。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | 2025-11-18 较昨日变动 | | | 变重名称 2025-11-26 | | 2025-11-25 | | | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -10.00 | | | 86590 | | 86600 | 85650 | | | | 成交堂(手) | | | 107213 | | 86982 | 86217 | 20, 231. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) | | | 204728 | | 199582 | 164396 | 5,146.00 | | | 库存(吨) | | | 39825 | | 40965 | 60874 | -1,140.00 | | | 沪铜县差 | | | 65 | | 10 | 355 | 55.00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜一半 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices are primarily driven by geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations, particularly regarding oil, gold, and copper markets [3][4][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced significant declines due to market speculation about a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions and an oversupply situation in 2024 [3]. - Despite a slight recovery following the implementation of U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, the overall sentiment remains bearish due to ongoing expectations of a peace deal [3][4]. Gold Market - Gold prices have shown volatility, initially declining due to profit-taking but later recovering as the New York Fed President signaled potential interest rate cuts, increasing market bets on a December rate reduction [3][4]. - The geopolitical tensions in Europe and the U.S. stance on Ukraine continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, despite short-term fluctuations [3][5]. Copper Market - Copper prices have risen contrary to the overall trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts which lower financing costs for businesses and could boost industrial demand [4]. - Other base metals like aluminum and zinc have not followed copper's upward trend, indicating a divergence within the sector [4]. Investment Strategy - For long-term investment, the focus should be on the overarching trends of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and actual supply-demand dynamics rather than short-term market noise [5]. - The oil market may face continued volatility in the short term, but long-term supply-demand balance will be crucial for price direction [5]. - Gold remains a viable long-term investment due to its role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, with short-term pullbacks presenting potential buying opportunities [5]. - Basic metals like copper should be monitored for industrial demand recovery, as this will influence their long-term price trends [5].

文字早评 2025/11/20 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、外交部：如日方拒不撤回涉台错误言论 一切后果由日方承担； 2、中金公司：拟换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券 明起停牌； 3、荷兰高官：已暂停对安世半导体的干预； 4、机构：在 2026 年第二季度之前 内存价格预计将再上涨约 50%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.11%/-0.50%/-1.22%/-2.16%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.09%/-0.95%/-3.47%/-6.44%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-1.20%/-4.31%/-7.43%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.08%/-0.31%/-0.46%/-0.80%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，近期热点板块快速轮动，科技成长仍是市场主线。从大方向看，政策支持资本市 场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 116.090 ，环比变化-0.38%；T 主力合约收于 108.425 ，环比变 化-0.07%；TF 主力合约收于 105.880 ，环 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，专盯中长线投资的老江湖了。今天一早打开行情软件，大宗商品市场挺有意思——油价跌得不少，黄金 稳稳当当，伦铜悄悄回升，这三块料凑一起，看着乱其实有章法，咱们今天就聊点实在的，从短期波动里挖中长线的门道。 先说说最受关注的油价，昨天跌了2.1%，是一周来最大跌幅，WTI收在59美元上方，不少朋友可能慌了：这是要开启下跌通道了？其实不用急，咱们先 看为啥跌。一方面是美国那边出了库存数据，汽油和馏分油库存一个多月来第一次增加，供应端看着宽松了；另一方面更关键，俄乌冲突有了新动静， 泽连斯基去土耳其重启谈判，还有消息说美俄在研究结束冲突的新计划，虽然克里姆林宫否认了，但市场对地缘风险的担忧确实降温了。要知道这轮油 价波动，地缘冲突一直是重要推手，现在风险缓和，资金自然会先兑现利润。 但帮主得说句实在的，做中长线投资，不能盯着单条消息追涨杀跌。我跑财经口20年，见证过好几次地缘事件引发的油价波动，最后都会回归供需基本 面。现在美国对俄罗斯石油生产商的制裁还在，全球能源格局的重构也没结束，短期库存增加和地缘降温带来的下跌，更像是趋势中的回调，不是反 转。对中长线投资者来说，不用怕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in commodity markets is driven by geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, and market sentiment, which presents both opportunities and risks for medium to long-term investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - The rise in crude oil prices is primarily due to tightening sanctions against Russia by the EU and the impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a decrease in supply [3]. - WTI crude oil has maintained a price above $60, with traders suggesting that it is unlikely to fall below this level unless there is a significant market downturn [3]. - The potential for further price increases exists if new sanctions are announced, indicating a bullish outlook for the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - The decline in copper and other industrial metals is linked to changing expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors