对于铜价走势，国投期货表示，特朗普访华前，倾向对中国关税态度相对缓和，需求端主要关注关税相 对低执行期，对国内出口的影响。节后首周，内外铜库存延续增量势头，国内SMM社库增至53.17万 吨，伦铜新奥尔良仓库持续入库。SMM现铜昨报101795元，上海贴水235元。市场仍可能权衡节后旺季 消费强度，但当下全球交易所铜显性库存高。 （文华综合） 最近宏观面不确定性仍强，美国关税政策和美伊局势变化仍待进一步明朗，AI恐慌仍未完全消弭，隔 夜美国纳斯达克指数出现大幅下跌，一度压制市场情绪，但日内期市氛围转暖，且国内政策面偏暖，铜 价仍然偏强运行。 本周LME铜库存累积态势延续，最新库存升至25.36万吨。2月26日国内市场电解铜现货库存53.61万 吨，较24增2.90万吨。周内在途国产货源仍继续到货入库，且下游企业复工复产节奏缓慢，市场需求仍 较为有限，整体库存因此继续增加。节后首周，国内需求恢复仍然偏慢，社库继续累积，后续仍需跟踪 下游复工速度。 沪铜早间弱势运行，午后行情明显回暖，收盘上涨1.19%。全球铜显性库存继续增加，不过期市氛围转 暖，国内政策面吹来暖风，铜价走势偏强。 ...

截止收盘，伦铜报13259美元跌90.5美元，跌幅0.68%，伦铝报3141.5美元跌33美元，跌幅1.04%；伦锌 报3366.5美元跌20.5美元，跌幅0.61%；伦铅报1979美元跌16.5美元，跌幅0.83%；伦锡报543855美元涨 470美元，涨幅0.87%；伦镍报17730美元跌315美元，跌幅1.75%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网2月27日早讯：周四晚间LME金属期货普遍下跌，伦锡表现坚挺创下五连涨。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a general decline, with the exception of tin, which saw an increase in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper closed at $12,901, down $99, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - LME aluminum closed at $3,091, down $14.5, a decrease of 0.47% [1] - LME zinc closed at $3,345.5, down $32.5, a decrease of 0.96% [1] - LME lead closed at $1,952, down $14.5, a decrease of 0.74% [1] - LME tin closed at $47,370, up $630, an increase of 1.35% [1] - LME nickel closed at $17,285, down $150, a decrease of 0.86% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a widespread decline, with nickel and tin leading the drop, and copper reaching a one-week low [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $12,855.5, down $383.5, a decrease of 2.90% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,097.5, down $19.5, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,381.5, down $36.5, a decrease of 1.07% [1] - London lead closed at $1,984, down $10.5, a decrease of 0.53% [1] - London tin closed at $47,800, down $2,265, a decrease of 4.52% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,250, down $815, a decrease of 4.51% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a broad increase, with nickel leading the gains, reaching a nearly two-week high, and lead rising for four consecutive days [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,239, up $139, a rise of 1.06% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,117, increasing by $12, reflecting a 0.39% gain [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,418, up $20, marking a 0.59% increase [1] - Lead reached $1,994.5, gaining $17, which is an increase of 0.86% [1] - Tin was reported at $50,065, up $835, showing a rise of 1.70% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,065, increasing by $515, a rise of 2.93% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with nickel experiencing a three-day rise while other metals fluctuated in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,100, down $85, a decrease of 0.64% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,105, down $25, a decline of 0.80% [1] - Zinc increased to $3,398, up $16, an increase of 0.47% [1] - Lead rose to $1,977.5, up $3, a rise of 0.15% [1] - Tin was reported at $49,230, down $585, a decrease of 1.17% [1] - Nickel closed at $17,550, up $140, an increase of 0.80% [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in oil prices is attributed to renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. advising commercial ships to avoid Iranian waters, which reinstates risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for one-third of the world's oil [3] - Gold prices have surpassed the $5000 mark, driven by bottom-fishing capital entering the market after previous volatility, but the sustainability of this level is crucial, as false breakouts can mislead investors [3][4] - Base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel have also seen price increases, but their movements are influenced by macroeconomic demand and industrial recovery, differing from the geopolitical and safe-haven dynamics affecting oil and gold [3][4] Group 2 - Long-term investment in commodities should not be swayed by daily price fluctuations; instead, it is essential to focus on underlying logic and key support levels [4] - Current signals indicate that oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical risk premiums, gold is stabilizing around the $5000 mark due to bottom-fishing, and base metals are strengthening with improving macroeconomic sentiment, each with distinct underlying factors [4] - Investors are advised to avoid impulsive actions such as blindly increasing positions; instead, they should monitor the effectiveness of support levels for gold, the continuity of geopolitical news for oil, and clear demand signals for base metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a general increase, with tin leading the gains on the evening of February 10, as reported by Changjiang Nonferrous Network [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $13,185, up $125, a rise of 0.96% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,130, up $20, a rise of 0.64% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,382, down $1, a decrease of 0.03% [1] - London lead closed at $1,974.5, up $9, a rise of 0.46% [1] - London tin closed at $49,815, up $2,660, a rise of 5.64% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,410, up $175, a rise of 1.02% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market's confidence in the Fed has strengthened after the nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman, leading to a change in expectations for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US dollar has risen, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The copper price oscillated downward last week but stopped falling and stabilized after the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system. In the short term, there is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, the copper price is optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Wash's nomination as Fed Chairman has boosted the confidence in the US dollar due to the expectation of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022. The January ADP new employment was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating weak labor market momentum. Non - farm employment data will be released this week, and Wash's interest rate cut path needs to be monitored [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In January, the copper production was 15,700 tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials. As the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, downstream industries entered the holiday mode, and procurement decreased [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper oscillated weakly, with a weekly high of 105,810 yuan/ton, a low of 97,920 yuan/ton, a weekly amplitude of 7.61%, and a range change of - 3.45% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of February 9, the average spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 115 yuan/ton. As the copper price corrected, downstream procurement sentiment increased, and the spot discount narrowed [11]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of February 6, the LME copper price fell 4.02% during the week, closing at $12,900/ton, with a spot premium of - $60/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [20]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year, and the operating rate will continue to decline this week, with little market trading [25]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of February 6, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $51.23/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will promote copper smelting capacity governance. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply In January, the electrolytic copper output was 15,700 tons more than expected and is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [38]. 3.10 Downstream Consumption - **Copper rod**: According to Mysteel's survey of 57 domestic refined copper rod sample enterprises, the capacity utilization rate in January was 54.44%, a 3.35% month - on - month and 5.93% year - on - year increase. In February, it was 34.62%, a 19.82% month - on - month and 17.76% year - on - year decrease. Some copper tube enterprises will stop production this weekend [42]. - **Power grid**: As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a 16.1% year - on - year increase. The solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a 35.4% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, a 22.9% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts were 3,119 hours, 312 hours less than the previous year [47]. - **Real estate**: In December, the sales area of new commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease. The sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [53]. - **Automobile**: In January 2026, the estimated wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. From January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax was changed from exemption to half - collection. The "trade - in" subsidy for heavy trucks and buses continued, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy [59]. 3.11 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 4.74% increase), and was 26.48% lower year - on - year. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 tons, a 1.97% week - on - week increase and 488.28% higher year - on - year. - On February 5, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 120,600 tons, still increasing during the week. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease, and the cathode copper inventory was 248,900 tons, a 6.83% week - on - week increase [64][69].