Workflow
国内市场义务(DMO)计划
icon
Search documents
棕榈油:产地供需两旺,低多为主,豆油:美豆驱动不足,关注国内后续采购
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:18
Report Title - Palm Oil: Supply and Demand in Producing Areas Are Both Strong, Focus on Buying at Low Levels; Soybean Oil: Lack of Drivers from US Soybeans, Pay Attention to Subsequent Domestic Purchases [2] Report Date - August 12, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the supply and demand in producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to buy at low levels; for soybean oil, there is a lack of drivers from US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent domestic purchases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 2.65%, night - session closing price was up 0.20%, with 567,374 lots traded (an increase of 125,153) and 299,985 lots held (a decrease of 5,729) [3] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.67%, night - session closing price was down 0.38%, with 164,012 lots traded (a decrease of 40,472) and 335,019 lots held (a decrease of 29,250) [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.15%, night - session closing price was up 0.33%, with 194,113 lots traded (an increase of 713) and 126,040 lots held (a decrease of 14,440) [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 3.06%, night - session closing price was down 0.27% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.91% [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The price was 8,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The price was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: The price was 1,060 dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 238 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 194 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 18 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The previous trading day was 370 yuan/ton, and the day before was 594 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: It was - 778 yuan/ton, compared with - 592 yuan/ton previously [3] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in July increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, and imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons [4] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [6] - Indonesia: Trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the DMO plan, aiming to lower prices, and the DMO level should be maintained at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out [6] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - Abiove: In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [7] - Secex: Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with an average daily export volume 27% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [7] - CCC: Canada exported 651,106 tons of rapeseed, 223,217 tons of rapeseed oil, and 459,023 tons of rapeseed meal in June 2025. As of June, the 2024/25 annual exports were 8.911907 million tons of rapeseed, 3.127944 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 5.369241 million tons of rapeseed meal [7] - APK - Inform: Lowered the forecast of Ukraine's soybean production this year to 5830,000 tons from the previous 6260,000 tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 1; soybean oil trend intensity was 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [9]