Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

Market Movements - US stock futures experienced a significant surge, with the Dow Jones futures rising by 2.72%, S&P 500 futures increasing by 2.37%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up by 2.19% [1] - The FTSE China A50 index futures also saw a rise of over 1% [2] - European stock markets quickly gained, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 3.51%, France's CAC 40 index increasing by 2.62%, Germany's DAX 30 index rising by 4.26%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index up by 2.22% [2] Oil Market Impact - Following President Trump's announcement of a five-day pause on military strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, international oil prices plummeted, with WTI crude oil dropping by 10.16% to $88.25 per barrel and Brent crude oil falling by 7.87% to $98.08 per barrel [4] Commodity Prices - London copper rose over 4% to $12,315.90 per ton, while London nickel increased by 2.00% to $17,178.40 per ton [5] - In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin surged to $71,183.4, marking a 3.69% increase in the past 24 hours, and Ethereum rose to $2,161.96, with a 3.81% increase [5] Geopolitical Developments - Iran's ambassador to India denied claims regarding charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a fee of $2 million, amidst reports of Indian-flagged vessels navigating near Iranian waters [6] - The US aircraft carrier Ford arrived at Souda Bay in Greece for repairs after a fire incident, indicating ongoing military movements in the region [6]

Group 1 - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond decreased by 8.4 basis points, now at 4.307% [1] - European stocks turned positive, with the German DAX and French CAC40 indices rising over 2% during the day [2] - The price of copper in London increased by over 4%, currently at $12,315.90 per ton, while nickel rose by 2% to $17,178.40 per ton [2] Group 2 - Spot gold saw a narrowing decline of 1.08%, now priced at $4,443 per ounce, while spot silver increased by 1.6% [3] - International oil prices experienced a sharp drop, with both WTI and Brent crude oil falling over 13% [4] - Dow Jones futures rose by 1.92%, S&P 500 futures increased by 2.30%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 2.08% [5] Group 3 - The Turkish Istanbul 100 index declined by 3.11% [6] - The UK 2-year Treasury yield rose by 14 basis points to 4.71%, marking a new high since November 2023 [7] - The US 2-year Treasury yield reached 4% for the first time since June, hitting its highest level since June 2025 [8][9]

Group 1: Core Views - The article discusses the United States' strategic plans to seize Iran's nuclear reserves amid escalating tensions, with Iran's military threatening severe retaliation against U.S. and Israeli officials [1][2][6]. Group 2: U.S. Plans and Military Actions - Reports indicate that the U.S. is considering deploying forces from the Joint Special Operations Command for sensitive anti-proliferation tasks, although no final decision has been made by President Trump [3][4]. - The Pentagon has stated that preparing for potential military actions is part of its responsibilities, while the White House has not commented on the specifics of the plans [4][5]. Group 3: Iran's Nuclear Capabilities - As of last summer, Iran had accumulated approximately 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is close to weapons-grade material, with most of it buried under the rubble of bombed nuclear facilities [5][6]. - Iran's Foreign Minister has indicated that the country has made significant concessions in indirect nuclear negotiations with the U.S., expressing a willingness to dilute its enriched uranium under international supervision [6]. Group 4: Military Threats from Iran - Iran's military has issued threats of devastating strikes against U.S. and Israeli personnel, asserting that they will not be safe even abroad [7]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has launched operations targeting over 55 Israeli military sites and U.S. bases in the Middle East, employing various missile systems [8]. Group 5: Financial Market Reactions - Global financial markets have experienced significant sell-offs, with U.S. stocks declining for four consecutive weeks, marking the longest losing streak in a year [9][10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged by 13.4 basis points in a single day, while European bond markets also faced substantial declines, with the UK 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2008 [9]. - Analysts suggest that the market is pricing in the expectation of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, leading to defensive adjustments by investors [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, global risk appetite is disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. - The inflation rebound still exerts potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet solid, and the strength of the credit start is weak. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short-term market risk aversion sentiment is favorable for the bond market to rise. However, if the conflict lasts longer than expected, inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of the 10-year US bond yield have significantly suppressed the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the price of gold still has the risk of further decline. However, once the interest rate expectation changes significantly or the market risk aversion sentiment heats up again, the price of gold may rise again [7][8]. - The US's tough stance on the Middle East war has softened. Although risk appetite has been frustrated under the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute has strengthened to support the copper price. The short-term support for the copper price is strong, and it is expected to run in a range [11]. - The supply of aluminum in the Middle East is worried due to the closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East war. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be strong and run in a range [13]. - The zinc industry in China remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is still worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. During the conflict, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [15]. - Although there has been a large accumulation of lead ingots at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The smelting profit of smelting enterprises that is declining marginally may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. - In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia is gradually implemented, and the price center of nickel ore is rising. It is expected that the nickel price will slowly fluctuate upward. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the inventory still maintains a small increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [17]. - Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, it should also be noted that the supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has steadily increased recently. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The tension in the Iran situation has led to a significant correction in lithium carbonate and other previously rebounding varieties. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market in the future [20]. - The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end continues to be in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock [22]. - With the continuous intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are generally under pressure to fall back. