Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that future price trends may diverge from market expectations, with the CPI for 2026 likely remaining in positive territory due to tailwind factors, but without exceeding expectations [1] - The tailwind factors contributing positively include the strong performance of gold in the second half of 2025 and the inclusion of goods at original prices in the CPI after national subsidies, leading to an inflated CPI [1] - Current consumer sentiment is mixed, making it difficult to conclude a rebound in domestic demand, which may further support the bond market throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the exchange, maintaining a constant duration [1] - Historical performance shows that since its inception, the Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 0.4%, a three-year return of 14.23%, a five-year return of 23.19%, and a cumulative return of 36.31% since inception as of the end of 2025 [1] - Notably, the Ten-Year Treasury ETF has maintained positive returns every year since its establishment, spanning eight complete calendar years from 2018 to 2025, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1]

值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018年～2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收 益，有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源：基金定期报告、Wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国 债ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年～2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 债市有望震荡偏强，资金抢筹债市，资金面看，十年国债ETF（511260）近5日净流入超4.6亿元。 金融街证券指出，近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) rising by 0.87% over the past 20 days, driven by unexpected bank deposits and allocation strength [1] Group 1: Short-term Factors - The recent surge in bank deposits and allocation strength are identified as the main short-term factors contributing to the bond market's recovery [1] - The interbank funding environment has improved, as evidenced by the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rate breaking through 1.6%, indicating sustained easing in the interbank funding situation [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, it is suggested to consider a long position in government bond ETFs (511010) and the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1] - The report indicates that the medium-term outlook for long-term bond interest rates is limited, favoring a strategic allocation approach over a trading mindset [3] - Mid-duration products, such as government bond ETFs (511010) and the 10-year government bond ETF (511260), are expected to be more favored in the current market environment [3] Group 3: Policy Insights - The central bank's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the importance of monetary-fiscal coordination, supporting government bond issuance through ample liquidity [3] - The report highlights the need for stronger policy synergy and transmission efficiency, with a focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships and regulating unreasonable low-interest behaviors [3]

值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018～2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收 益，有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源：基金定期报告、Wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国 债ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年～2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 降息预期催化，债市或将震荡偏强，资金抢筹债市，资金面看，十年国债ETF（511260）近5日净流入 超2.4亿元。 金融 ...

十年期国债存交易机会，2月10日，十年国债ETF（511260）微幅上涨，近5日净流入超1亿元。 华宝证券指出，从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份利率容易在春节前 后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一的例外是2022年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但 这一年的特殊性在于央行在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。 风险提示：数据来源：基金定期报告、Wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国 债ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年～2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律 ...

