证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 红利价值筹码收集期——景顺长城中证国新 港股通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分析 MI&PPI 转正之时正是 EPS 回归之时，周期红利业绩有望迎来修复 我们预计 PPI 将于 26/1 回升至 0.1%。而随着 PPI 的转正，我们认为 EPS 修复 将成为牛市新驱动，上市公司的业绩有望在今明两年迎来持续回暖。过去一年 多的价格低位环境使得周期红利盈利能力持续承压、股价表现较弱，若参考 15- 16 年供给侧改革对于通胀水平拉动后市场风格的变化——16/8 后红利持续跑 赢创业板为代表的成长风格，16/9PPI 转正，16/11 市值风格转向大盘占优。若 PPI 有望在反内卷政策积极推动下在 26 年初回正，红利风格的相对收益有望 在周期红利的业绩复苏预期回升中修复。 上下半场切换期是长线资金收集红利价值难得的窗口期 过去一年，金融资产受益于货币政策的先行宽松，在股市层面呈现出小盘成长 风格的短期占优。但这一阶段恰好给红利价值提供了难得的筹码收集窗口，类 似于十年前孙正义与 GIC 的选择：孙正义和 GIC 在市场并不青睐英伟达和茅 台时认识到其充沛的自由现金流。一方面，红 ...

Group 1: Liquidity - Institutional funds waiting to enter the market amount to several trillion yuan, with a potential inflow of 1.64 to 5.75 trillion yuan based on equity position increases[2] - As of Q2 2025, the average equity position of various institutional funds is at a historical low of 8.7%[37] - The total balance of wealth management, trust, insurance, and asset management products exceeds 100 trillion yuan, indicating significant room for future market entry[37] Group 2: Policy - The People's Bank of China has not followed the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, maintaining the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.4% and the 1-year LPR at 3%[40] - The Q3 monetary policy meeting did not signal any new incremental policies, emphasizing continuity and stability instead[41] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is underway, with further fiscal policy measures still to be observed[56] Group 3: Fundamentals - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive by the end of Q1 or early Q2 2026, driven by capacity management measures[2] - Short-term economic pressures remain, but corporate expectations have begun to stabilize, particularly in industries affected by the "anti-involution" policy[71] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address overcapacity and improve corporate expectations, with specific measures being implemented across key industries[72]

Group 1: PPI Historical Cycles - Since 2000, China has experienced four PPI turning points, occurring in November 2002, December 2009, September 2016, and January 2021[5] - The first cycle (2001-2002) was driven by China's WTO accession, which expanded market access and boosted exports, leading to PPI recovery[5] - The second cycle (2008-2009) was fueled by the "Four Trillion" investment plan, which countered external demand pressures and stimulated domestic demand, resulting in a PPI rebound[6] - The third cycle (2012-2016) was characterized by supply-side structural reforms that effectively cleared excess capacity, restoring supply-demand balance and pushing PPI upward[7] - The fourth cycle (2019-2021) saw global liquidity easing and rising commodity prices, which again drove PPI into positive territory, reaching a peak of 13.5%[9] Group 2: Current PPI Trends and Policies - Currently, PPI is in a critical phase of bottoming out, having been in negative territory for 35 consecutive months since October 2022[15] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to address excess capacity and may serve as a crucial lever for PPI recovery[15] - Effective demand-side policies are still under observation, and their implementation could accelerate the pace of PPI returning to positive territory[11] - Historical data indicates that monetary policy easing (rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions) has been a common feature accompanying PPI recovery cycles, but alone is insufficient to drive PPI positive[12] - Risks include slow consumer confidence recovery and potential delays in policy implementation, which could hinder PPI improvement[23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conditions required for the Producer Price Index (PPI) to turn positive, emphasizing the need for significant increases in commodity prices, particularly in the context of current economic conditions and historical precedents [3][4][9]. Summary by Sections Commodity Price Trends - Since July, major commodities have experienced a slight decline after a peak, with coal and black metals rising by 13.8% and 3.9% respectively by mid-August [3]. - The PPI is expected to show a year-on-year increase in August due to a low base last year, but it remains in negative territory for 34 consecutive months [3]. PPI Composition and Impact - The PPI consists of various components, with black metals, non-ferrous metals, crude oil, coal, and other goods contributing 13.6%, 7.3%, 16.7%, 9.3%, and 53.2% respectively [5]. - In the first seven months of 2025, crude oil, black metals, coal, and other goods negatively impacted the PPI by 1, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points, while non-ferrous metals contributed positively by 0.4 percentage points [5]. Price Requirements for PPI to Turn Positive - For the PPI to turn positive by the end of the year, the average month-on-month PPI from August to December needs to reach 0.43%, which is similar to levels seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [8]. - Corresponding to this, prices for rebar, non-caking coal, copper, and crude oil need to increase by 11% from July levels, reaching 3580 CNY, 940 CNY, 88000 CNY, and 79 USD respectively [8]. - If crude oil and copper prices remain stable, rebar and non-caking coal prices would need to rise by approximately 20% from July averages to achieve a positive PPI [8]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical examples show that significant price increases in commodities often require external factors, such as the 198% rise in non-caking coal prices in 2021 due to energy-saving measures [9]. - A more realistic scenario for PPI turning positive may occur in Q2 of next year, where a 4% increase in prices from July levels would suffice [9]. - However, after Q2 of next year, the low base effect will diminish, necessitating further