固定资产投资结构优化升级
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中国2025年8月经济数据图景:8月生产改善,投资放缓
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August, industrial production improved with the national above - scale industrial added value growing 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month, and 6.2% year - on - year from January to August. The decline of PPI narrowed, and CPI decreased year - on - year but was flat month - on - month. Core CPI increased for four consecutive months. Domestic consumption is expected to continue to recover in Q3 [3]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.5%, and a month - on - month decline of 0.20% in August. The third - industry investment was dragged down by real estate, but the investment structure continued to optimize [4]. - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 323906 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, and 39668 billion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 3.4%. The consumer market is recovering, but the demand foundation needs to be consolidated. In the real estate market, both investment and sales were under pressure from January to August [5]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Uptick - In August, the national above - scale industrial added value grew 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month, and 6.2% year - on - year from January to August. The equipment and high - tech manufacturing industries outperformed the overall level. Some product outputs increased significantly. However, external uncertainties remain [11]. Inflation: Month - on - Month Recovery - In August 2025, the national PPI decreased 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The pressure on energy and raw material supply and demand eased marginally, some external - demand industries improved, and new - quality productivity industries and consumption - upgrade demand supported price increases. However, factors such as weak downstream demand and international input still restrict the full recovery of PPI, which is expected to continue a mild recovery [21]. - In August, CPI decreased 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month. Core CPI increased 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months. Food prices were the main drag, while non - food prices and service consumption showed positive trends. Domestic consumption is expected to continue to recover in Q3 [45]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to August 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.5%, and a month - on - month decline of 0.20% in August. The second - industry investment grew rapidly, while the third - industry investment was dragged down by real estate. Investment growth varied by region. Overall, the investment structure is optimizing, but the real estate market still drags down the overall investment [59]. Production: Continued Growth - From January to August 2025, the national above - scale industrial added value grew 6.2% year - on - year, with a 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month growth in August. The manufacturing industry maintained growth, and high - tech manufacturing outperformed. New kinetic energy products grew rapidly, and foreign trade also increased. However, the foundation for the continuous recovery of the industrial economy needs to be consolidated [63]. Consumption: Slowing Growth - From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 323906 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, and 39668 billion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 3.4%. The consumer market showed the characteristics of stable growth in commodity consumption and resilience in service consumption. Online consumption grew rapidly. Overall, the consumer market is recovering, but the demand foundation needs to be consolidated [74]. Real Estate: Both Investment and Demand Under Pressure - From January to August, national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decline of 12.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased, and sales were weak. The real estate market still faced downward pressure, but inventory reduction policies had some effects. The demand - side confidence needs to be restored [86]. Appendix - In August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Industrial production, services, market sales, fixed - asset investment, foreign trade, etc. all showed certain growth, and employment and prices were generally stable. However, there were still many external uncertainties, and the economy faced challenges [103].