每日经济新闻 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018~2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、Wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年~2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 股市震荡，关注债市配置机遇，2月6日，十年国债ETF（511260）上涨0.07%。 相关机构表示，从消息角度，银行存款留 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents several ETF strategy indices constructed by Huabao Research and tracks their performance and positions on a weekly basis, aiming to help investors convert quantitative models or subjective views into practical investment strategies [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week. The Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index had the highest weekly excess return of 2.56%, while the Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index had the lowest weekly excess return of -2.76% [12] 3.1.1 Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. It outputs weekly signals to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines positions accordingly to obtain excess returns [13] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 29.34%, the excess return in the past month was 5.89%, and the excess return in the past week was - 1.86%. The index's positions include 50% in the CSI 500ETF and 50% in the CSI 1000ETF [13][17] 3.1.2 Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposure to 9 major Barra factors to achieve market - outperforming returns. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [17] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 20.15%, the excess return in the past month was - 2.11%, and the excess return in the past week was - 2.76%. The index's positions are mainly in several science - innovation and growth - style ETFs [17] 3.1.3 Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - to - long - term fundamentals, tracking of short - term market trends, and analysis of the behavior of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns [20] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 51.39%, the excess return in the past month was 6.51%, and the excess return in the past week was 2.56%. The index's positions are mainly in commodity - related and financial - related ETFs [20][25] 3.1.4 Huabao Research Quantitative Balance ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It adopts a multi - factor system, including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical analysis, and investor behavior factors, to construct a quantitative timing system for trend analysis of the equity market. It also builds a prediction model for market large - and small - cap styles to adjust the equity market position distribution and obtain excess returns through comprehensive timing and rotation [24] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was - 10.24%, the excess return in the past month was 0.48%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.36%. The index's positions include bonds and equity - based ETFs [24][27] 3.1.5 Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses strategies such as market sentiment analysis, tracking of major industry events, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical analysis to track and dig out hot - spot index target products in a timely manner, constructing an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot spots and providing short - term market trend references for investors [27] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return in the past month was 6.21%, and the excess return in the past week was 3.21%. The index's positions are mainly in commodity, Hong - Kong - stock, and short - term financing ETFs [27][30] 3.1.6 Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio to improve long - term returns and drawdown control [30] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return in the past month was 0.40%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.14%. The index's positions are mainly in bond - related ETFs [30][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing appeal of the bond market as a safe haven amid market corrections, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) rising by 0.05% on January 30 [1] - Traditional economic conditions are expected to further support the bond market this year, as the profitability of long-term bonds has significantly decreased, leading to substantial outflows from trading positions [1] - The current monetary policy stance is relatively neutral, with a strong guidance towards maintaining a reasonable range for the bond market, suggesting that value-oriented investment strategies may be more favorable than short-term trading [1] Group 2 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the exchange, maintaining a constant duration [1] - Historical performance indicates that since its inception, the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 4.17%, a three-year return of 14.04%, a five-year return of 23.39%, and a cumulative return of 35.77% since inception [1] - Notably, the ten-year government bond ETF has maintained positive annual returns for seven complete calendar years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool that can withstand market cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The medium to long-term outlook remains a narrow fluctuation due to the K-shaped economic differentiation, with traditional economic downturns potentially supporting the bond market [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The K-shaped differentiation makes it difficult to assess the macroeconomic state as "good" or "bad" [1] - Traditional economic downturns may further support the bond market, as the long bond's profitability has significantly declined, leading to substantial outflows from trading positions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy stance is relatively neutral, with a strong guidance to maintain a reasonable range for the bond market [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In a fluctuating bond market, a focus on stable investment options may offer better value than short-term trading strategies [1] - Recommended stable investment products include the National Debt ETF (511010) and the 10-Year National Debt ETF (511260) [1] Group 4: Performance of 10-Year National Debt ETF - The 10-Year National Debt ETF (511260) has consistently achieved positive returns since its inception, making it a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [2] - Historical performance shows a 1-year return of 4.17%, a 3-year return of 14.04%, a 5-year return of 23.39%, and a cumulative return of 35.77% since inception [1][2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. However, the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index fell by 0.57% and 0.47%, respectively. The total market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][15] - The overall market sentiment is neutral to weak, with over 3600 stocks declining. Small-cap stocks showed mixed performance, with micro-cap stocks underperforming, while growth stocks slightly outperformed value stocks [1][15] Gold and Precious Metals - Spot gold prices surged past the $5200 per ounce mark, leading to significant gains in gold stocks and the non-ferrous metals sector. The Gold Stock ETF rose by 10.00%, the Mining ETF increased by 7.38%, and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF climbed by 7.37% [1][2][15] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to its safe-haven appeal and a renewed "sell America" trading logic, as market confidence in U.S. assets wavers amid a potential interest rate cut cycle and geopolitical tensions [2][16] Commodity Market Trends - The current rise in precious metals and non-ferrous prices reflects the ongoing realization of core market logic, with clear long-term drivers for gold and silver. However, there are signs of potential acceleration towards a peak in this price wave [3][17] - A super cycle for commodities is anticipated this year, supported by a rebound in real estate and infrastructure investments in China, as well as expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S. during the midterm election year [4][18] Coal and Energy Sector - The Coal ETF saw a significant increase of 4.75%, driven by market sentiment towards resource commodities. The current price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao and Shanxi has stabilized at 685 yuan per ton [6][20] - The oil sector also experienced gains, with the Oil ETF rising by 4.42%. Brent crude oil prices rebounded from around $60 to above $65, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions [7][22] Investment Opportunities - The coal industry shows strong valuation and dividend potential, with a price-to-book ratio of only 1.59 and a dividend yield of 5.82%, making it attractive in the current low-interest-rate environment [21] - Investors are encouraged to consider the largest Oil ETF, which has a scale of 1.021 billion yuan, as it continues to attract capital inflows [8][23]