Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that investors with idle funds and a willingness to accept some volatility should consider purchasing the National Development Bank Bond ETF (国开债券ETF) or corporate bond ETFs before the holiday, as it may provide better returns compared to other short-term cash management options [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to buy the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) as it offers better returns than reverse repos, especially since buying on February 13 allows them to enjoy 8 days of interest during the holiday [1] - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has lower holding fees (20 basis points) compared to the average 40 basis points for money market ETFs, making it a more cost-effective option for investors looking to buy before the holiday [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of February 12, 2026, the National Development Bank Bond ETF has increased by 0.01%, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.19% [2] - The ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, with an increase of 20.67 million yuan over the past week [3] - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year is 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.03% [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has a trading volume of 1.67 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past year is 274 million yuan [2] Group 4: Fee Structure - The management fee for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.009% over the past three months, closely following the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment strategies for low to medium-risk clients with idle funds during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, recommending the use of government bond reverse repos and bond ETFs as viable options for generating returns during this period [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - On February 12, clients with idle funds are advised to engage in a government bond reverse repo (131810) and purchase the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) to benefit from dual returns during the holiday [1]. - The strategy involves executing a reverse repo on February 12, which matures on February 13, allowing clients to earn interest during the holiday while also investing in the bond ETF [1][3]. - On February 13, clients are encouraged to directly purchase the National Development Bank Bond ETF, which offers potentially higher returns compared to reverse repos, as it allows for the collection of interest over the holiday period [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) has a low management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it more cost-effective compared to money market ETFs [6]. - The ETF has shown significant growth, with a recent increase in scale of 70.7 million yuan over the past three months and a net inflow of 642,400 yuan recently [6]. - As of February 11, 2026, the ETF's price was 107.06 yuan, with a 1.17% increase over the past year, indicating a stable performance [4][5]. Group 3: Market Activity - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has an active trading environment, with a turnover rate of 20.82% and a transaction volume of 117 million yuan, reflecting strong market interest [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past year has been 27.6 million yuan, showcasing consistent liquidity in the market [5].

Group 1 - The overall risk in the cross-year bond market is controllable, with a short-term warm sentiment expected to continue. The focus is on the yield curve flattening or becoming concave, particularly the 10-2 year spread narrowing and the 30-10 spread maintaining around 40 basis points [1] - Recent changes in the bond market include an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for long-term bonds, a notable technical improvement, and a stable decline in funding rates, although future space for decline is limited [1] - The 10-year government bonds and policy financial bonds present a high cost-performance ratio, as their rebound has not fully absorbed the benefits of monetary easing, indicating clear potential for recovery [1] Group 2 - For medium and short-term bonds, the benefits of monetary easing have been fully realized, leading to limited downward space and insufficient odds for further declines. The long-term bonds are viewed with a neutral to optimistic stance, with moderate speculation on new bonds [2] - The 30-year government bonds are expected to mainly follow the recovery of 10-year bonds, with compression space in spreads but expected to remain above 40 basis points. Older 30-year bonds face liquidity issues and the challenge of "buying new and selling old" [2] - As of February 9, 2026, the National Development Bank bond ETF has seen a 0.01% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a current price of 107.05 yuan and a one-year cumulative increase of 1.11% [2] Group 3 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has experienced a significant growth of 45.973 million yuan over the past three months [3] - The maximum drawdown for the National Development Bank bond ETF this year is 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02%, and a recovery period of 5 days [3] Group 4 - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - As of February 9, 2026, the tracking error for the National Development Bank bond ETF over the past three months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [5]

截至2月6日，国开债券ETF近1年净值上涨1.09%。从收益能力看，截至2026年2月6日，国开债券ETF自 成立以来，最长连涨月数为15个月，最长连涨涨幅为3.90%，涨跌月数比为35/5，年盈利百分比为 100.00%，月盈利概率为88.83%，历史持有3年盈利概率为100.00%。 【机构债券策略分析】 1.补涨行情幅度有多大？从30-10Y利差来看，目前活跃券利差大致在42-43BP左右，考虑利差上行逻辑 （供给担忧和名义增速回升）并未证伪，因此预计利差在40BP以下的下行难度会增加，在10年国债利 率维持1.8%左右波动的情况下，预计30年利率可能下行到2.2%左右，但因为30年老券和50年国债利率 更高，它们的下行空间会更大。 从10年国开-国债利差来看，目前活跃券利差在16BP左右，考虑国债空间较小后，投资者最终会将目光 投向有资本利得预期的证金债，预计两者利差会向10BP左右压缩。如果市场后续对于国开债的需求增 加，10年国开利率可能向1.9%靠拢。 2.10年国债还有下行空间吗？从近期10年国债运行来看，1.8%附近的突破阻力较强，需要较强的利多刺 激才能有效下行至1.8%以下，从可能性来看 ...