cautious ahead of upcoming employment data [4][5]. - Industrial metals are closely tied to economic demand, and concerns about delayed rate cuts have led to increased selling pressure, despite previous supply concerns [4]. - For medium to long-term investors, focusing on metals with strong demand and supply constraints is recommended, particularly after price corrections [5]. Group 3: Gold Market - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of stock market volatility [4]. - Gold prices are also influenced by interest rate expectations, and while there may be short-term gains, long-term trends will depend on broader market conditions [4][5]. - It is advised to maintain a portion of gold as a hedge against risk rather than pursuing aggressive trading strategies [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on supply-demand dynamics for oil and industrial metals, particularly in light of geopolitical developments and economic recovery trends [5][6]. - Monitoring U.S. employment reports is crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions, which will impact commodity markets significantly [5][6]. - Practical investment strategies include waiting for price corrections in oil, avoiding panic selling in industrial metals, and maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments [5][6].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The copper price is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term. Although the copper price has fallen from its high due to the hawkish signals from Fed officials, the pressure from the macro - side on the copper price is not expected to last. The tight spot market and frequent copper mine accidents provide support for the copper price [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On Monday, the Shanghai copper price dropped 0.91% to 86,450, and the total positions decreased by 11,326 lots. The copper price fell from its high due to the hawkish signals from Fed officials. The spot price dropped 585 to 86,510, and the spot premium increased 50 to 105. The month - to - month spread of the last trading day fluctuated significantly, and the premium of Shanghai copper against the current month strengthened significantly [9]. - The social inventory decreased by 0.73 tons over the weekend because of less imported and domestic arrivals. The LME0 - 3 swap fee turned to back at 3.88, and the Shanghai - London ratio fell below 8, leading to an expansion of the spot import loss to over 900. The short - term import window remained closed, and the supply of imported goods was expected to decline [9]. - The increase in spot premiums at home and abroad highlighted the tightness of the spot market. The probability of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to 40% due to the Fed officials' remarks. A large number of important US data will be released starting this Thursday, but the inflation and employment data in October still face challenges, which may lead to significant differences in the December Fed meeting. A rate cut in December is still ruled out in the short term [9]. - A bridge collapse at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo over the weekend caused 32 deaths. Frequent copper mine accidents maintained the support from the mine end [9]. 2. Industry News - On Saturday, a bridge at a copper mine in the southeast of the Democratic Republic of Congo collapsed, causing 49 deaths and sending 20 seriously injured people to the hospital [12]. - On November 15, Huixin Copper Industry in Siziwangqi Bainaimiao area cooperated with Amaowusu Mining Company for copper mining and beneficiation. The project with an annual output of 10,000 tons of copper concentrate powder and an annual processing capacity of 800,000 tons of ore officially started production. It is expected to process 6,000 tons of raw ore and produce 3,200 tons of copper concentrate powder by the end of the year, with an output value of 64 million yuan. After the deep exploration and mine operation are completed next year, the industrial output value will reach 1.1 billion yuan [12]. - The second - phase expansion project of Sichuan Southwest Copper Industry Co., Ltd. has completed the main construction and entered the final stage. The project focuses on the efficient and circular use of resources and will build a production line for the deep - processing of waste high - voltage cable copper with an annual processing capacity of 53,200 tons. After the full operation of the second - phase project, the company's total production capacity will reach 170,000 tons. It is expected to achieve an output value of 1.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of this year and a total annual output value of 4.5 billion yuan [13].

