Report Core View - Bullish factors include the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 21.22 billion yuan, resulting in a marginal easing of liquidity. Also, Treasury bond futures closed slightly stable, heating up at the end of the session with a slight decline in yields [2] - Bearish factors are that both China's CPI and PPI rose in December, increasing inflation pressure, and the decreased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising global trade uncertainties have led to increased uncertainty in foreign capital inflows [2] - The trading advisory view suggests paying attention to the short - term decline of the basis and closely monitoring the price support from the central bank's liquidity operations [2] Data Presented in the Report (Sources from Wind) 1. Treasury Bond Yield - The report shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 [3] 2. Treasury Bond Term Spread - It presents the trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond spreads from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 [4] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Open Interest - The open interest trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015 - 12 to 2025 - 12 are shown [6] 3.2 Trading Volume - The trading volume trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 are presented [7] 3.3 Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis trends of current - quarter contracts for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown in different time periods [8][9][12] 3.4 Inter - Delivery Spread (Current - Quarter - Next - Quarter) - The inter - delivery spread trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are presented [16][17] 3.5 Inter - Variety Spread - The trends of the TS * 4 - T and T * 3 - TL inter - variety spreads from different time periods are shown [18][19]

Report Summary Core View - There are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. Positive factors include a loose capital market despite the contraction of the manufacturing PMI, and rumors of "dual cuts" in the political situation boosting sentiment, leading to a decline in yields and an overall rise in futures. Negative factors are that the central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected, causing yields to rise and futures to fall, as well as banks selling bonds to realize profits and bond funds facing redemption pressure, resulting in consecutive increases in yields and falling futures. The trading advice is to pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying intensity and short - term liquidity and keep positions flexible [2] Specific Data and Indicators Yield and Interest Rate - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented, along with data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day terms and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] Term Spread - Data on treasury bond term spreads (7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y) from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] Futures Position and Trading Volume - Data on the positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from different time periods are shown [7][8] Basis and Spread - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented, as well as the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures. Additionally, data on cross - variety spreads (TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL) are provided [9][10][14][16][18][19][20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market, with bank - to - bank funds in a loose environment supporting the bond market, and the 10 - year main contract rising 0.12% weekly, showing stable market sentiment and attracting buyers. However, there are also negative factors such as better - than - expected import and export data (4.8% export growth) and high risk preference. It is recommended to closely monitor the capital situation and economic fundamentals and maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Data Bond Market Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Bank - to - bank funds in a loose environment support the bond market, and the 10 - year main contract rising 0.12% weekly attracts buyers [3] - Negative factors: Import and export data are better than expected (4.8% export growth), which may push up interest rate expectations, and high risk preference increases the pressure of capital diversion [3] Yield and Interest Rate - The report presents the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08, as well as the trends of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [4] Term Spread - It shows the trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [4] Futures Position and Trading Volume - The trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures positions from 2015/12 to 2023/12 and trading volumes from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [8][9] Basis and Spread - The report shows the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures basis for the current quarter, as well as the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures spreads between the current and next quarters from 2024/04 to 2025/08 (for 30 - year from 2023/06 to 2025/06) [10][17][20] - It also presents the trends of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 (for T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06) [21][22]