Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Soybean oil [1] - Report cycle: Weekly report [1] - Written date: January 30, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The DCE soybean oil main contract (Y2605) showed a trend of "four consecutive rises and then a callback" this week, reaching a weekly high of 8,410 yuan/ton and finally closing at 8,282 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.35% [2] - The expectation of the US biodiesel policy implementation and domestic inventory depletion provided main supports. However, on Friday, affected by foreign fund selling and weakening demand at the end of the Spring Festival stocking, the futures price dropped from a high level, and the trading volume significantly increased, indicating intensified divergence between bulls and bears [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The weekly basis fluctuated in the range of 452 - 494 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 5.19% - 5.60%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same historical period, reflecting that the tight spot supply pattern remained unchanged [3][5] - On January 30, the spot price was 8,680 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day), the basis was 488 yuan/ton, and the linkage between spot and futures strengthened [5] Group 4: Influencing Factors - Industry News - Inventory continued the depletion trend: The national port soybean oil inventory dropped to 892,000 tons on January 27, a 18.6% week - on - week decrease from 1.0963 million tons on January 23, with seven consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [6] - The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 26,525 lots to 25,960 lots, and the reduction of deliverable goods further supported the basis [6] - Pressure emerged on the supply side: The oil mill operating rate remained at a high level (about 62.38% on January 30), last week's soybean crushing volume was 2.09 million tons (a week - on - week increase of 170,000 tons), and the incremental soybean oil supply was gradually released, which might suppress the subsequent inventory depletion speed [6] Group 5: Influencing Factors - Technical Analysis - Price pattern: It showed a pattern of "step - by - step increase + single - day callback" this week. In the first four trading days, it steadily rose along the 5 - day moving average, and on Friday, it broke below the 5 - day moving average (8,310 yuan/ton), forming a negative line with a long upper shadow, indicating significant pressure near 8,400 yuan/ton [7] - Support and pressure: The 8,300 - 8,350 yuan/ton range was a short - term strong pressure zone (tested multiple times but not broken on January 28 - 29), and the 8,200 - 8,250 yuan/ton range was a key support (the Friday low of 8,224 yuan/ton was close to the lower limit of this range) [7] - Volume - price cooperation: The trading volume moderately increased during the rising stage (384,400 lots on January 27), and suddenly increased to 389,700 lots on the callback day. The volume - price divergence implied short - term adjustment demand [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Policy and inventory are still the core drivers. The implementation rhythm of the US biodiesel policy and the domestic inventory depletion speed will dominate the short - term trend. If the policy exceeds expectations or the inventory continues to decline, the futures price is expected to resume an upward trend; otherwise, the expectation of a bumper harvest and weakening demand may intensify the callback [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a rebound driven by a weaker US dollar and domestic inventory reduction, but the London copper market faces resistance from the 100-day moving average, raising questions about the sustainability of the rebound [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai copper market is rising due to a decline in domestic inventories and a weaker US dollar [1] - The London copper market is encountering resistance at the 100-day moving average, which may hinder further price increases [1] - The future of the copper market's rebound remains uncertain, contingent on overcoming technical resistance levels [1]