证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-03 股票投资评级 买入 |首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 华润三九 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 30.89 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）16.70 | / 16.62 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）516 | / 513 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 51.82 / 30.84 | | 资产负债率(%) | 37.0% | | 市盈率 | 11.75 | | 第一大股东 | 华润医药控股有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 华润三九(000999) ...

机构简介： 盘京投资成立于2016年，是中国优秀的私募证券投资基金管理人之一，在中国证券投资基金业协会登记 注册的私募证券投资基金管理人编号为P1034296。公司由多位长期业绩卓越、并且具备相同价值观的 资深投资人创办，是一家以合伙人制度为基础，平台化运营的投资管理机构。盘京投资立足中国证券市 场，聚焦中国上市公司投资机会，同时在海外市场尤其是中概股有广泛布局。xa0公司的建设以投研为 导向，以深度产业和个股研究为投资决策唯一依据，搭建领先于同行的内部研究团队。同时，公司拥有 广泛的外部研究资源，与国内各大顶级券商研究所建立了良好的投研服务关系，通过深入研究发掘并收 获根植中国经济的商业和投资机会，依靠扎实的价值判断穿越不同市场周期，坚持运用产业资本思维投 资，期望为客户创造长期可持续的稳定良好回报。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 根据市场公开信息及6月25日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募盘京投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 1）昆药集团 （盘京投资参与公司现场参观&&现场交流） 调研纪要：公司紧抓 ...

上 市 公 司 医药生物 2025 年 06 月 19 日 昆药集团 (600422) ——老牌中药企业，深耕银发健康领域 投资要点： | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.06 | | 资产负债率% | 45.99 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 757/757 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 06-18 07-18 08-18 09-18 10-18 11-18 12-18 01-18 02-18 03-18 04-18 05-18 06-18 -50% 0% 50% 昆药集团 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8,401 | 1,608 | 9,176 | 10,063 | 11,060 | | 同比增长率（%） | -0.3 | -16.5 ...

作为国内领先的新型医疗健康服务企业，京东健康始终致力于通过数智化手段提升优质医疗健康服务的 可及性。此次联合昆中药发布白皮书，不仅体现了其"以用户健康为中心"的理念，更展现了以数据驱动 行业高质量发展的担当。而昆中药作为拥有600余年历史的中药品牌，始终秉承"大药厚德·痌瘝在抱"的 使命，将传统中医药智慧与现代健康需求相结合，为情绪健康管理提供安全、有效的解决方案。 白皮书的发布，不仅是双方在"互联网+医疗健康"领域的深度探索，更是一次企业社会责任的重要实 践。未来，京东健康与昆中药将持续深化合作，推动情绪健康服务的标准化与普惠化，助力全民心理健 康水平提升。 5月19日，京东健康与百年中药老字号昆中药(昆明中药厂有限公司)联合发布《2025情绪健康白皮书》 (以下简称"白皮书")。此次合作基于双方在健康领域的深厚积累与技术创新，旨在响应"健康中国 2030"战略，聚焦日益凸显的国民情绪健康问题，为行业提供科学洞察与解决方案。 随着社会节奏加快，焦虑、抑郁等情绪问题已成为影响公众健康的重要挑战。白皮书依托京东健康的消 费者行为洞察及昆中药在传统中医药领域的专业研究，系统梳理了我国情绪健康市场的现状与发展趋 势 ...

盈利预测：我们预计公司2025-2027 年营收分别为89.69、100.76、113.26 亿元，同比增速分别为 6.75%、12.34%、12.41%，归母净利润分别为7.17、8.65、10.43 亿元，同比增速分别为10.63%、 20.68%、20.54%，对应当前股价PE 分别为16、13、11 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 点评： 1. 一季度业绩短期承压，后续业绩有望逐季度环比回升。25Q1 公司加速与华润三九的融合，重塑渠道 端销售模式，在此过程中面临阶段性压力，叠加零售药店终端整合等多重因素，致使业绩短期承压。随 着渠道协同效率、终端覆盖率及品牌产品渗透率的提升，借助大单品的带动作用，同时把握中成药集采 新标落地执行的机遇，公司将加速推进终端开发覆盖，我们看好协同多剂型和品牌优势驱动业绩回升。 2. 品牌建设助力业务发展，商道改革赋能终端覆盖。公司围绕"昆中药1381"品牌发展战略，在精品国药 领域聚焦参苓健脾胃颗粒、舒肝颗粒等大单品，借"全域媒体矩阵+精准场景营销"强化品牌定位并通过 多平台布局及合作扩大知名度；渠道建设方面，公司以"四力建设"推进商道改革，为终端覆盖与动销突 破提供基础。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in performance, with Q1 2025 revenue at 1.608 billion yuan, down 16.53% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 90 million yuan, down 31.06% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to the company's ongoing channel restructuring and transformation efforts, which are currently facing transitional pressures [6] - The company is expected to achieve sequential revenue and profit growth throughout 2025, with a projected double-digit increase in net profit for the year. This growth is anticipated as the company enhances channel efficiency and brand value through its restructuring efforts [6] - The company is actively promoting its brand renewal and has launched various marketing initiatives to enhance product visibility and reach, particularly targeting younger demographics through platforms like Xiaohongshu and Bilibili [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, 8.826 billion yuan in 2025 (up 5.06%), 9.770 billion yuan in 2026 (up 10.69%), and 10.753 billion yuan in 2027 (up 10.06%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 648 million yuan in 2024 to 718 million yuan in 2025 (up 10.83%), 826 million yuan in 2026 (up 15.06%), and 962 million yuan in 2027 (up 16.39%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 0.95 yuan in 2025, 1.09 yuan in 2026, and 1.27 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.94 in 2024 to 12.09 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over the forecast period [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Despite short-term performance pressure due to channel transformation, the company is expected to benefit from product volume potential under the empowerment of China Resources Sanjiu, with an overall positive operational trend anticipated [4]. - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on brand development and product volume growth, particularly with its strategic products like "Kunzhong Medicine 1381" and "777 Xuesaitong Soft Capsules" [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to multiple factors, including channel transformation and the impact of national Chinese medicine procurement expansion [2]. Operational Analysis - The company is in the final phase of integration with China Resources Sanjiu, with further breakthroughs in channel transformation expected to enhance terminal coverage and performance in Q2 2025 [2]. - The focus on brand positioning as a "leading national medicine" and the emphasis on terminal coverage and sales are expected to drive healthy growth for core products [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.072 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company experienced a revenue decline of 16.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.61 billion RMB and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The integration with China Resources Sanjiu is in its final phase, and while short-term performance is under pressure due to channel transformation, there are expectations for improvement as new procurement standards are implemented in Q2 [2][4]. - The company is focusing on brand development and enhancing terminal coverage, particularly for key products like "Kunzhong Medicine 1381" and "777 Xuesaitong Soft Capsules," which are expected to see healthy growth [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline is attributed to multiple factors, including channel transformation and the ongoing integration with China Resources Sanjiu [2]. Brand Development - The company is committed to its brand strategy, focusing on key products to strengthen its position as a leading national medicine brand [3]. - The launch of new packaging for "777 Xuesaitong" is expected to enhance brand recognition and drive sales growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.072 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [4].