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased significantly, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong. After the festival, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises will promote the improvement of demand. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to be strong [26]. - The current fundamentals of the black system are significantly weaker than expected before the festival. In the short term, the core contradiction is still inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, the price is unlikely to reverse the trend and is likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [29]. - After the end of the weather influence, the overseas supply recovers, and the high inventory suppresses the price increase. The iron water production on the demand side recovers well. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [31]. - In the short term, the coking coal and coke market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility, and the black sector is in a weak state. There is a risk of a phased correction in coking coal in the short term, but it is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market in 2026, especially from June to October [36]. - The glass market is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern in the short term due to high inventory and slow demand release. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock pattern due to the expected reduction in supply and slow demand release [38][40]. - In the long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue, but the short - term market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility. The black sector is in a weak state. The future trend of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore supply and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [43][44]. - The industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon price is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new "anti - involution" related statements in important meetings [46][49]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For crude oil, a mid - term layout is the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail risks. For methanol, it is recommended to take profits when the price is high. For urea, it is recommended to short - allocate on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities. For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost. For ethylene glycol, pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. For p - xylene, pay attention to the follow - up situation in the medium term. For polyethylene and polypropylene, the prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and for polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [54][56][58][60][64][66][69][71][73][76]. - For live pigs, the near - term contract should be treated with a short - bias after the rebound, and the far - end contract should not be over - chased. For eggs, pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - end contract. For soybean and rapeseed meal, wait for the price to pull back before trying to buy. For oils and fats, go long at low prices. For sugar, go long with a small amount at low prices. For cotton, go long at low prices [79][81][83][86][88][90]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US stock panic index VIX rose 24% to 26.6 points; the European natural gas price increase expanded to 40% to 62.5 euros/MWh, and it rose more than 100% in two days; the US State Department issued 6 evacuation orders; the top five in the global AI application monthly active list are ChatGPT, Doubao, Qianwen, Quark, and DeepSeek, with Qianwen's growth rate reaching 552% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed by 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th. The central bank conducted 343 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4917 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inflation rebound has potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not solid. The US - Iran conflict has increased short - term risk aversion sentiment, but if the conflict lasts long, inflation may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may push up inflation expectations, and the Fed officials' cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts supports the US dollar [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppress the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the gold price may fall; otherwise, it may rise. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the reference range of Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices fluctuated lower. LME copper 3M contract fell 0.92% to 12964 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101330 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot discount in East China and Guangdong narrowed, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US's stance on the Middle East war has softened. The key mineral resource attribute supports the copper price. The short - term support for the copper price is strong, with the reference range of Shanghai copper at 100000 - 104000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at 12700 - 13300 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, the supply of aluminum was disturbed, and the price rose. LME aluminum 3M contract rose 2.83% to 3275 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24410 yuan/ton. The position of Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has reached a high level, but it is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The Middle East war has increased the supply concern of aluminum. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong, with the reference range of Shanghai aluminum at 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M at 3220 - 3350 US dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 1.90% to 24401 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 55.5 to 3300 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of zinc ingots increased, and the import loss was - 2660.88 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely during the conflict [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.27% to 16847 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 13.5 to 1964.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of lead ingots increased, and the import profit was 598.52 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead ore inventory and TC increased slightly, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased. The smelter's operating rate declined, and the downstream demand has not fully recovered. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.86% to 135450 yuan/ton. The spot premium and discount remained stable, and the price of nickel ore was flat. The price of ferronickel continued to rise [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise slowly. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low, with the reference range of Shanghai nickel at 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M at 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 11.06% to 394890 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is worried, but there is no impact on production for the time being. The production of refined tin is at a low level, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong, but the supply and demand are marginally loose, and the inventory has increased. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract at 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 47000 - 52000 US dollars/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 8.16% to 159322 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 12.30% to 150860 yuan, and the premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 950 yuan [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tension in the Iran situation has led to a correction in lithium carbonate. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138000 - 160000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the alumina index rose 1.24% to 2820 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price in Shandong rose, and the import loss was - 4 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the price of ore remained stable [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end is in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the reference range of the domestic main contract A02605 is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract fell 1.39% to 14185 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the raw material price increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are under pressure. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern, with

