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昆药集团:经营趋势持续向好,未来发展值得期待-20250313
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-12 04:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.40 billion RMB for 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million RMB [1]. - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms and enhancing its operational systems, aiming for a more efficient and integrated organization [2]. - The company’s core products are expected to see increased sales due to stable contract renewals in national traditional Chinese medicine procurement [2]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.07 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a non-deductible net profit of approximately 130 million RMB, a significant improvement from 25 million RMB in Q4 2023 [1]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to be 9.07% in 2025, with a steady increase in net profit margins [6]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on channel reforms and enhancing distributor management, which is expected to support the growth of core product sales [2]. - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo is anticipated to strengthen the company’s market position and product offerings [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [3]. - The company is expected to enter a new growth phase in 2025, driven by the successful implementation of its channel reforms and the anticipated increase in sales volume of core products [3].