Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market will remain in a tight - balance state in the fourth quarter, with low domestic and foreign visible inventories and anti - involution factors. The core driver of aluminum prices remains strong. Recently, the Sino - US tariff confrontation has eased, and there is an expected Fed rate cut at the end of the month, so the market at the end of the month should be treated bullishly [4][10] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show differentiation. While the overall short - term opening rate will continue the stable trend [9][23] - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted, coal prices have rebounded, and alumina prices have continued to decline in a volatile manner since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] Detailed Summaries by Catalog Overall Situation - The Guinea rainy - season impact on bauxite is weakening, with increased ore shipments and higher mine复产 expectations. The domestic bauxite supply is constrained by policies. The alumina production capacity is increasing, and the over - supply is widening. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited in the fourth quarter [8] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum products vary. The overall short - term opening rate of the downstream processing industry will remain stable [9][23][24] - The current profit of alumina is about 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 4000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [10][18] - The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision. Any positive or negative signals will strongly affect the sentiment of global risk assets [10] Price Changes - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted. Coal prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and early heating starts. Alumina prices have continued to decline since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] - The prices of most aluminum - related products have increased week - on - week, such as the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price, electrolytic aluminum A00, and aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 [11] Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory is at a low level and may continue to be sorted at a low level [14][16] Supply and Demand - The overall opening rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing has decreased slightly, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [23] - The short - term opening rate of primary aluminum alloy will continue to rise steadily; the demand for aluminum strip is expected to weaken; the aluminum cable high - voltage department has guaranteed orders but limited new growth; automotive profiles are relatively stable, while construction profiles are sluggish, and photovoltaic profiles face production cuts; some aluminum foil orders have weakened; and the resilience of recycled aluminum orders still exists [23] Futures Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is neutral [26] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2180 yuan/ton, and the current spread has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][34] Market Funds - The net long position of LME aluminum continues to rise and is near the high since April 2022. The overall market is still treated bullishly [36] - The net long position of the SHFE electrolytic aluminum remains stable at a recent high. The main funds are slightly bullish [39]