【冠通期货研究报告】 冠通期货 骆利关 油粕日报：延续震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 14 日 豆粕：CONAB：截至 2026 年 1 月 10 日，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 0.6%，高于一周前的 0.1%，低于去年同期的 0.3%，也低于五年同期均值 1.0%。 USDA：1 月 13 日，美国私人出口商报告向中国销售 16.8 万吨大豆，向墨西哥销 售 15.24 万吨大豆，均在 2025/26 年度交货。 市场对于后期抛储时间表仍然不清晰，昨天进口大豆抛储全部溢价成交，说 明市场供应缺口仍存，且需求端短期保持坚挺。近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而 远月合约因为美农报告利空效应保持偏弱走势，如后续南美丰产进度推进 ，有 进一步下行可能。 油脂：印尼高级官员：印尼今年是否推出 B50 生物柴油强制掺混政策，将取 决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。印尼收取棕榈油出口费，用来补贴生物柴油计 划。补贴金额取决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。 周五，加拿大总理将在北京与中国领导人会面，这是八年多来加拿大总理首 次访问中国。知情人士透露，在卡尼访华期间，如果加拿大放宽对中国制造电动 汽车的关税，中国将做 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-01-14 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8778.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.62%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7986.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9017.00元/吨，环比变化+37.00元，幅度+0.41%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.69%，现货基差P05+-18.00，环比变化 +6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+414.00， 环比变化+48.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差 OI05+753.00，环比变化+3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印度12月棕榈油进口量为507204吨，低于11月的632341吨，印度12月葵花籽油进口量为349929 吨，高于11月的142953吨，印度12月大豆油进口量为505112吨，高于11月的370661吨，印度12月植物油进口量为 138万吨，高于11月 ...

来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8778.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.62%；昨日收盘豆油2605 合约7986.00元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9017.00元/吨，环比变化 +37.00元，幅度+0.41%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度 +0.69%，现货基差P05+-18.00，环比变化+6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化 +40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+414.00，环比变化+48.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格 9770.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差OI05+753.00，环比变化+3.00元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 近期市场咨询汇总：印度12月棕榈油进口量为507204吨，低于11月的632341吨，印度12月葵花籽油进口 量为349929吨，高于11月的142953吨，印度12月大豆油进口量为50511 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy depends on the prices of crude oil and crude palm oil [3] - Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons, down from 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons, down from 3.05 million tons in 2025 [3] - The night - session of protein meal futures closed down. Brazil's soybean harvest rate is increasing, and the US Department of Agriculture has adjusted the production and export forecasts of US soybeans, with a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. High domestic soybean meal inventory and the expected high yield of South American soybeans will continue to pressure prices [3] - The night - session of oil futures was weak. The MPOB report had a neutral impact on the market. After the release of the Malaysian palm oil report, the negative factors were exhausted. The improvement in fundamentals is expected to drive the oil sector to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 7986, with a decline of 8 and a decline rate of - 0.10% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of different contracts are presented, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures being - 364, and the M/RM09 ratio of protein meal futures being 1.21 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans are provided. For example, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 3970, with no change and a change rate of 0.00% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in different regions are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8510, with a decline rate of - 0.12% [2] - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis and spreads between different products are presented. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 524, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 150 [2] Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for different imported products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans are provided. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 261, compared with - 232 previously [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for different products such as soybean oil, palm oil are given. For example, the current number of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 29,147, compared with 29,197 previously [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy depends on the prices of crude oil and crude palm oil [4]. - The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [1]. - The POGO (Palm Oil - Gas Oil) spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price had a 0.62% increase, and night - trading had a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - trading closing price had a - 0.10% change, and night - trading had a - 0.03% change; rapeseed oil's day - trading closing price had a 0.41% increase, and night - trading had a - 0.48% change. The Malaysian palm oil main contract had a - 0.68% change during the day and a 0.52% change at night, and CBOT soybean oil main contract had a 1.81% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume increased by 46,791 lots to 558,865 lots, and open interest increased by 21,772 lots to 439,704 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 23,135 lots to 279,777 lots, and open interest increased by 20,236 lots to 709,684 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 6,625 lots to 242,364 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,586 lots to 251,744 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 122 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong is 614 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 983 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts is 239 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts is - 792 yuan/ton, palm oil 5 - 9 spread is 100 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread is 144 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread is 31 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be between 19.5 million and 19.8 million tons in 2026, down from 