市场消费平稳增长，部分品类需求旺盛。社会消费品零售总额实现316.0亿元，同比增长2.9%。限额以 上消费品零售额增长3.4%，特别是服装鞋帽纺织品类、饮料类、家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额实 现两位数较快增长，反映出消费市场的潜力和结构升级。 财税金融运行稳健，支撑保障有力。 一般公共预算收入48.8亿元，增长7.9%；国内税收收入38.1亿元， 增长3.4%。金融机构本外币存、贷款余额分别增长8.3%和6.1%，为经济发展提供了稳定的金融环境。 总体来看，2025年1-11月，惠东经济在复杂形势下保持了基本盘的稳定，积极因素不断累积。接下来， 惠东县将继续强化宏观政策调控，着力扩大有效需求，激发经营主体活力，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，确保高质量发展不断迈上新台阶。 采写/摄影 南都N视频记者 郭秋成 日前，惠东县人民政府网发布《2025年1-11月惠东经济运行简析》，该县扎实推进"百千万工程"，推动 宏观政策持续显效，全县经济保持稳中向好、承压前行的发展势头，高质量发展取得新进展，其中，规 上工业总产值增长14.8%。 分析认为，惠东县工业经济增长强劲，成为稳增长重要引擎。 2025年1- ...

1—11月，全国规上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元—— 工业企业利润延续增长态势 国家统计局12月27日发布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元。 国家统计局有关负责人表示，总体看，规模以上工业企业利润延续增长态势，工业新动能的支撑作用进 一步显现。 累计增速连续4个月保持增长 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁介绍，1—11月份，规模以上工业企业利润延续8月份以来的增长态 势，工业经济转型升级有序推进。 看利润增速，1—11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，自今年8月份以来累计增速连续4个月 保持增长。从三大门类看，1—11月份，制造业实现利润总额50317.9亿元，增长5.0%；电力、热力、燃 气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额8054.4亿元，增长8.4%；采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同比下降 27.2%，降幅较1—10月份收窄0.6个百分点。 装备制造业利润带动作用明显。1—11月份，规模以上装备制造业利润同比增长7.7%，拉动全部规模以 上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点，是对规模以上工业企业利润增长拉动作用最强的板块。从行业看， 装备制造业 ...

国家统计局12月27日发布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿 元。国家统计局有关负责人表示，总体看，规模以上工业企业利润延续增长态势，工业新动能的支撑作 用进一步显现。 累计增速连续4个月保持增长 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁介绍，1—11月份，规模以上工业企业利润延续8月份以来的增 长态势，工业经济转型升级有序推进。 看利润增速，1—11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，自今年8月份以来累计增速连续4 个月保持增长。从三大门类看，1—11月份，制造业实现利润总额50317.9亿元，增长5.0%；电力、热 力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额8054.4亿元，增长8.4%；采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同 比下降27.2%，降幅较1—10月份收窄0.6个百分点。 "从行业看，自今年以来，钢铁行业盈利状况改善明显，叠加低基数因素，行业利润同比大幅增 长；在市场需求增加、营收增长较快的带动下，有色行业利润保持两位数增长。"于卫宁说，1—11月 份，规模以上原材料制造业利润增长较快，同比增速达16.6%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.0 个百分点。 ...

从三大门类看，1-11月份，制造业利润增长5.0%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业利润增长8.4%； 采矿业利润下降27.2%，降幅较1-10月份收窄0.6个百分点。 11月当月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降13.1%。 国家统计局12月27日发布的数据显示，1-11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，自今年8月份 以来累计增速连续四个月保持增长。 其中，11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降13.1%，降幅比上月扩大7.6个百分点。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1-11月份，规模以上工业企业利润增速有所回落，但仍然延 续8月份以来的增长态势，以装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的新动能行业保持较快增长，工业经济 转型升级有序推进。 高技术制造业利润增速加快，1-11月份，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%，较1-10月份加快 2.0个百分点，增速高于全部规模以上工业平均水平9.9个百分点。 于卫宁分析，"人工智能+"行动深入实施带动相关设备制造行业利润向好，电子工业专用设备制造行业 利润同比增长57.4%；航空航天产业快速发展推动行业利润增长较快，航空、航天器及设备制造行业利 润同比增 ...

