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中泰资管天团 | 胡达:固收“+”产品的视野可以更宽广
中泰证券资管· 2025-11-20 11:32
Core Insights - The current bond investment environment is characterized by complexity, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The inclusion of convertible bonds in investment portfolios can yield significant returns, while traditional long-duration asset strategies may underperform [1] - The performance of different fixed-income products has varied significantly this year, with convertible bond funds achieving close to 30% returns, contrasting with the underwhelming performance of long-term bond funds [1] - The implementation of asset management regulations and local government debt resolution processes will continue to profoundly impact the fixed-income industry, necessitating more refined investment strategies [4] Group 1: Investment Environment - The Wind convertible bond weighted index has seen a year-to-date increase of 16.83%, while the yield on 30-year government bonds has risen from 1.84% to 2.14%, leading to substantial capital losses for many investors [1] - In a low-interest-rate environment, overall yields for fixed-income products are expected to remain in the 2%-3% range, making it challenging to achieve significant excess returns while effectively managing product drawdowns [2] Group 2: Future Trends - The broadening of "fixed income +" products is seen as an inevitable trend in the fixed-income industry, with various strategies such as convertible bonds, equity ETFs, and commodity strategies still in the early stages of development [4] - Looking ahead to 2026, the likelihood of a significant shift in the low-interest-rate environment is low, and static coupon yields may decrease further as higher-yielding assets mature [5] - The potential for macroeconomic opportunities may focus on commodities, especially if policies aimed at reducing competition and expanding domestic demand are effectively implemented [5]