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons in 2026, down from 3.05 million tons in 2025 [2]. - India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than 632,341 tons in November; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than 142,953 tons in November; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than 370,661 tons in November; total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than 1.18 million tons in November [3][4]. - CBOT soybean futures closed down 1% on Tuesday, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low, due to the USDA's downward adjustment of US soybean export forecasts and upward adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecasts [5]. - Two more oil tankers were attacked near the CPC terminal on Tuesday, bringing the total number of attacked oil tankers to four [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated January 14, 2026, covering various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to narrow [2] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [2] - Soybean meal: Likely to follow US soybeans in digesting the USDA report, with a weakening market [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and the market may fluctuate [2] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2] - Sugar: Expected to operate weakly [2] - Cotton: To continue the adjustment trend [2] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, but sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2] - Hogs: There is negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply continues to be postponed [2] - Peanuts: To operate in a fluctuating manner [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,778 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,758 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton, and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons (20.28 million tons in 2025), and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons (3.05 million tons in 2025). India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than November. Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel policy implementation depends on crude oil and palm oil prices [5][6][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 4,329 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change, and night - session closing price was 4,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change; DCE soybean meal's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a - 1.12% change [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, CBOT soybeans fell to a two - and - a - half - month low. The USDA lowered US soybean export forecasts by 60 million bushels (1.63 million tons) and raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Private exporters reported sales of 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the day - session and 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change in the night - session; the closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase in the day - session and 2,278 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change in the night - session [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton, and containerized first - class grain port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.84 US cents/pound with a - 0.05 change, the mainstream spot price was 5,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the futures main contract price was 5,253 yuan/ton with a - 32 change [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 31, the 2025/26 Indian sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year. India has signed 180,000 tons of export contracts this season. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons) [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,760 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase in the day - session and 14,745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change in the night - session; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,765 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase in the day - session and 20,820 yuan/ton with a 0.26% change in the night - session [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading weakened. Some cotton merchants slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The overall price of pure cotton yarn was stable, but the actual transaction center moved down slightly. The downstream weaving mills' new orders were limited, and the grey fabric inventory was high [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,960 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.53% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 2,990 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.32% change [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton with a 100 increase, the Sichuan spot price was 13,000 yuan/ton with a - 100 change, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,260 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of hog 2603 was 11,795 yuan/ton with a 60 increase, the closing price of hog 2605 was 12,170 yuan/ton with a 5 increase, and the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,830 yuan/ton with a 5 increase [32] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton with a - 100 change. The closing price of PK603 was 7,862 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,874 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change [35] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin, and the price of Xingcheng "Little Japan" peanuts was 4.1 - 4.37 yuan/jin [36]

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：偏强震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 豆粕：美国农业部：2025/26 年度全球大豆前景包括产量增加、压榨量上升、 出口减少以及期末库存增加。全球大豆产量上调 310 万吨，达到 4.257 亿吨，反 映出巴西和美国的产量提高，但中国的产量有所下降。由于生长季高峰期中西部 地区天气有利，巴西大豆产量上调 300 万吨，达到 1.78 亿吨。此外，巴西南部 季初气候良好且降雨充足，也进一步提升了产量预期，尤其是与前几年该地区遭 遇干旱相比。巴西和美国的大豆压榨量及豆粕出口量均有所上调，同时欧盟的大 豆粕进口量也增加。由于进口豆粕供应增加，欧盟的大豆压榨量和大豆进口量被 下调。 市场对于后期抛储时间表仍然不清晰，今天大豆抛储虽然接近 114 万吨，但 是成交量高企，且产生部分溢价，说明市场供应缺口仍存，且需求端短期保持坚 挺。近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合约因为美农报告利空效应保持偏弱走 势，如后续南美丰产进度推进 ，有进一步下行可能。 油脂：贸易机构：印度 12 月棕榈油进口量为 507204 吨，低于 11 月的 632341 吨，印度 12 月葵花籽油进口量 ...