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. - In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will gradually raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to slowly rise in a volatile manner. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and inventories continue to increase slightly. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [19]. - In the long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of volatility and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [38][44]. - The supply of the float glass market remains stable, while the demand is weak. The industry inventory has risen significantly, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The spot market of soda ash is still full of wait - and - see sentiment, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern [40][41]. - The prices of rubber RU and NR are expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the strong trend of the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [55]. - The current oil price has already priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. It is recommended to adopt a mid - term layout strategy but wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail - risks [57]. - The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips in the medium - term [59]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and combined with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate [61]. - After the Saudi refinery closure and the attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of cooling. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of the valuation is narrowing. It is necessary to wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. - The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, and the demand is under pressure. The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor [65]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. In the short term, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and inventory reduction. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [68]. - As the expectation of PTA maintenance decreases, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The processing fee of PTA has fallen back, and there is room for the valuation to rise in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX and crude oil [70]. - The PX load remains high, and the overall load of downstream PTA is relatively low, resulting in a short - term inventory accumulation pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reduction cycle. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [72]. - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the spot price of polyethylene has risen. The downward space for PE valuation still exists, and the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the overall start - up rate is expected to bottom out and rebound [74]. - The cost of polypropylene is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - dominated downward trend to the production mismatch. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [76]. - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale of pigs is large, and the average trading weight is high, indicating limited inventory clearance. The short - term rebound of the spot price is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish attitude towards the near - term contract. The far - term contract is supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the upside space is also limited [79]. - The inventory of laying hens is large, but the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected, and the inventory has not significantly accumulated. However, the increase in stocking behaviors may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - term contract [81]. - Due to the market rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the soybean meal price has risen significantly. The export sales of US soybeans have improved, and the import cost has increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [84]. - Affected by the weekend geopolitical crisis, the short - term rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. The inventory of vegetable oils in China and India at the end of January has further decreased, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February has weakened the oil prices. It is advisable to wait for the oil prices to stabilize at a low level and then consider buying [86]. - The decline in India's sugar production in the first half of February and the increase in Thailand's production offset each other. The raw sugar price has fallen to a historical low and is continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been alleviated, and there may be a rebound. It is advisable to participate in long - positions in small amounts on dips [89]. - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased positions and prices significantly, speculating in advance on the peak season in March. It is necessary to focus on the downstream start - up situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for the Zhengzhou cotton price to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips [91]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Large - scale Fund has made its first investment in embodied intelligence, and Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of 2.5 billion yuan; the European natural gas price has risen by 42%, reaching the largest increase since March 2022, and Qatar Energy Company will stop the production of liquefied natural gas; MiniMax's total revenue in 2025 reached 79.038 million US dollars, with 73% of the revenue coming from the international market, and the gross profit margin increased to 25.4%, exceeding market expectations; Deutsche Telekom has cooperated with Starlink to expand the mobile network coverage [2]. - **Strategy View**: Amid the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 112.740, 108.530, 106.080, and 102.464 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01%. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; the final value of France's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.1, higher than the expected 49.9; the VIX index rose to 25.24 points on March 2, reaching the highest level since November last year. The central bank conducted 1.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net investment of 1.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the year - on - year CPI in January was lower than expected, while the PPI improved both year - on - year and month - on - month. The potential suppression of inflation on the bond market still exists. