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潘石屹预言应验了!不出意外,5年后,楼市或大概率迎来3大趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 00:03
现在回头看2018年潘石屹的采访,真得佩服他的眼光,当时很多房企都在喊着冲千亿、破万亿,他却卖掉400多亿物业,说对市场风险的判断不一样。 那会没人当真,直到恒大美元债暴雷、华夏蓝光接连出事,大家才反应过来,来是老潘眼光毒,他早看透了楼市的猫腻。 潘石屹当年的判断就两个常识,供需失衡,回报率不合理,2018年银行贷款利率4.9%,房租回报率却只有1%,这种倒挂根本撑不住。 还有房企借 美元外债 、赚人民币的操作,汇率一动就是灭顶之灾,现在这两点全应验了,2025年百城房价连跌十一个季度,房企全年债务到期额超 5000亿元,可不就是他说的 风险爆发了嘛。 所以不出意外,未来三年楼市会往这三个方向走,每个都和普通人息息相关。 银行续贷前要重估房子价值,原来500万的房子跌40%只剩 300 万,想续贷就得自己拿200万补差价。 拿不出的只能卖房,可现在全国二手房挂牌量都破750万套了,根本卖不动。 2025年深圳就出现过这种情况,一个小区12套房子集中抛售,每套比市场价低20万,直接把整个片区房价拉低了5%。 2020-2021年经营贷年增长20%,意味着这类房源不在少数,未来三年只要收入稍不稳定,就会有人被迫降 ...
推行房票安置,湖南宁乡出台楼市新政
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 05:45
9月30日,宁乡市住房和城乡建设局、宁乡市自然资源局、宁乡市财政局、宁乡市教育局、长沙住房公 积金管理中心宁乡市管理部、宁乡市征地服务中心等6部门联合发布《关于促进宁乡市房地产平稳健康 高质量发展的若干措施》,全面贯彻落实党中央、国务院"稳楼市"决策部署和省委、省政府工作要求, 重点围绕购住房公积金支持、住房消费补贴、"以旧换新"等十个方面推出举措,以进一步激发市场活 力,推动宁乡房地产平稳健康高质量发展。 八、开展"六进"宣传促销。围绕"宜居宁乡、幸福家园"城市营销宣传主题,开展房地产宣传进乡村、进 机关、进企业、进景区、进商超、进域外"六进"活动,策划房产促销系列活动。 九、加快"好房子"建设。以"安全、舒适、绿色、智慧"为核心指标,全方位优化容积率设置,引导激 励"好房子""好小区""好社区""好城区"建设。支持鼓励房地产开发企业开发建设立体生态住宅建筑、绿 色智能建筑等高品质住宅项目,提升人居环境品质。鼓励第四代住宅建设,容积率计算规则由自然资源 和规划主管部门依据国家有关标准规范确定。支持已出让尚未开工建设的住宅项目依法依规调整规划, 建设"好房子"。 四、持续推行房票安置。延续《宁乡市房屋征收"房 ...
允许房票跨区买物业 探索一次性转让
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-09-11 23:09
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the housing ticket policy in Huizhou represents an innovative approach to urban renewal and real estate market regulation, facilitating multiple wins for stakeholders involved [3][4][7]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Stakeholders - The housing ticket policy significantly reduces the transition time for displaced residents, allowing for quicker relocation and improved living conditions [4][9]. - For the government and demolition entities, the policy alleviates financial burdens by minimizing the need for relocation fees and transitional costs [4][5]. - The policy aids in the de-stocking of existing housing inventory, promoting a healthier real estate market and addressing the financial challenges faced by property developers [4][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The housing ticket policy is crucial for alleviating the inventory issues in the real estate sector, helping developers maintain cash flow and ensuring the delivery of unfinished projects [4][9]. - The policy accelerates urban renewal and old city renovation by reducing the lengthy relocation cycles associated with traditional compensation methods [4][5][9]. - The introduction of the housing ticket system allows for immediate access to existing homes, significantly shortening the time from relocation to occupancy [9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Experts suggest enhancing the flexibility of the housing ticket policy by allowing cross-regional property purchases and exploring mechanisms for ticket transferability [6][7]. - Increased government efforts in policy promotion and clear communication about the benefits of the housing ticket are recommended to encourage early utilization by residents [6][10]. - The establishment of a closed-loop mechanism for the use of housing tickets in the secondary market is proposed to ensure funds flow back into the new housing market [7].