conditions for PPI positivity, especially if crude oil prices continue to decline [9][11]. Demand Considerations - The analysis assumes that upstream price increases can be effectively transmitted to downstream sectors, which is contingent on sufficient demand [10]. - Weak demand, particularly in the real estate sector, has historically hindered price transmission, preventing the PPI from turning positive despite rising upstream prices [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - If PPI is to turn positive by the end of this year, the average monthly PPI MoM from August to December needs to reach 0.43%, similar to the average during the 2016 supply - side reform. Commodity prices need to rise significantly, with rebar, anthracite, copper, and crude oil prices needing to increase by 11% from July levels [2][8]. - Given that crude oil and copper are globally - priced commodities and crude oil prices have been weakening, domestic - priced commodities like rebar and coal need to rise more for PPI to turn positive by the end of the year. For example, if oil and copper prices remain flat, rebar and anthracite need to rise about 20% from July averages [8]. - A more realistic scenario is for PPI to approach positive growth in Q2 next year. With a low - base effect, rebar, anthracite, copper, and crude oil prices only need to rise about 4% from July this year to drive PPI to turn positive [9]. - PPI turning positive depends on demand. Weak demand can block price transmission, requiring larger price increases in upstream commodities for PPI to turn positive [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Current Commodity Price Situation - Since July, commodities first rose and then slightly declined. As of mid - August, coal and ferrous metals rose 13.8% and 3.9% MoM respectively compared to mid - July, leading the increase among major commodities [4]. - Due to a low base last year, the PPI YoY in August is expected to rebound but will still remain in negative territory for the 34th consecutive month [4]. PPI Composition and Impact Factors - In the PPI composition, the weights of ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, coal, and other commodities are 13.6%, 7.3%, 16.7%, 9.3%, and 53.2% respectively. From January to July 2025, crude oil, ferrous metals, coal, and other commodities dragged down PPI by 1, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points respectively, while non - ferrous metals boosted PPI by 0.4 percentage points [4]. Representative Commodities for PPI - The spot prices of rebar, anthracite, copper, and Brent crude oil are selected as representative commodities for ferrous, coal, non - ferrous, and crude oil PPI, with correlation coefficients of 81%, 93%, 75%, and 96% respectively [5]. Historical Examples of Commodity Price Increases - In 2021, "sports - style" energy conservation and emission reduction drove coal prices up. In October 2021, anthracite prices rose 198% compared to April, driving the PPI YoY of the coal mining and washing industry from 13% to 103.7% in October [8]. - From 2016 - 2017, the supply - side reform drove up ferrous metal prices. At the end of 2016, rebar and wire rod prices rose 82% and 91% compared to the end of 2015, driving the PPI YoY of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry up by 35% at the end of 2016 [9]. Commodity Price Requirements for PPI to Turn Positive | Time | Rebar | Anthracite | Copper | Crude Oil | Average Commodity Price Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July Average | 3213 yuan/ton | 844 yuan/ton | 78644 yuan/ton | 71 dollars/ton | - | | Q4 2025 | 3580 yuan/ton | 940 yuan/ton | 87609 yuan/ton | 79 dollars/ton | 11% | | Q1 2026 | 3519 yuan/ton | 924 yuan/ton | 86115 yuan/ton | 78 dollars/ton | 10% | | Q2 2026 | 3342 yuan/ton | 877 yuan/ton | 81789 yuan/ton | 74 dollars/ton | 4% | [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the petrochemical sector, particularly focusing on private large-scale refining companies [3][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a transformative period in refining, suggesting a focus on private large-scale refining companies due to structural adjustments in the industry [15]. - The "anti-involution" trend is seen as a potential turning point for the chemical industry, with expectations of improved profitability and competitive dynamics in the coming quarters [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of PPI turning positive, which could lead to increased market allocation towards cyclical midstream sectors, benefiting the chemical industry [17]. Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry comprises 493 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 51,121.17 billion and a circulating market value of 45,298.84 billion [3]. - The industry index for the chemical sector is reported at 71.55, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.06% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 22.79% [14]. - The report notes that the current operating rate in the chemical industry is around 66.53%, indicating a stable production environment [14]. Price Trends - Key price movements include an 8.0% increase in lithium carbonate and a 7.7% increase in acrylic short fibers, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [6][15]. - The report indicates that the export prices for diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate have risen significantly, with year-to-date increases of 24.4% and 18.1%, respectively [18]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for upward movement, including leading chemical firms like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as companies benefiting from export quotas [17][18]. - Specific companies to watch include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Yihua Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing structural changes in the industry [15][18].