聊到这儿，给咱中长线投资者说句实在的策略：咱不做短线投机，别被一天的涨跌牵着鼻子走。油价要看OPEC+增产和地缘风险的博弈，金价等美联储 12月会议的明确信号，基本金属重点盯下游需求复苏的动静。中长线赚钱的关键，是抓准核心矛盾，等确定性机会，而不是在消息面里追涨杀跌。 好了，今天就跟大家唠到这儿，20年跟盘的经验，只跟大家说实在的逻辑、靠谱的判断。觉得帮主说的有用，就多关注转发，后续大宗商品有新动向， 我第一时间跟大家同步！要不要我帮你整理一份本次大宗商品核心影响因素的精简笔记，方便你随时查看？收起 再说说金价，这两天跌得让不少人纳闷。核心原因特简单，之前大家都笃定美联储12月会降息，黄金不生息，降息预期一强它就涨；可现在美联储官员 开始喊"通胀可能停滞"，降息的事儿突然变得不确定了，预期一降温，金价自然就回调了。不过帮主得提醒一句，咱中长线看，金价的核心还是跟着美联 储政策走，短期的情绪波动别太当真。 还有伦铜这些基本金属，为啥也跟着跌？说白了就是美元走强了，近两周美元指数涨得挺猛，以美元计价的大宗商品，美元一涨吸引力就降，这是老祖 宗传下来的规律。但大家别慌，基本金属长期看的是全球经济复苏的需求，短期跟着 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年11月17日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，正式结束美政府"停摆"。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维持利率不变的概率为55.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为 48.6%，维持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 ➢ 供给方面：11月预计5家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能150万吨，预计检修影响量为4.80万吨，但10月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端 积极性增加，产量有望上移。据SMM调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价 上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。 ➢ 需求方面：铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with a short-term rebound seen as a temporary relief rather than a reversal [3] - The International Energy Agency has indicated a supply surplus for oil next year, while U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels, the largest rise since July [3] - The market is reacting to increased sanctions on Russian oil companies and a decline in refined oil inventories, suggesting that demand remains resilient [3] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have stabilized after four consecutive days of increases, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which had previously hindered the release of key economic data [3] - Copper is viewed as an "industrial barometer," closely tied to infrastructure and manufacturing, with domestic growth initiatives supporting demand [3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 50% [4] - Gold's appeal diminishes when interest rates do not decrease or rise, but its long-term value is still linked to inflation and global risk sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Companies in the energy sector should focus on those with reasonable valuations and stable cash flows, particularly in oil and gas extraction and refining [5] - For copper-related investments, attention should be given to firms tied to domestic infrastructure and new energy projects, as demand is expected to remain strong [5] - In the gold sector, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until interest rate expectations become clearer or global risk sentiment increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices highlight the contrasting dynamics in the market, with oil prices experiencing significant declines while precious metals and copper prices are on the rise, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices fell by 4.2%, closing just above $58, marking the largest drop since June, primarily due to oversupply concerns [3]. - OPEC revised its earlier forecast of a supply deficit in the oil market to a surplus, indicating an excess of 500,000 barrels per day [3]. - The current market situation is characterized by near-term contracts being cheaper than long-term contracts, signaling an oversupply [3]. Precious Metals and Copper - Gold prices increased by 1.6% and silver surged by 3.8%, as market participants anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The expectation of a weakening economy, coupled with low interest rates, makes holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver more attractive [3]. - Copper prices also rose by over 1%, as lower interest rates are expected to stimulate demand, and a weaker dollar would further support copper prices [3]. Investment Strategy - For long-term investors, it is advised to avoid rushing into oil investments until there are clear signs of improvement in the supply-demand balance [5]. - In the case of gold and silver, it is recommended to wait for price corrections to accumulate positions, focusing on assets with genuine demand support [5]. - Copper investments should be considered once economic data and Federal Reserve policies confirm the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, as copper is closely tied to economic recovery [5]. - The current market volatility presents an opportunity to identify quality assets, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and supply-demand relationships [5].