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潘石屹预言应验了!不出意外,5年后,楼市或大概率迎来3大趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 00:03
现在回头看2018年潘石屹的采访,真得佩服他的眼光,当时很多房企都在喊着冲千亿、破万亿,他却卖掉400多亿物业,说对市场风险的判断不一样。 那会没人当真,直到恒大美元债暴雷、华夏蓝光接连出事,大家才反应过来,来是老潘眼光毒,他早看透了楼市的猫腻。 潘石屹当年的判断就两个常识,供需失衡,回报率不合理,2018年银行贷款利率4.9%,房租回报率却只有1%,这种倒挂根本撑不住。 还有房企借 美元外债 、赚人民币的操作,汇率一动就是灭顶之灾,现在这两点全应验了,2025年百城房价连跌十一个季度,房企全年债务到期额超 5000亿元,可不就是他说的 风险爆发了嘛。 所以不出意外,未来三年楼市会往这三个方向走,每个都和普通人息息相关。 银行续贷前要重估房子价值,原来500万的房子跌40%只剩 300 万,想续贷就得自己拿200万补差价。 拿不出的只能卖房,可现在全国二手房挂牌量都破750万套了,根本卖不动。 2025年深圳就出现过这种情况,一个小区12套房子集中抛售,每套比市场价低20万,直接把整个片区房价拉低了5%。 2020-2021年经营贷年增长20%,意味着这类房源不在少数,未来三年只要收入稍不稳定,就会有人被迫降 ...
楼价真的会翻五倍吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 11:55
Group 1 - The recent surge in discussions about the real estate market is not due to sales performance but rather the topics being widely discussed, with some claiming prices could increase fivefold [2] - Despite various favorable policies and a significant issuance of long-term special bonds, data from January to May fell short of expectations, with only land transfer fees increasing while all other metrics declined [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a continued decline in overall prices by 25% and a 40% drop in sales in the coming years, leading to a resurgence of optimistic narratives about the real estate market [4] Group 2 - The Chinese real estate market has historically been influenced by policies, but recent failures in these policies suggest that significant price increases are unlikely [6] - The future trend of the real estate market will depend on the balance between supply and demand, with a focus on increasing monetary flow to stimulate demand [8] - While there is a possibility of monetary intervention to stabilize the market, it is unlikely to lead to substantial price increases, as such measures may result in greater long-term crises [8]
被李嘉诚说中了,凡手持2套房以上的中国家庭,未来或注定3种结局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-15 18:11
Core Insights - Li Ka-shing's predictions about the real estate market have proven accurate, as he sold properties in 2018 anticipating a market downturn, which has since occurred with significant price declines in various regions [1][3][4] Market Trends - The real estate market has shifted dramatically, with prices in some areas dropping by over 40% from their peaks, leading to a stagnant secondary market where properties take longer to sell [3][6] - The previous "one house is hard to find" situation has changed to an oversupply of properties, altering consumer purchasing behavior towards a focus on cost-effectiveness and living conditions [3][6] Challenges for Homeowners - Families owning two properties face unprecedented challenges, including high inventory levels of 7.5 billion square meters of new homes and a surge in listings for second-hand homes, yet few buyers are interested [6][8] - Homeowners are burdened with high mortgage payments and ongoing property maintenance costs, leading to significant financial pressure, especially in a declining economic environment [8][9] - Rental income is no longer sufficient to cover expenses, as the rental market has also shifted, with many landlords struggling to find tenants and rental prices decreasing [11][9] Underlying Factors - Li Ka-shing's market foresight stems from his deep understanding of the real estate sector, allowing him to anticipate market changes effectively [13] - Demographic shifts, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, indicate a shrinking primary home-buying demographic, which will impact future demand [14] - Changing attitudes among younger generations towards homeownership, with a preference for quality of life and flexibility over buying property, are influencing market dynamics [15] Strategies for Homeowners - Homeowners should clarify the purpose of their properties, focusing on location and amenities if for personal use, or rationally analyzing investment properties to make informed decisions [17] - Diversifying investments beyond real estate, such as into gold or other financial instruments, can mitigate risks associated with the property market [18] - Staying informed about policy changes is crucial for homeowners to adapt their investment strategies proactively [19] Conclusion - The era of guaranteed profits from real estate investments has ended, but opportunities still exist for properties in prime locations with good amenities and management, which are likely to retain value [22]