房票安置成“高频词”!多地积极探索
证券时报· 2025-09-02 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing exploration of "housing vouchers" in first-tier cities, particularly in Shenzhen, as part of urban renewal policies aimed at compensating residents affected by redevelopment projects [1][6]. Group 1: Housing Voucher Policy - Housing vouchers are defined as compensation rights quantified in monetary terms for residents displaced during urban renewal, allowing them to purchase properties within specified timeframes and regions [6]. - Over 90 cities in China are expected to incorporate housing vouchers into their demolition compensation strategies by 2024, indicating a trend towards large-scale implementation of this policy [6]. Group 2: Case Study - Baishizhou Project - The Baishizhou urban renewal project in Shenzhen, covering approximately 460,000 square meters, is highlighted as a significant case, with plans for phased development [2]. - A recent survey regarding the Baishizhou project revealed options for residents to either accept government housing vouchers for relocation or receive compensation of 40,000 yuan per square meter [2][4]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Reception - Many residents in the Baishizhou and Luohu districts expressed a lack of understanding about the housing voucher system, indicating a need for clearer communication from the government [4]. - Local developers noted that utilizing housing vouchers for relocation could help address issues related to high plot ratios in urban renewal projects [4]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The central government has emphasized the importance of urban renewal, particularly in transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is expected to stimulate investment and housing consumption [8]. - Experts predict that the integration of housing vouchers and other compensation methods will significantly support real estate sales and facilitate smoother funding channels in the sector [8].
百城二手房挂牌均价同比下跌8.5%
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-12 02:29
Core Insights - The current real estate market is characterized by a significant "supply increase and demand decrease" trend, with a notable rise in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale and a decline in buyer interest [1][3][11]. Supply Side - The number of second-hand homes listed in 100 cities reached 2.5856 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.58%, with the largest increases seen in third- and fourth-tier cities (+13.26%) and new first-tier cities (+12.99%) [3][5]. - Cities like Shenzhen (+36.66%) and Quanzhou (+119.42%) experienced substantial increases in listings, indicating a growing willingness among homeowners to sell [1][7]. Demand Side - The housing search heat index fell by 3.11% year-on-year, with declines across all city tiers, particularly in second-tier cities like Nantong (-10.11%) and Hangzhou (-5.81%), reflecting a strong market hesitation [11][13]. - The overall market sentiment remains weak, despite ongoing policy initiatives aimed at stimulating demand [11][12]. Price and Liquidity - The average listing price for second-hand homes dropped by 8.5% year-on-year, with the most significant declines in second-tier cities (-10.22%), particularly in Xiamen (-18.66%) and Hefei (-14.74%) [26][28]. - The average listing duration increased by 5.23% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing an average transaction period exceeding 103 days, indicating deteriorating liquidity [19][20]. Key Characteristics - The increase in listings coupled with declining prices has led to a negative feedback loop, where buyer hesitation intensifies as prices continue to fall [1][19]. - High-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai show stronger price resilience, but liquidity risks are rising, as evidenced by a 12.23% increase in listing duration in Shanghai [1][19]. - Lower-tier cities face "double pressure" from both volume and price declines, with some cities like Quanzhou and Mianyang seeing a surge in listings without sufficient demand support, leading to significant inventory pressures [1][19]. Policy Factors - Recent policies aimed at stimulating the market, such as "old-for-new" exchanges and housing vouchers, are being implemented in various cities, but their effectiveness and execution remain to be observed [2][4].