Investment Strategy - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is at 71.97, down 1.21% week-on-week and down 23.14% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market environment [11] - The industry price percentile is at 17.96% over the past 10 years, down 0.43%, while the industry spread percentile is at 0.00%, down 1.14% [11] - The industry inventory percentile is at 81.38% over the past 5 years, down 1.09%, and the industry operating rate is at 66.57%, up 0.40% [11] - Notable price increases this week include: polyester POY cash flow (+98.0%), polyester FDY cash flow (+30.7%), and acrylic acid butyl ester spread (+26.3%) [11] - Significant price decreases include: maleic anhydride spread (-388.7%), acrylonitrile spread (-41.4%), and acrylic acid spread (-27.9%) [11] Chemical Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate market average price is 78,000 CNY/ton, up 9.6% week-on-week, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand [4] - The 3-cyanopyridine market average price is 32,000 CNY/ton, up 8.5% week-on-week, with tight supply and strong demand from downstream industries [4] - The acrylic short fiber market average price is 14,700 CNY/ton, up 7.7% week-on-week, with stable operating rates and demand primarily driven by long-term contracts [4] Market Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be a turning point for the chemical industry, with recent government meetings emphasizing this goal [12] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a high operating rate, with core products generally above 65%, indicating a healthier supply-demand balance compared to other sectors [12] - The fixed asset investment in the chemical industry turned negative in May 2025, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-valuation chemical leaders such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, which are positioned for upward potential [13] - Consider companies benefiting from export quotas with expected Q3 performance improvements, such as Hubei Yihua and Xingfa Group [13] - Monitor industries experiencing price increases, such as organic silicon and glyphosate, with companies like Xingfa Group and Xin'an Chemical [13] - Pay attention to sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as long filaments and spandex, with companies like Tongkun Co. and Huafeng Chemical [13] Phosphate Fertilizer Market - Phosphate fertilizer export prices have been rising due to strong overseas agricultural demand, with diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate FOB prices at 768.0 and 581.0 USD/ton, respectively [14] - The price increases represent year-to-date changes of +24.4% and +18.1%, with significant domestic and international price differentials indicating substantial export profits [14] - Companies such as Yuntianhua and Hubei Yihua are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17% to 3615 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.62% to below 2400 points [1] - Total trading volume reached 1.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3500 stocks declining [1] ETF Performance - Cyclical stocks surged in the afternoon, with the chemical sector performing actively; the Huaxia Petrochemical ETF rose by 2.07% [1] - Other chemical ETFs, including E Fund Chemical Industry ETF and Guotai Chemical Leader ETF, also saw gains exceeding 1% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the petrochemical ETFs include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [1] Chemical Industry Insights - Huachuang Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may mark the beginning of a reversal in the chemical sector, with recent changes indicating a shift in supply-side dynamics [2] - The current operating rate in the chemical industry is relatively high, with core products operating above 65%, which is better than the oversupply situation in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The cumulative fixed asset investment in the chemical industry turned negative in May 2025, indicating a potential exit from the bottom or that it is imminent [2] PPI and Market Sentiment - The expectation of PPI turning positive is significant for the chemical sector, as it may lead to increased allocation towards cyclical midstream segments, which are currently underrepresented [3] - Improved confidence in the real economy could shift inventory management to a more proactive stance, positively impacting chemical pricing [3] - Key investment targets include low-valuation leading chemical companies, phosphate chemicals benefiting from export quotas, and industries like organic silicon and glyphosate that are currently experiencing price increases [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the chemical industry, particularly the rise of the China Securities Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) and its constituent stocks [1][2] - The largest chemical ETF (159870) has seen a significant increase of 1.61%, with a latest price of 0.63 yuan and a net subscription of 300 million shares, bringing its total scale to over 3 billion yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index account for 43.37% of the index, with major players including Wanhu Chemical (600309) and Yanhai Co. (000792) [2] Group 2 - The chemical industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," with expectations of demand becoming a core variable as the 14th Five-Year Plan is formulated and policies are introduced [2] - The industry is anticipated to see a fundamental turning point in 2-3 quarters, with the potential for early confirmation of stock price turning points due to anti-involution [2] - The intervention through fiscal measures is expected to promote PPI recovery and restart the inventory cycle, indicating a positive outlook for the chemical sector [2]