Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the long term, a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the foundation for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium - to - long term is relatively solid [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the weak side" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated on the weak side. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net liquidity injection, with a net injection of 80.18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase and MLF operations. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yield remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for Treasury bond yields is small. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the medium - to - long - term upward foundation of Treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is oscillatory in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday. The short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, and in the short - term, Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. The central bank's net liquidity injection in the open - market operation eased the liquidity shortage, and the upward momentum of the 2 - year Treasury bond yield was insufficient. There are still problems of insufficient domestic effective demand and external disturbances, so a loose monetary environment is needed to support economic demand in the second half of the year [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. Currently, the trend of Treasury bond futures is not strong, and the upward and downward momentum is limited. Since April, as the Treasury bond yield to maturity has rebounded, the implied interest rate cut expectation relative to the policy rate is now close to zero. This is mainly because external risk factors have entered a suspension period, reducing the demand for safe - havens, and the effectiveness of internal policies requires more macro - economic indicators for verification. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. However, due to the anchoring effect of the policy rate, the upward momentum of market interest rates is also insufficient. In the second quarter, government bond issuance has accelerated to hedge against external disturbances and support economic demand. Especially since May, the supply of 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds has significantly increased, which may put some pressure on the price of 30 - year Treasury bond futures in the short term. Overall, in the short term, the upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On May 22, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method. The operating rate was 1.4%, unchanged from before [3].