI has returned to the expansion range, the terminal demand is in a weak recovery, and the supply and demand situation of different varieties is different [19] - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The overseas port inventory has decreased, the iron water production has increased, the steel mill profit has recovered, and the raw material demand is rising [20][21] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate. The end - of - war signals between the US and Iran have led to a decline in energy prices, which has affected the coking coal and coke prices. The upstream production is increasing steadily, the downstream demand is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing [22] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The new - season US soybean planting area estimate is slightly lower than expected, the spill - over effect of the Middle East conflict on fertilizer and fuel prices is emerging, and the domestic soybean supply is increasing. The soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [23][24] 3.15 Palm Oil - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Indonesia will restart the B50 bio - diesel policy, which has greatly boosted market sentiment. The Malaysian palm oil export demand in March was good, which is conducive to inventory reduction [25][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - The trading data of various metals on the previous day, including contract closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, are provided [27] 3.17 Industrial Data - The industrial data of various metals, such as inventory, spot price, and basis, on March 31 and March 30 are provided, including the comparison of data changes between the two days [28][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the prices of treasury bond futures generally rose. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 26.15 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an increased amount last week. Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, and the capital market remained loose. The market risk appetite increased due to the news of a potential cease - fire in the Middle East. The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in the first two months of this year increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing a continuous recovery. Looking ahead, there is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. With the gradual easing of the Middle East situation, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, the T2606 contract rose by 0.14%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed. The open interest of T2606 increased by 9009 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 1bp, DR007 rate decreased by 1.77bp, and GC007 rate decreased by 1.8bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 1.24bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 45.58bp [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds declined. The 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 9bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 1.2bp [2]. 3.4 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 30, the central bank carried out 26.95 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 26.15 billion yuan. In the future, the central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [3]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US President said that Iran had agreed to most of the content of the cease - fire plan, but Iran had different views, and the situation was still uncertain [3]. - **Economic Data**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in the first two months of this year increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise efficiency continued to recover [3]. - **Tax Policy**: The Ministry of Finance plans to formulate and revise laws such as the local surtax law [3]. - **Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the tax - free shopping for outbound tourists and promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption [3]. - **Local Government Debt**: As of March 30, local governments issued about 0.96 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts, accounting for nearly half of the planned issuance scale this year [3]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: In the money market, most interest rates declined. The yields of US treasury bonds also declined across the board [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices may show a weakening oscillation due to the Middle - East war situation suppressing market risk appetite. However, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices [1]. Nickel - The Indonesian export tax news has brought short - term sentiment boost, but the macro - economic outlook is uncertain. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory digestion is insufficient. The nickel price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 134,000 - 142,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong recently. The news and the tight raw material supply provide support. The steel mill production is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract referring to 14,200 - 14,800 [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance has boosted market sentiment. The fundamental reality has weakened marginally in the short - term but still has resilience. The price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 160,000 - 172,000 [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The short - term main contract is expected to run in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by supply - side constraints. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April, and the core operating range of Shanghai aluminum this week is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It may show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the second quarter, and the short - term price is expected to run in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Copper - The copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the inventory pressure has weakened. But the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 [13]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The contradiction lies between the mine and smelting ends. The smelting cost supports the zinc price. The downstream may replenish inventory in the peak season, and the export space may be opened. The zinc price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound on the right - hand side can be arranged [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in the second quarter, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [16]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.17%, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 10%. The import loss decreased by 19.10% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 and 2605 - 2606 decreased, while those of 2606 - 2607 and 2607 - 2608 increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and refined tin imports increased by 96.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse inventory decreased, while LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.25%, and the import loss of futures decreased by 23.75% [2]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.69%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 11.34% [2]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.03%, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 remained unchanged, 2605 - 2606 increased by 10, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 80 [2]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory and social inventory increased, while bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 10, 2605 - 2606 increased by 20, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 10 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased by 44.07%, and stainless steel net exports increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and cold - rolled social inventory increased slightly [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% and 0.98% respectively. The basis decreased by 1391.43% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 1860, 2605 - 2606 decreased by 380, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 380 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57% [7]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.28%, and the import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased by 286.2 [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of AL 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15, AL 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and AL 2606 - 2607 increased by 15 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.75%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.41%, and the spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 