Core Insights - The internal control quality of listed companies in 2024 has improved compared to 2023, with internal environment remaining the weakest aspect that requires further enhancement [4][19] - Companies with financial shared centers, high digital transformation levels, and high-quality new productivity show better internal control levels, while those facing penalties, restatements, or receiving non-standard audit opinions exhibit lower internal control levels [20] Group 1: Overall Internal Control Status - The overall internal control level of listed companies has shown a steady increase from 52.47 in 2022 to 54.75 in 2024 [7] - The distribution of listed companies is concentrated in economically developed regions, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu having the highest number of listed companies [8] Group 2: Regional Analysis - Internal control index averages vary by region, with Yunnan (58.49), Beijing (56.25), and Hebei (56.60) showing higher scores, while Qinghai (50.42), Hainan (50.33), and Heilongjiang (51.64) are lower [8] - The internal control quality is more balanced in economically developed areas like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, indicating a mature governance structure [8] Group 3: Industry Analysis - The financial industry maintains a significantly higher internal control quality compared to other sectors, attributed to stringent government regulations [9] - Some service and public sectors have shown notable improvements in internal control levels from 2022 to 2024, while education, construction, and comprehensive industries remain at lower levels [9] Group 4: Financial Shared Services and Digital Transformation - Companies utilizing financial shared services have an internal control index average of 57.76, compared to 54.36 for non-financial shared companies, indicating a clear advantage [10] - Companies with high digital transformation levels have an internal control index average of 55.54, outperforming those with lower levels at 53.98, highlighting the positive impact of digital transformation on internal control quality [11] Group 5: ESG and New Productivity - Companies with high ESG levels have an internal control index that is 4.51 points higher than those with lower ESG levels, particularly in the internal environment dimension [13] - Companies with high new productivity levels demonstrate superior internal control quality across various dimensions compared to those with lower levels [14] Group 6: Penalties and Audit Opinions - Companies that have faced penalties have an internal control index average of 44.45, significantly lower than the 55.06 average of non-penalized companies, with the internal environment being the most affected area [15] - Companies receiving non-standard audit opinions have a notably lower internal control index, with a score of 34.76 in 2024, indicating serious deficiencies in internal control execution [18]

"总的看，1-11月，各项宏观政策持续显效，全区经济运行延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确 定因素仍然较多，推动经济运行持续向好仍需不懈努力。"内蒙古自治区发展和改革委员会相关负责人 说。 从工业生产看，今年内蒙古以技术创新打通产业链堵点，聚焦集中集聚集约发展目标，加快推进工业园 区高水平建设及重大项目落地投产，为工业经济高质量运行注入了强劲动能。今年1-11月，全区规模以 上工业增加值同比增长6.5%。其中，规模以上采矿业增加值同比增长4.5%，制造业增加值同比增长 8.8%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比增长7.8%，战略性新兴产业增加值同比增长 10.2%。 从投资看，内蒙古坚持用改革的办法破解难题，加快项目审批进度，并从转型升级传统产业、培育壮大 新兴产业两个方面拉动投资有效增长。 本报12月20日讯 （记者 杨威）记者从内蒙古自治区统计局获悉：今年1-11月，全区工农业生产和固定 资产投资稳中有增，市场消费增势良好，整体经济运行稳中有进。 从消费看，今年自治区坚持供需两端协同发力，想方设法提振消费，特别是紧紧抓住国家加力扩围实 施"两新"政策的机遇持续推动设备更新和消费品以旧换新，紧 ...

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production growth rate was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with a deeper decline compared to the previous period[11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3%, which is a decrease of approximately 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[11] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points in growth rate[18] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point[18] - Real estate development investment from January to November was 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9%, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5%, indicating that the decline in automobile consumption negatively impacted overall consumer performance[25] - The growth rate of retail sales in urban areas was 1.0%, while rural areas saw a growth of 2.8%[21] - Consumption of furniture, building materials, and jewelry saw significant declines, with automobile consumption experiencing a deepening drop[22] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain stable economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[28] - Policies will include increasing central budget investment and implementing measures to stabilize investment and consumption[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[29]

中央经济工作会议提出"实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动""围绕发展新质生产力，推动科技 创新和产业创新深度融合"。当前，中国产业发展现状如何？围绕中央经济工作会议部署，工业领域明 年将做好哪些工作？有关部门近期进行了回应。 装备制造业占比提升 国家统计局12月15日公布的数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%，高于 上年同期0.2个百分点，保持较好增长态势。 看单月数据，11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，增速和上月相比保持平稳。从环比来 看，规模以上工业增加值增长0.44%，比上月加快0.27个百分点。 看行业和产品，11月份，采矿业、制造业、电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比分别增长 6.3%、4.6%、4.3%；41个工业大类行业中30个行业增加值同比增长，增长面达73.2%；623种主要产品 中有49.8%的产品产量保持增长，和上月基本相当。 工业生产总体平稳的同时，装备制造业的发展成为一大亮点。根据国家统计局数据，11月份，规模 以上装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，累计增加值占全部规模以上工业比重达36.4%，较2024年全年提 高1.8个百分点，已连续33 ...

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Overview - In November 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.7% and rural areas by 0.4% [3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8% [3] - The average CPI from January to November remained flat compared to the previous year [3] Price Changes in November - Year-on-year, food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI [4] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 14.5%, impacting the CPI by about 0.31 percentage points [4] - Pork prices fell by 15.0%, leading to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.21 percentage points [4] Month-on-Month Price Changes - In November, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with urban areas also declining by 0.1% [3] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by 0.2% [3] - Among various categories, other goods and services prices rose by 14.2%, while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.3% [4][5] Industrial Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [7] - The mining sector saw a 6.3% increase, while manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply grew by 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively [7] - Among 41 major industries, 30 reported year-on-year growth in added value [7] Retail Sales Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, marking a 1.3% year-on-year increase [10] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5% [10] - Online retail sales from January to November amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.1% year-on-year increase [12] Fixed Asset Investment Trends - From January to November 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 444,035 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year [15] - The investment in the primary industry rose by 2.7%, while the secondary industry saw a 3.9% increase [15] - Infrastructure investment in the tertiary sector declined by 1.1% [15]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...