房票安置提振楼市,上半年广州中心城区地产投资增速全部转正
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 11:16
Group 1: Economic Overview - The industrial output and real estate investment in Guangzhou have shown positive growth for the first time since last year, with recent economic data from the ten districts indicating new changes [1][7] - The overall GDP of Guangzhou reached 15080.99 billion, with a growth rate of 3.8% [3] Group 2: Real Estate Investment - Key changes in real estate investment include the central urban areas of Tianhe, Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, and Baiyun all achieving positive growth, while peripheral areas like Huadu, Panyu, and Conghua continue to experience negative growth [2][7] - Baiyun district regained its position as the fourth largest GDP contributor in the city, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing Haizhu's 5.1% [4][3] - Baiyun's real estate development investment increased by 10.5% in the first half of the year, a significant recovery from a 31.6% decline in the first quarter [5][7] Group 3: Industrial Performance - Huangpu district, known as the "industrial leader," reported a GDP of 2069.13 billion with a growth rate of 4.0%, continuing its recovery trend [4][11] - The automotive sector in Panyu and Huadu is still under pressure, with Panyu's industrial output declining by 8.4% and Huadu's by 2.2% [11][14] - The overall industrial output in Guangzhou has ended a year-long adjustment period, but recovery levels vary significantly across districts [11][16] Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Baiyun district's transportation, storage, and postal services saw an increase of 9.5%, contributing to its economic growth [4] - Baiyun Airport's passenger throughput reached 40.04 million, marking a 9.2% increase, with international passenger traffic growing by 23.9% [4] Group 5: Land Development and Policy Support - Guangzhou issued approximately 60.5 billion in government bonds for land recovery, with significant projects located in Baiyun district [6][10] - The ongoing urban village renovation projects in central districts are expected to further support real estate sales and investment [7][9]
别只盯着房价!让农民工安居,给城市留活力|陶然
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 15:39
Core Insights - The discussion focuses on the current state of land finance in China, the need for land reform, and the transformation of the real estate sector, emphasizing the shift from expansion to quality improvement in urban development [2][5][37] Land Finance and Reform - The traditional model of land finance, which relied on large-scale land acquisition and low-priced industrial land supply, is no longer sustainable, necessitating a shift towards optimizing existing land resources [5][12] - The central government has indicated a transition from extensive urban expansion to enhancing the quality and efficiency of existing land use, addressing long-standing issues in urban governance and population mobility [5][37] Solutions Proposed - Professor Tao proposed three key solutions to address the inefficiencies in land use: revitalizing underutilized industrial land, promoting urban village redevelopment, and meeting the demand for improved housing [2][3][47] - The suggestion includes a policy where landowners could transfer a significant portion of their low-efficiency industrial land to the government for redevelopment into residential areas, which would help provide affordable housing for migrant workers [50][51] Debt and Financial Management - Local governments have accumulated significant debt, with total liabilities exceeding 100 trillion yuan, leading to challenges in debt repayment and fiscal sustainability [17][19] - The discussion highlights the need for a national debt restructuring to alleviate the financial burden on local governments, allowing them to focus on essential public services rather than new construction projects [21][22] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market has seen a shift, with developers like Country Garden and Evergrande heavily investing in third and fourth-tier cities during favorable policy conditions, leading to over-leveraging and subsequent financial difficulties [30][31] - The current market environment poses challenges for real estate companies, as previous successful strategies may no longer be viable due to changing policies and market conditions [32][36] Urbanization and Population Trends - The future of urbanization in China is expected to focus on major metropolitan areas, with a need to address the housing and integration issues faced by migrant workers in these cities [37][40] - The discussion emphasizes the importance of creating conditions for migrant workers to settle in cities, which would enhance their willingness to invest in housing and contribute to urban development [54][56]
珠三角全方位提升城市综合承载力与可持续发展能力
