机构认为，当前10年国债接近1.9%，30年到达2.335%，超长国债和地方债已经具备配置价值，如果10年国债突破1.9%，建议可以关注超长端配置价值和长 端短期反弹价值，可以结合权益和商品行情来把握入场节奏。另外，3-5年二永的持有价值依然较高，后续市场平稳后，预计证金-国债利差也还是会压缩。 截至2026年1月7日 15:00，国开债券ETF(159651)上涨0.02%，最新价报106.78元。 流动性方面，国开债券ETF盘中换手18.9%，成交1.30亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至1月7日，国开债券ETF近1年日均成交2.84亿元。 资金流入方面，国开债券ETF最新资金净流出2498.73万元。拉长时间看，近8个交易日内，合计"吸金"1.57亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 回撤方面，截至2026年1月7日，国开债券ETF今年以来最大回撤0.04%，相对基准回撤0.00%。 费率方面，国开债券ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中最低。 跟踪精度方面，截至2026年1月7日，国开债券ETF近2月跟踪误差为0.009%，在可比基金中跟踪精度最高。 国开债券ETF紧密跟踪中债 ...

Core Insights - The value of 30-year government bonds is becoming more apparent as they approach the after-tax adjusted mortgage rates, but the current risks indicate that ultra-long bonds should not be viewed merely as a duration strategy tool [1] - The 10-year government bonds are seen as a stabilizing force in the bond market during this adjustment phase, highlighting their robust characteristics [1] - The economic "K" structure is expected to persist in the short term, creating a favorable environment for the bond market, although pessimistic sentiments have not fully dissipated [1] Performance Summary - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the exchange [1] - Since its inception, the 10-year government bond ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with historical performance remaining stable [1] - As of the end of Q2, the one-year return rate is 5.88%, the three-year return rate is 16.13%, the five-year return rate is 22.41%, and the cumulative return rate since inception is 36.68% [1] - The ETF has maintained positive returns for each of the seven complete natural years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool that can navigate through market cycles [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the demand for government bonds is increasing due to risk aversion and policy uncertainties, leading to significant net inflows into government bond ETFs [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds will be subject to value-added tax, which may impact investor sentiment [1] - The central bank plans to cancel the freeze on pledged bonds in repurchase agreements to enhance market liquidity, indicating a long-term optimization of monetary policy operations [1] Group 2 - Huabao Securities noted that the pressure on the bond market is easing, and a turning point is emerging, with a marginal softening in the "anti-involution" policy statements [1] - Recent deep corrections in commodity futures, such as coking coal and polysilicon, have alleviated panic in the bond market, increasing the willingness of investors to enter the market [1] - Despite an increase in government bond supply, the central bank is maintaining liquidity through reverse repos, clearly indicating a policy stance to prevent liquidity tightening from negatively impacting the bond market [1] Group 3 - The government bond ETF (511010) tracks the 5-year government bond index (000140), which reflects the overall price trends of government bonds with an approximate remaining maturity of 5 years [1] - The index consists of mid-term government bonds with high credit ratings and good liquidity, aiming to measure market interest rate changes and the performance of mid-term fixed-income products [1] - The index does not involve specific industry or style allocations, emphasizing the high credit rating and relatively stable investment return characteristics of government bond assets [1]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a slight decline in early trading on July 30, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) down by 0.15% and the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) down by 0.20% [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 309 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, while yields on major government bonds increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.745% [1] - The recent adjustment in insurance industry guaranteed rates, with traditional life insurance rates lowered from 2.5% to 2.0%, is expected to enhance the allocation value of the 30-year government bond yield [2] Group 2 - The launch of a new round of policy rate adjustments in the insurance sector is anticipated to create a stable buffer for bond market allocation funds, driven by increased bank interest margin pressure and lower insurance guaranteed rates [2] - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, which allows investors to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations and manage portfolio duration effectively [2]