Group 1 - The central bank increased its bond purchases, buying 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, which is 50 billion yuan more than the previous month, indicating potential for further increases in the future [1] - The market is closely watching the central bank's bond purchase scale, the timing of policy interest rate cuts, and when institutional stock market expectations may decline [1] - The central bank conducted a 3-month reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan, with attention on whether the marginal bidding rate will drop to 1.40% [1] Group 2 - In the secondary market for ultra-long-term bonds, insurance funds purchased 10.8 billion yuan, while funds bought 1.2 billion yuan, indicating a lack of strong demand for ultra-long bonds from trading desks [2] - The National Development Bank bond ETF (159651.SZ) saw a daily increase of 0.05% following the central bank's bond purchase, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.16% [2] - The trading volume of the National Development Bank bond ETF was 1.55 billion yuan, with an active market turnover rate of 28.27% [3] Group 3 - The National Development Bank bond ETF experienced a significant growth of 42.51 million yuan over the past three months [4] - The maximum drawdown for the National Development Bank bond ETF this year was 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [4] - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 4 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has a tracking error of 0.009% over the past three months, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the National Development Bond ETF (159651.SZ), which experienced a slight decline of 0.01% on February 2, 2026, while attracting significant net inflows from major investors [1] - Over the past two days, the fund has seen a total net inflow of 212 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 1.0976 million units, with a total transaction value of 117 million yuan, and the net inflow accounted for 21.82% of the total transaction value on that day [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the long-term bonds are experiencing a rebound driven by allocation strategies, with significant net buying from various institutions [1] - Since the beginning of January, the trading data shows that insurance funds have increased their allocation to long-term bonds significantly, benefiting from a notable decline in liability costs [1] - The market anticipates that the yield on 10Y government bonds will drop below 1.8% in the coming month, with potential for 30Y bonds to fall below 2.2% [2] Group 2 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has seen a 1.10% increase over the past year, ranking it in the top half of comparable funds [2] - The ETF's trading volume has been robust, with an average daily turnover of 281 million yuan over the past year [3] - The ETF has experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 47 million yuan in the past month [3] Group 3 - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes bonds with a maturity of up to 3 years [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that interest rates are expected to remain stable without expectations of rate cuts, leading to a volatile bond market, while opportunities in interest rate bonds with compressed spreads can be explored [1] - The current floating rate bonds are considered expensive, but the 2-3 year floating rate policy bank bonds may present value based on the logic of the compression of the national development bank and treasury bond spreads [1] - In the context of national bond futures, short-term hedging strategies are recommended if there are concerns about rising interest rates, although continuous hedging is not advised due to low value [1] Group 2 - As of January 27, 2026, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) has increased by 0.01%, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a latest price of 106.94 yuan and a cumulative increase of 1.08% over the past year [1] - The trading volume of the National Development Bank Bond ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 59.1% and a transaction value of 331 million yuan, while the average daily transaction over the past year was 28.2 million yuan [1] - Over the past three months, the National Development Bank Bond ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 53.38 million yuan [2] Group 3 - The management fee for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3] - As of January 27, 2026, the tracking error of the National Development Bank Bond ETF over the past three months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [4]

Group 1 - The analysis of major bond pricing indicates that short-term interest rates have limited downward space for certificates of deposit, while short-term government bonds are expected to remain stable [1] - For medium to long-term bonds, the 10-year government bond has no short-term downward space, and there is limited room for yield compression between ultra-long government bonds and 10-year government bonds [1] - The recommendation for bond portfolios is to focus on slightly lower duration strategies, particularly 3-year government bonds, which offer both offensive potential and strong defensive value [1] Group 2 - The National Development Bank bond ETF (159651) saw a slight increase of 0.01% as of January 23, 2026, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.23% [1] - The trading volume of the National Development Bank bond ETF was 55.19 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 9.48% on January 23, 2026 [2] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3] Group 3 - The tracking error of the National Development Bank bond ETF over the past three months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [4] - The ETF's scale increased by 67.77 million yuan over the past month, indicating significant growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns regarding liquidity are expected to diminish as the central bank continues its reverse repurchase operations, with slight value remaining in medium and long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, 2026, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) has increased by 0.01%, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 106.85 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the National Development Bank Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.09% [1] - The ETF's trading volume showed an active market with a turnover rate of 15.17% and a transaction value of 95.96 million yuan on January 14, 2026 [1] - The average daily trading volume of the ETF over the past year is 283 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Returns - The latest net outflow for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 6.197 million yuan, with a total inflow of 129 million yuan over the last 21 trading days [1] - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year, as of January 14, 2026, is 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.01% [1] - The recovery days after the drawdown are recorded at 5 days [1] Group 3: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [1] - As of January 14, 2026, the tracking error for the ETF over the past three months is 0.008% [2] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to 3 years [2]