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 65 contracts rising and 14 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant increases were observed in the prices of coking coal (+5.14%), coke (+4.21%), lithium carbonate (+4.17%), crude oil (+4.05%), and fuel oil (+3.42%) [5] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in rapeseed (-1.22%), palm oil (-1.0%), and soybean oil (-0.7%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were into the CSI 1000 (+7.413 billion), CSI 500 (+3.16 billion), and CSI 300 (+3.043 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest capital outflows were from gold (-1.741 billion), soybean meal (-553 million), and silver (-379 million), suggesting notable withdrawals from these commodities [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were seen in lithium carbonate (+18.66%), coking coal (+14.44%), and CSI 1000 (+11.70%), indicating new funds entering these markets [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were recorded in lead (-12.28%), tin (-13.84%), and industrial silicon (-21.09%), suggesting potential exits by major funds [11] Key Events - In September, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with the total reaching 888.6 billion kWh [12] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.7021 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 thousand tons from the previous week [12] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy may be delayed until 2027 due to funding constraints and unfavorable price differentials [13] Industry Insights - The urea industry is experiencing a significant decline in operating rates, with new high inventory levels reported [14] - As of October 23, rebar production has increased, while both factory and social inventories have decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - Glass inventory has reached a three-month high, with a notable increase in stock levels across most regions [15] Future Focus - Upcoming data releases include U.S. initial jobless claims and September CPI, which are expected to influence market sentiment and economic outlook [17][18]

Report Title - Palm Oil: Supply and Demand in Producing Areas Are Both Strong, Focus on Buying at Low Levels; Soybean Oil: Lack of Drivers from US Soybeans, Pay Attention to Subsequent Domestic Purchases [2] Report Date - August 12, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the supply and demand in producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to buy at low levels; for soybean oil, there is a lack of drivers from US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent domestic purchases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 2.65%, night - session closing price was up 0.20%, with 567,374 lots traded (an increase of 125,153) and 299,985 lots held (a decrease of 5,729) [3] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.67%, night - session closing price was down 0.38%, with 164,012 lots traded (a decrease of 40,472) and 335,019 lots held (a decrease of 29,250) [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.15%, night - session closing price was up 0.33%, with 194,113 lots traded (an increase of 713) and 126,040 lots held (a decrease of 14,440) [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 3.06%, night - session closing price was down 0.27% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.91% [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The price was 8,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The price was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: The price was 1,060 dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 238 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 194 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 18 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The previous trading day was 370 yuan/ton, and the day before was 594 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: It was - 778 yuan/ton, compared with - 592 yuan/ton previously [3] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in July increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, and imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons [4] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [6] - Indonesia: Trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the DMO plan, aiming to lower prices, and the DMO level should be maintained at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out [6] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - Abiove: In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [7] - Secex: Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with an average daily export volume 27% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [7] - CCC: Canada exported 651,106 tons of rapeseed, 223,217 tons of rapeseed oil, and 459,023 tons of rapeseed meal in June 2025. As of June, the 2024/25 annual exports were 8.911907 million tons of rapeseed, 3.127944 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 5.369241 million tons of rapeseed meal [7] - APK - Inform: Lowered the forecast of Ukraine's soybean production this year to 5830,000 tons from the previous 6260,000 tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 1; soybean oil trend intensity was 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is mixed with both long and short factors. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation due to a single supply source. The direction of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [3]. - The oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside space is restricted by multiple factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to decline in the future, considering the increasing import supply, high import profit, and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [12]. - The cotton market is under short - term bearish pressure due to the weak downstream consumption, low operating rate, and the failure of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement to be finalized [15]. - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, opportunities for short - selling after a rebound should be focused on due to the large supply scale [17]. - For the pig market, medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meals - **Important Information**: Due to Trump's call for China to buy soybeans, US soybeans rose while domestic soybean meal declined. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday. The soybean crushing volume is expected to increase this week, with a significant increase in soybean inventory and a slight decrease in soybean meal inventory last week. The US soybean is undervalued and in a state of oversupply, and the domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly report on Tuesday evening [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Against the background of global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared with the same period last month. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is supported by multiple factors, but the upside space is restricted. The palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy, but it should be viewed as fluctuating [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan remained unchanged, and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar factories varied. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased slightly. In July, Brazil's sugar exports to China decreased [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the sales space of domestic sugar is squeezed. The futures price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories declined, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the downstream consumption is weak. The cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas rising slightly. The supply was generally sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term market may fluctuate, and medium - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [17]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend, with some areas rising, some falling, and some remaining stable. The market supply and demand are in a game, and the pig prices may be mainly stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. Medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20].