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铝:向上承压,氧化铝:关注矿端影响,铸造铝合金:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Upward pressure [1] - Alumina: Focus on the impact of the ore end [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Range-bound [1] Core Views of the Report - The tariff effect has not yet appeared. The US PPI in June hit a new low in nearly a year, with a flat month-on-month rate, deflation in services, and a moderate increase in commodities. The previous data revision and the recovery of intermediate demand commodities may still indicate potential future risks. Tariff inflation may not have disappeared but only been "delayed" [2] - The South Korean government plans to make "strategic concessions" in tariff negotiations with the US, which has been strongly opposed by the South Korean agricultural community [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For aluminum, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,475, down 245 from the previous day; the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M was 2,576, down 8. The trading volume and positions of related contracts showed different changes, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio decreased to 1.88% [1] - For alumina, the closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,111, down 54. The trading volume and positions also changed [1] - For aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 19,820, up 30. The trading volume and positions changed accordingly [1] Spot Market - For electrolytic aluminum, the enterprise profit and loss was 909.14, up 217.38. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 483,000 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - For alumina, the domestic average price was 3,191, and the prices of imported alumina and bauxite from different regions showed different trends. The profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi was 249, up 5 [1] - For aluminum alloy, the theoretical profit of ADC12 was -340, down 2. The inventory of three places totaled 27,996, up 404 [1] - For caustic soda, the price of Shaanxi ion-exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,610, with no change [1] Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: -1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [2]