Core Insights - The article highlights the foresight of Pan Shiyi in 2018 regarding the real estate market, predicting risks that have now materialized, such as supply-demand imbalance and unreasonable return rates [1] - It discusses three future trends in the real estate market that will significantly impact ordinary people [3][5][7] Group 1: Market Trends - The first trend involves the expiration of business loans, which will affect the second-hand housing market as many individuals who borrowed low-interest loans to buy homes will face challenges in refinancing due to declining property values [3] - The second trend indicates a complete differentiation in the housing market, where high-quality properties will appreciate while lower-quality ones will depreciate, influenced by factors such as building age and location [5] - The third trend suggests an increase in demolition efforts to reduce inventory, with a shift towards using housing vouchers instead of cash compensation for displaced residents, which will help developers recover funds and manage inventory [7] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current inventory of unsold new homes exceeds 7.6 billion square meters, requiring approximately 24 months for absorption, which is nearly double the situation in 2018 [7] - The article notes that the real estate market is transitioning from an investment-driven model to one focused on residential needs, with a significant decline in home-buying intentions among younger individuals [7] - It concludes that while the golden era of real estate is over, the market is not collapsing but rather returning to a healthier state, allowing housing to no longer dictate the lives of ordinary people [7]