75 [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 12.24% [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.01%, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 316.57% [13]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 50, 2605 - 2606 increased by 40, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 20 [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, and imports decreased by 24.95% [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory, bonded area inventory, and SHFE inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.62%, and the import loss decreased by 80.83 [15]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 20, 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 5 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, and imports decreased by 81.26% [15]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.24%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.24% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis increased [16]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of the main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 30% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the export volume decreased by 27.44% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 4.90%, and social inventory increased by 1.27% [16]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 3.33% [17]. - **Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread**: The main contract increased by 0.39%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 242.86% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, and the export volume increased by 20.51% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.49%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.42% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to show a downward trend in oscillation. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise in oscillation. The lead price may decline further. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation. The tin price is expected to be weak. The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by resource - side issues, and the future trend needs further observation. The price of alumina is recommended to be observed. The stainless - steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term [3][6][9][13][14][16][19][22][25][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.17% at $12,141 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 95,490 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 425 to 360,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 52,000 to 359,000 tons, and the daily warrant continued to decrease by 9,000 to 237,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly narrowed to 95 yuan per ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong rose to 100 yuan per ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 100 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 790 yuan per ton, widening compared to the previous period [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The repeated Middle - East situation suppresses the copper price on the sentiment side. The tight supply of copper ore remains, and the domestic inventory is desirably reduced after the copper price decline. The supply and substitution of scrap copper are reduced, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price may show a downward trend in oscillation. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 94,000 - 97,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars per ton [3] Aluminum Market Information - The repeated Middle - East situation pushed up the crude - oil price, and the rising energy cost pushed up the aluminum price. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.92% at $3,284 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,085 yuan per ton. The position of the SHFE weighted aluminum contract decreased by 2,000 to 556,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 3,000 to 408,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places slightly increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods on Friday decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 90 yuan per ton, and the buying sentiment was relatively positive. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 421,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M premium rose to $61.2 per ton [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The negotiation between the US and Iran continues, and the military action persists. The crude - oil price remains strong, and the market risk preference is still under pressure. The aluminum price is supported by energy costs and supply disturbances on the one hand and suppressed by sentiment on the other hand. Overseas aluminum - plant maintenance and production cuts will bring substantial production reduction, and the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend increased supply concerns. The overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream operating rate continues to increase, and the processing fee of aluminum rods returns to a relatively normal level, which helps inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,800 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,220 - 3,400 US dollars per ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2605 contract closed up 0.88% at 22,960 yuan per ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position increased to 16,800 lots, and the trading volume was 10,600 lots. The trading volume increased, and the warrant decreased by 2,400 to 36,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 contract and the AD2605 contract was 975 yuan per ton, slightly widening compared to the previous period. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area increased, and the import price of ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per ton. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 7,900 to 45,800 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places slightly increased to 31,300 tons [8] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has recovered. The demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and tight raw - material supply, the price is expected to rise in oscillation in the short - term [9] Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,553 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 113,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,907.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,325 yuan per ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,325 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead - ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan per ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancellation warrant was 14,300 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 135 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.256, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was 591.16 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to March 23 [11] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has increased, and the production of primary smelting has remained stable. The visible inventory of lead waste has increased, and the production of recycled lead has recovered. The inventories of primary and recycled lead - ingot factories have decreased, and the social inventory of lead ingots has also decreased. The downstream battery enterprises stock up at low prices, and the low operating rate of recycled - smelting enterprises provides short - term support for the spot market. However, the current high SHFE - LME price ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in exported batteries. The high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. There is a possibility that the lead price will decline further [12][13] Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.33% at 23,377 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 177,500 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S zinc rose 33.5 to $3,105.