Group 1 - The central urban work conference highlighted that urbanization in China has transitioned from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving existing urban areas and promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1] - The Pearl River Delta, as a key area of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, is seen as a national strategic core, with its urban governance and development paths serving as a model for the entire country [1][8] - Cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan are actively responding to the "People's City for the People" concept, aiming to promote urban connotation development [1][9] Group 2 - Urban village renovation is a significant challenge and breakthrough point for urban renewal in Guangdong, with Guangzhou having 272 urban villages housing around 6.7 million residents, approximately one-third of the city's population [2] - The central government has initiated policies to promote urban village renovation in mega cities, with the first local legislation on urban village renovation set to take effect in May 2024 [2] - Guangzhou is leveraging central-local cooperation projects to accelerate urban village renovations, with recent projects achieving significant progress [2] Group 3 - Dongguan has implemented its local urban village renovation regulations, emphasizing sustainable urban renewal and balancing economic and social benefits [3] - The city plans to accelerate the implementation of 40 demolition and new construction projects, alongside various improvement projects [3] Group 4 - Cities in the Pearl River Delta, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, and Huizhou, have introduced innovative "housing ticket" compensation methods to facilitate urban village renovations [4][5] - Guangzhou has successfully issued its first batch of housing tickets, with multiple districts showcasing successful cases of this compensation method [5] Group 5 - The renovation of old residential communities is also a crucial aspect of urban renewal, with various cities in the Pearl River Delta exploring collaborative governance and resident participation [6] - Guangdong Province has initiated numerous old community renovation projects, benefiting over 110,000 households [6][7] Group 6 - Dongguan plans to start 20 old community renovation projects and is focusing on modern industrial park development [7] - The central government is expected to invest approximately 3.557 billion yuan in these initiatives, marking a 49% increase year-on-year [7] Group 7 - The recent central urban work conference emphasized the need for cities to adapt to changing circumstances and achieve five key transformations in urban development [7][8] - The focus is on enhancing urban governance, promoting high-quality development, and ensuring that urban renewal efforts are people-centered [9]
鼓励直补购房首付,成都出台17条重磅楼市新政
第一财经· 2025-07-21 10:00
Core Viewpoint - Chengdu has introduced 17 new policies to stabilize the real estate market, responding to central government directives and adapting to local market conditions and buyer needs [1]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The new measures focus on four main areas: improving supply quality, meeting diverse demands, revitalizing existing stock, and leveraging the housing provident fund [1]. - The policies encourage local districts to adopt direct subsidies for down payments, marking a significant innovation in financial support for homebuyers [3]. - The measures promote urban renewal, including the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, and expand the "housing ticket" system for compensation and relocation [4]. Group 2: Education and Housing Demand - The policies support conditional districts to allow guardians of school-age children to purchase new residential properties, facilitating school enrollment based on purchase contracts [5]. - This approach aims to stimulate housing demand by simplifying the process of securing school placements for families [5]. Group 3: Market Regulation Adjustments - The measures include a phased cancellation of housing sales restrictions, allowing properties purchased before October 14, 2024, to be listed for sale after obtaining property certificates [7][8]. - This adjustment is expected to activate the secondary market and meet the demand for improved housing options [7]. Group 4: Housing Provident Fund Adjustments - The policies enhance housing provident fund loan support, linking loan amounts to deposit balances and reducing the down payment for second homes from 30% to 20% [9]. - Additionally, the measures lower the entry barriers for flexible employment individuals to participate in the provident fund system, facilitating easier access to loans [9].
鼓励直补购房首付,成都出台17条重磅楼市新政
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 06:08
Core Viewpoint - Chengdu has introduced 17 policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on improving supply quality, meeting diverse demands, revitalizing existing stock, and leveraging the role of housing provident funds [2][8]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The new measures encourage local districts to adopt direct subsidies for down payments, marking a significant innovation in financial support for homebuyers [3]. - The policies emphasize urban renewal, promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, and expanding the "housing voucher" system for compensation and relocation [4]. - Support policies related to education are introduced, allowing homebuyers to secure school enrollment for their children based on new housing contracts, thus stimulating housing demand [5]. Group 2: Market Adjustments - The measures include a phased cancellation of housing sales restrictions, allowing properties purchased before specific dates to be listed for sale, which is expected to activate the secondary market [6][7]. - Adjustments to housing provident fund policies include increasing loan support and lowering the down payment ratio for second homes, thereby reducing financial barriers for buyers [8].