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, and the credit at the beginning of the year was weak. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.14% to 1,184.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 22,939.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.80% to 5,342.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.83% to 89.72 US dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.05%, and the US dollar index was 98.55. After the US - Israel joint military strike on Iran, the situation has continued to escalate, increasing the tail - risk in the Middle East. The demand for safe - haven assets has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The US ISM - PMI data in February 2026 was 52.4, higher than market expectations, and the overall was still in the expansion range. The price index has risen significantly, while the employment market is still weak [9]. - **Strategy View**: After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai gold main contract being 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver main contract being 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of gold and crude oil have risen, while copper prices have risen and then fallen. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.59% to 13,084 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,280 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 28,000 tons. The spot discount of copper in the East China region has narrowed, while that in the Guangdong region has widened. The domestic copper spot import loss is about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has slightly narrowed [12]. - **Strategy View**: Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, although risk appetite has been affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper has been strengthened, and there is a risk of supply interruption, so copper prices still have strong support. The increase in crude oil prices has reduced the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term. Domestically, with the arrival of the Two Sessions and the release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real estate market, there is support in terms of sentiment. The TC of the copper industry is running at a low level, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. As the downstream start - up rate further increases, the global copper inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper contract is 12,950 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased concerns about supply, driving up aluminum prices. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.38% to 3,185 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,195 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 29,000 tons to 693,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 295,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by more than 70,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 464,000 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a high level, but with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the inventory is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The US - Israel military action against Iran has increased the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and the electrolytic aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32 is still expected to be shut down for maintenance in March. Coupled with the high spot premium of aluminum in North America and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,140 - 3,240 US dollars/ton [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.60% to 24,874 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 189,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc price fell 24.5 US dollars to 3,355.5 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 226,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,370 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 70,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,400 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased by 31,600 tons to 211,900 tons on March 2 [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the conflict in Iran on zinc ore supply is relatively small, but market concerns about trade disruptions and energy price increases may briefly push up zinc prices from the sentiment side [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.28% to 16,893 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 112,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead price fell 8.5 US dollars to 1,978 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 171,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,900 tons to 67,100 tons on March 2 [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the lead ore inventory has increased slightly, the TC of lead concentrate has increased slightly, and the inventory of recycled raw materials has decreased marginally. The start - up rate of smelters has declined, and the start -

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that copper prices are showing a strong upward trend despite increasing global copper inventories and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - The LME copper inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 253,600 tons, while domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 536,100 tons [1] - Domestic demand for copper remains limited as downstream enterprises are slowly resuming operations, leading to a continued increase in overall inventory [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment improved during the day, with copper prices rising by 1.19% despite a significant drop in the Nasdaq index, which initially suppressed market emotions [1] - The domestic policy environment is becoming more favorable, contributing to the strong performance of copper prices [1] - The market is weighing the intensity of consumption during the post-holiday peak season against the backdrop of high visible copper inventories globally [1]

Group 1 - LME metal futures experienced a general decline, with copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel all reporting losses, while tin showed resilience with a five-day consecutive increase [1] - As of the close, London copper was priced at $13,259, down $90.5, a decrease of 0.68%; London aluminum was at $3,141.5, down $33, a decrease of 1.04%; London zinc was at $3,366.5, down $20.5, a decrease of 0.61%; London lead was at $1,979, down $16.5, a decrease of 0.83%; London tin was at $54,385, up $470, an increase of 0.87%; London nickel was at $17,730, down $315, a decrease of 1.75% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that copper prices are experiencing a significant increase, with a rise of 2.25%, currently reported at $13,198 per ton [1] Group 2 - The news highlights the ongoing strength in copper prices, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - The increase in copper prices may reflect broader economic conditions or demand factors influencing the metal market [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a general decline, with the exception of tin, which saw an increase in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper closed at $12,901, down $99, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - LME aluminum closed at $3,091, down $14.5, a decrease of 0.47% [1] - LME zinc closed at $3,345.5, down $32.5, a decrease of 0.96% [1] - LME lead closed at $1,952, down $14.5, a decrease of 0.74% [1] - LME tin closed at $47,370, up $630, an increase of 1.35% [1] - LME nickel closed at $17,285, down $150, a decrease of 0.86% [1]