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 210,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,210 yuan per ton. The basis in Shanghai was - 60 yuan per ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 90 yuan per ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc - ingot futures inventory was 95,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan per ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 115,700 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancellation warrant was 5,700 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 16.14 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 64.55 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.09, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 2,327.99 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons compared to March 23. After the continuous decline of SHFE zinc, the downstream actively replenished inventory at low prices [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased marginally, the import TC of zinc concentrate has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stopped falling and stabilized. There was a large - scale delivery of LME zinc again, and the structural risk has been further reduced. After the zinc price declined, the downstream replenished inventory to a certain extent, and the zinc price stopped falling and stabilized in the short - term. However, the basis and monthly price difference of SHFE zinc have not increased significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent purchases is expected to be limited. The current high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation at the current price level [14] Tin Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 362,460 yuan per ton, a 3.71% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a moderate recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the operating rate is more obvious. Although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in actual terminal purchases is still relatively limited, and there has not been a substantial recovery. Last week, the tin price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving the inventory to significantly decrease. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared to the previous period [15] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply has improved marginally compared to before the Spring Festival, it is still constrained by the tight raw - material supply. Under the pressure on both the ore and recycled - material sides, the release of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand has improved marginally, and the short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. The downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for the tin price. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, the global risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the tin price will be weak. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 320,000 - 390,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 49,000 US dollars per ton [16] Nickel Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 137,100 yuan per ton, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were weakly stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 5,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $71.64 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $32.5 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of ferronickel slightly decreased. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,083 yuan per nickel point, remaining unchanged from the previous day [18] Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term US inflation expectation, and risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will also weaken. However, in the medium - term, the improvement trend of the global nickel - element supply - demand situation is certain, and the nickel price has strong support at the bottom, with limited downward space. Short - selling is not recommended. The operating range of the SHFE nickel price this week is expected to be 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell high and buy low and mainly conduct range operations [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On March 27, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium - carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 159,916 yuan, a 2.35% increase from the previous working day and a 10.35% increase within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 156,000 - 164,700 yuan, and the average price increased by 3,700 yuan (+2.36%) compared to the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 153,000 - 161,500 yuan, and the average price increased by 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, a 7.15% increase from the previous closing price and a 17.09% increase within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,320 US dollars per ton, and the average price increased by 1.13% compared to the previous day and 7.71% within the week [21] Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the contradiction in the lithium - carbonate market is concentrated on the resource side. The short - term pressure of domestic lithium - salt spot shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are disturbances in major resource - producing areas such as Jiangxi, Zimbabwe, and Australia, and long - term concerns have increased. The growth momentum of domestic lithium - carbonate production remains unchanged, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. However, whether the de - stocking trend has been completely reversed still needs to be observed. On the ore side, if the resumption of lithium - ore production in Jiangxi is postponed, the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral - export ban fails, and Australia reduces production due to energy - supply problems, the sustainability of domestic lithium - salt supply will be under pressure. The lithium - battery demand is expected to remain strong. Multiple new car models will be launched in the second quarter, and the overdraft effect of electric - vehicle sales may be alleviated. There are expectations of new orders for commercial vehicles and household energy storage. In the future

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The rebound of precious metal prices is mainly catalyzed by the cooling of liquidity concerns due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the market risk appetite has been significantly restored. However, geopolitical risks still exist, and the US does not seem to have the initiative to end the war at any time. If the US and Iran cannot reach an agreement on the armistice conditions, the possibility of conflict escalation cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near future, and the Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 980 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro logic to gold, and its price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract fluctuating between 17,500 yuan/kilogram and 18,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Iran's officials have denied the negotiation with the US. Iran has put forward five conditions for a ceasefire, including the enemy's cessation of "aggression and assassination", prevention of war recurrence, compensation, full end of military operations on all fronts, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Non-belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination, and COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq [1] - Futures market: On March 25, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1013.96 yuan/gram, up 3.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1016.92 yuan/gram, up 0.29% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 16,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,111.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 967,928 lots, and the open interest was 214,737 lots. The night session closed at 18,000 yuan/kilogram, down 0.61% from the afternoon session [2] - US Treasury yields and spreads: On March 25, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.338%, up 0.79 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.451%, up 0.17 BP from the previous trading day [3] - Position and trading volume changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange: On March 25, 2026, on the Au2606 contract, the long position increased by 10,730 lots, and the short position increased by 1,662 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 529,275 lots, down 28.14% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long position increased by 1,201 lots, and the short position increased by 2,174 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,496,495 lots, down 22.99% from the previous trading day [4] - Precious metal ETF holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 1,052.99 tons, up 0.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,514 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Precious metal arbitrage tracking: On March 25, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -21.27 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -716.96 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.99, down 2.12% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 63.16, down 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] - Fundamental data: On March 25, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 80,426 kilograms, down 8.