Group 1 - The report by PwC indicates that U.S. consumers are expected to reduce holiday spending significantly, marking the largest decline since the pandemic due to rising living costs and tariffs [1][3] - Approximately 84% of surveyed consumers plan to cut back on spending in the next six months, with an average holiday spending decrease of 5.3% compared to last year [3][4] - The most significant reduction in holiday spending is observed among Generation Z, with a planned decrease of 23% compared to the previous year [3] Group 2 - Retailers are facing challenges as 84% of respondents anticipate cutting back on expenditures, particularly in clothing, high-priced items, and dining out [3] - The overall prices of holiday decorations, including Christmas trees and lights, are expected to rise by 15% to 20% due to the impact of tariffs [5] - Retailers may reduce the number and variety of products available and could initiate promotional activities earlier in September and October to manage demand and avoid shortages in December [5]

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, suggesting he should focus on being a DJ rather than managing a major financial institution [1] - Trump claimed that tariffs have generated trillions of dollars in revenue for the U.S. without causing inflation or economic harm, attributing costs primarily to businesses and foreign governments [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, indicating a slowdown from June's 0.3% [3] - Goldman Sachs' report estimated that as of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of tariff costs, consumers 22%, and foreign exporters 14%, with projections indicating a shift in burden by October [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs declined to comment on Trump's remarks [4] - Trump's recent criticisms extend to other corporate executives, including Intel's CEO, indicating a pattern of demanding alignment with government policies [5] - David Wagner from Aptus Capital Advisors stated that Trump's comments on banks should not influence overall investment decisions, highlighting the complexity of economic data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is hastening trade negotiations with multiple countries as the August 1 deadline for new tariffs approaches, but substantial agreements remain elusive [1][11]. Trade Agreements - President Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, but these agreements lack critical details and have not been formally signed [2][6][8]. - The U.S. and Japan reached what Trump described as the largest trade agreement in history, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its agricultural market [3][4]. - The agreement with the Philippines involves the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on imports from the Philippines while the Philippines opens its market to U.S. goods with zero tariffs [6]. - Indonesia's agreement reportedly includes a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports to the U.S., but confirmation from Indonesian leadership on the specifics is lacking [8]. - Vietnam is still negotiating to further reduce tariff rates, indicating that agreements are not yet finalized [9]. Impact on Other Countries - The U.S. has pressured Vietnam and Indonesia to reach agreements, but the details remain vague and unsatisfactory to some parties [7][10]. - The U.K. was the first country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. since the trade war began, but the agreement has been criticized for lacking substance [10]. European Union Response - The EU is considering countermeasures against the U.S. if trade negotiations fail, with potential tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports [12]. - Germany emphasizes the need for a fair and reliable agreement with the U.S. to avoid significant losses [13]. Economic Effects - The U.S. is experiencing rising consumer prices due to tariffs, with an effective tariff rate of 20.6%, the highest since 1910, leading to projected losses of $2,800 per household by 2025 [16]. - The inflationary impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with rising prices in consumer goods, particularly in furniture and clothing [16].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) increasing by 2.9%, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - Economists attribute the rising inflation to frequent tariff increases by the U.S. government, with expectations that inflation will worsen in the second half of the year as the "tariff effect" becomes more pronounced [1] - The Federal Reserve's national economic conditions report indicates that inflationary pressures are spreading across all regions, with many businesses passing on costs to consumers through price hikes or additional fees [1] Group 2 - Major retailers in the U.S., such as Walmart, Best Buy, and Costco, have raised prices due to tariff-related cost pressures, with some Walmart products seeing price increases of up to 51% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that both businesses and consumers will ultimately bear the burden of tariffs, with expectations that inflation could rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months [2] - Concerns are growing that the cumulative effects of tariffs will further increase inflation, weaken consumer purchasing power, and hinder economic recovery, especially following new tariffs imposed on countries like Canada [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms [4] Group 1: Deep Dive on "Anti-Involution" - The market's understanding of "anti-involution" is largely misaligned, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to incorrect conclusions [4] - Besides production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, "anti-involution" encompasses various "hidden strategies" that are not widely recognized [4] Group 2: Economic Trends and Data Analysis - Recent economic data from June reveals five notable anomalies, indicating new changes in the economy that may not be immediately apparent [21] - The U.S. inflation data for June suggests that the third quarter will serve as a critical period for validating the effects of tariffs on inflation [24] - Domestic infrastructure projects have shown a continuous recovery, indicating a potential positive trend in construction activities [26] Group 3: Export Dynamics - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting, with emerging markets nearing the end of this phase while the U.S. begins to see a resurgence in export activities [13][14] - The importance of "strategic resources" in global trade is increasing, prompting discussions on which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Upward pressure [1] - Alumina: Focus on the impact of the ore end [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Range-bound [1] Core Views of the Report - The tariff effect has not yet appeared. The US PPI in June hit a new low in nearly a year, with a flat month-on-month rate, deflation in services, and a moderate increase in commodities. The previous data revision and the recovery of intermediate demand commodities may still indicate potential future risks. Tariff inflation may not have disappeared but only been "delayed" [2] - The South Korean government plans to make "strategic concessions" in tariff negotiations with the US, which has been strongly opposed by the South Korean agricultural community [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For aluminum, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,475, down 245 from the previous day; the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M was 2,576, down 8. The trading volume and positions of related contracts showed different changes, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio decreased to 1.88% [1] - For alumina, the closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,111, down 54. The trading volume and positions also changed [1] - For aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 19,820, up 30. The trading volume and positions changed accordingly [1] Spot Market - For electrolytic aluminum, the enterprise profit and loss was 909.14, up 217.38. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 483,000 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - For alumina, the domestic average price was 3,191, and the prices of imported alumina and bauxite from different regions showed different trends. The profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi was 249, up 5 [1] - For aluminum alloy, the theoretical profit of ADC12 was -340, down 2. The inventory of three places totaled 27,996, up 404 [1] - For caustic soda, the price of Shaanxi ion-exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,610, with no change [1] Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: -1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [2] - Silver: Bullish [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Bearish [2] - Lead: Neutral [2] - Tin: Bearish [2] - Aluminum: Neutral [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] Core Views - Gold is expected to oscillate upward, while silver is predicted to break through and rise. The copper market is cautious, with prices oscillating. Zinc is under pressure, and the downside of lead may be limited. Tin prices are weakening, and aluminum faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention to the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy is in range - bound oscillation. Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro - environment [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510, 黄金T + D, and Comex黄金2510 were 776.66 (down 0.48%), 772.20 (down 0.51%), and 3354.20 (up 0.71%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed to varying degrees, and the inventory of some contracts remained stable. For silver, the closing prices of沪银2510, 白银T + D, and Comex白银2510 were 9152 (down 0.79%), 9109 (down 0.82%), and 38.125 (up 0.37%) respectively. The trading volume, positions, and inventory also had corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: Powell's dismissal rumor caused market chaos, with the US stock market first falling and then rising, the US dollar and US bond yields falling, and gold prices rising. Trump's possible dismissal of Powell and tariff - related news also affected the market [6][7][8]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,970 (down 0.15%), and that of the伦铜3M电子盘 was 9,637 (down 0.21%). The trading volume, positions, inventory, and price spreads of relevant contracts all changed. China's copper imports in June and the cumulative imports from January to June showed different trends, and the copper concentrate production in Azerbaijan increased significantly [9][11]. - **News**: Trump's possible dismissal of Powell and First Quantum Minerals' investment in Prospect Resources were reported [9]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22030 (down 0.25%), and that of the伦锌3M电子盘 was 2701.5 (down 1.13%). The trading volume, positions, inventory, and price spreads of relevant contracts changed, and the prices of related products such as zinc alloy and zinc oxide also decreased [12]. - **News**: Trump planned to send tariff letters to more than 150 countries, and the EU considered using the "anti - coercion tool" [13]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16895 (down 0.21%), and that of the伦铅3M电子盘 was 2001 (down 0.20%). The trading volume, positions, inventory, and price spreads of relevant contracts changed, and the prices of related products such as recycled lead decreased [15]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, Trump's tariff - related news affected the market [16]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 263,960 (up 0.27%), and that of the伦锡3M电子盘 was 32,990 (down 0.81%). The trading volume, positions, inventory, and price spreads of relevant contracts changed, and the spot prices of tin decreased [19]. - **News**: Similar to precious metals, market - affecting news such as Powell's dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff - related news were reported [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: For aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20475, and that of theLME铝3M was 2576. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and price spreads of relevant contracts changed, and the production and cost - related data of electrolytic aluminum also had corresponding changes. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3111, and relevant trading volume, positions, and price data changed. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the主力 contract was 19820, and relevant data also changed [22]. - **News**: The US PPI data and South Korea's possible strategic concession in tariff negotiations with the US were reported [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the closing price of the沪镍主力 was 120,550, and relevant trading volume, positions, and price data of related products in the industrial chain changed. For stainless steel, the closing price of the主力 was 12,670, and relevant data also changed [25]. - **News**: News such as Canada's possible suspension of nickel exports to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the production and environmental issues of nickel - related factories in Indonesia were reported [25][26][27].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of high-level opening up as articulated by Xi Jinping in the publication of "Qiushi" magazine [7] - Xi Jinping expressed condolences to Nigerian President Tinubu over the passing of former Nigerian President Buhari, highlighting diplomatic relations [8] - The Central Urban Work Conference has sparked significant reactions, with various sectors calling for the implementation of its spirit to achieve a new path for urban modernization with Chinese characteristics [9] Group 2 - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, is focusing on policies to strengthen domestic circulation and has reviewed the preliminary rectification of issues found in the 2024 central budget execution [11] - Li Qiang attended the 8th China-Australia CEO Roundtable, indicating ongoing business engagement between the two nations [12] - Wang Huning participated in discussions aimed at expanding domestic demand, reflecting a strategic focus on economic growth [13] Group 3 - China's consumer market showed increased vitality in the first half of the year, becoming a major driver of economic growth, supported by various policies to boost demand [14] - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing, featuring over 170 foreign delegations, indicating a growing interest in international trade and collaboration [15] Group 4 - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training initiative is being launched, aiming to provide subsidized training for over 30 million people by the end of 2027, focusing on high-demand industries [19] - ExxonMobil's Huizhou ethylene project phase one has officially commenced production, featuring advanced technology that significantly reduces emissions [19]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US June CPI report is anticipated to be a critical indicator of inflation trends, particularly in relation to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. A significant increase in CPI could validate the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, while a lower-than-expected reading may provide ammunition for Trump to criticize Fed Chair Powell [2][3]. Group 1: CPI Data Expectations - The consensus among the Federal Reserve and private sector forecasters is that inflation will rise in the summer as companies pass on the costs of Trump’s tariffs to consumers. Previous measures to mitigate these costs are losing effectiveness [5]. - The median estimates for the June CPI report suggest a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, and a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in May [5][6]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Financial markets are on alert for the CPI report, with expectations that rising inflation could lead to a cautious stance from Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts. The next three months are deemed crucial for inflation data [9]. - A higher-than-expected CPI report could delay the Fed's rate cuts and potentially hinder the recent upward momentum in the US stock market [10]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the breadth of inflationary pressures in the goods sector, as this will influence reactions in the bond market and overall market sentiment [10][11].