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油脂周报:MPOB7月报告超预期-20250814
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The under - expected palm oil production in both Malaysia and Indonesia has supported the price increase of palm oil, but attention should be paid to whether the export demand can sustain the current price [4] - As of August 8, 2025, South American soybean prices strengthened on a weekly basis, while those in the US Gulf were weak, and rapeseed prices in many regions declined [7] - As of August 8, 2025, Argentine soybean oil prices dropped by over $50/ton on a weekly basis, and US Gulf soybean oil prices fell by $41/ton, while Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices rose slightly [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side Information - In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month to 1.812417 million tons, lower than the institutional estimate of 1.83 million tons. Exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons, higher than the estimate of 1.3 million tons. End - of - July inventory reached 2.11 million tons, lower than the estimate of 2.23 - 2.25 million tons [3] - In July, rainfall in many parts of Malaysia was lower than normal, and the oil extraction rate of palm fruit decreased instead of increasing [3] Price Information - The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $10/ton, compared with $51.5/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $124.4/ton [19] - The price difference between Indian port soybean oil and crude palm oil was $28/ton, lower than $67/ton the previous week. The price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $18/ton, compared with $115/ton the previous week. The price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $23/ton, compared with $54/ton the previous week [24] Purchase and Demand Information - There were no reports of palm oil purchases last week [26] - Last week, domestic buyers purchased 3000 tons each of Dubai rapeseed oil for the October/November shipment, and there were rumors that domestic oil mills purchased rapeseed for the September shipment [33] - Last week, far - month soybean oil transactions remained high, especially against the backdrop of domestic non - procurement of US soybeans [127] Profit and Margin Information - Subsidies decreased, and processing and blending losses increased [120] - European RME prices weakened, but European rapeseed oil prices declined more, and RME processing profit remained at the average level [123] - Palm oil and rapeseed oil basis were stable, while soybean oil basis weakened again [131] Balance Sheet Information - The report provides monthly balance sheets for various oils, including overall oils, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, covering data from 2024 to 2025, showing information on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, end - inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [146]