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 456,886 kilograms, down 14.48% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, leading to high - level fluctuations in the US dollar index [1][11]. - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, but the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed [2][15]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations [3][16]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends [4][20][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A private credit fund managed by Ares Management had a record - breaking monthly loss in February, indicating the deterioration of the $1.8 trillion private credit market [10]. - Milan believes that the current monetary policy is suppressing the economy and advocates a 1 - percentage - point interest rate cut this year [11]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, and the US dollar is fluctuating at a high level. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to fluctuate at a high level [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3900 points, and the market had more than 4800 rising stocks [13]. - Iran stated that non - hostile ships meeting certain conditions can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the market's concern about crude oil supply shortages and causing a significant rise in risk assets. However, the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clear before making right - side trades [15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 78.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 58 billion yuan on the day, and will also conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [16]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations. It is recommended to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sintering machine renovation project of Henan Iron and Steel's Zhoukou Base was successfully put into operation [18]. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The progress of the iron ore negotiation has led to a decline in ore prices and steel prices. The steel product fundamentals lack clear drivers, and the downstream terminal demand is limited. It is recommended to hold a small - position wait - and - see attitude [18][19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northern Shanxi market has increased. The short - term price is affected by international crude oil prices, and in the long - term, the upward movement of coking coal prices is still restricted. It is necessary to focus on the resumption of molten iron production, terminal demand fulfillment, and coal mine resumption progress [20][21]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic and foreign trade corn inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, while the inventories of imported sorghum and barley increased [22]. - The supply of corn is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions also provide bottom - line support for the corn market. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [23][25]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The average price of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a clear trading theme, and they mainly follow macro - level fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use option positions, and wait and see for palladium. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [26][27]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead showed a discount of $35.03 per ton on March 24. The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The downstream consumption is facing the off - season, but there is cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips, preferably on the right - hand side, and wait and see for arbitrage [28]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate TC price guidance range for the end of the second quarter of 2026. The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a long - short position in the domestic - foreign market in the mid - line [30][31]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining plans to put the Manono lithium mine in the Congo into production in June this year, and Yahua Group signed a five - year lithium spodumene concentrate purchase agreement [32]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the price correction [34][35]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang钼业 released the production guidance for its main products in 2026. The copper price is affected by the Middle East war situation and is expected to continue to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage [36][39]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin ingot exports increased in February. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the short - term price decline was blocked by inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the macro - trend [39][42]. 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - According to EIA weekly data, the US propane/propylene inventory increased. The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the complex geopolitical situation [43][45]. 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. After the geopolitical risk premium is gradually squeezed out, there may still be opportunities for low - buying in the future [45][46]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to supply risks [47][48]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping resumed booking services for some countries in the Middle East, but it does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. The market's focus is still on the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz [49][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic sentiment in the Asia-Pacific markets driven by hopes for negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict, with significant increases in major stock indices and commodity prices [2][3]. Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific markets saw collective gains, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 2.81%, the KOSPI index increasing by 2.72%, and the S&P/ASX 200 index up by 1.66% [2]. - Notable stock performances included SK Hynix rising nearly 4%, Samsung Electronics increasing over 2%, and SoftBank Group gaining over 3% [3]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose by 1.72% to $4549 per ounce, while silver prices increased by over 2% to $72.83 per ounce [2]. U.S.-Iran Negotiations - The U.S. proposed a one-month ceasefire to negotiate a 15-point plan aimed at ending the conflict with Iran, although Iran has not yet responded [2][3]. - The U.S. is simultaneously increasing military presence in the region, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit and amphibious assault ships set to arrive in the Middle East [5][6]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing optimism due to the potential for de-escalation, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this optimism, as it may lead to mispricing of risks [3][4]. - Retail trading has cooled since the onset of the Iran conflict, with a notable net sell-off of $2.06 million in stocks, marking the first net sell day since November 2023 [3]. Military Developments - The U.S. is deploying over 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, which is part of a rapid response force capable of global deployment within 18 hours [6].

Market Overview - Middle East conflict escalated, leading to significant market volatility with the Hang Seng Index dropping 894 points (3.5%) to close at 24,382 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 159 points (3.3%) to 4,712 points, with total market turnover increasing to 368.7 billion HKD from 342.5 billion HKD the previous day[1] - Major tech stocks like Tencent and Alibaba saw declines of 1.9% and 3.2% respectively, reflecting worsening market sentiment[1] Oil and Gold Market - International oil prices rose, benefiting China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) which increased by 0.4%[1] - Gold prices fell below 4,100 USD/ounce, erasing all gains since the beginning of the year, with Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining dropping 5.0% and 3.4% respectively[1] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors reported a 38% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4, achieving a gross margin of 21.3% and a non-GAAP net profit of 510 million CNY, marking its first profitable quarter[3] - Other automotive stocks like Geely and Chery saw gains between 0.4% and 2.7% despite broader market declines[3] Energy Sector - The renewable energy and utility sectors experienced widespread declines, particularly affected by rising energy prices, with companies like China Gas and Xinyi Solar facing cost pressures[3] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry also fell in line with the market, with China National Pharmaceutical Group reporting a revenue of 575.17 billion CNY, a 1.6% year-on-year decline, while net profit increased by 1.5% to 7.16 billion CNY[4]