南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 报道 美国东部时间10月10日，美股迎来"黑色星期五"，投资者再度经历了类似4月的暴跌，"避险之王"黄金 大涨。 截至10日收盘，标普500指数跌2.71%，报6552.51点，创4月以来最大单日跌幅；纳斯达克综合指数跌 3.56%，报22204.43点，亦创4月以来最大单日跌幅；道琼斯工业平均指数跌1.90%，报45479.60点。 需要警惕的是，盘后美国科技巨头又迎来新一轮跳水，英伟达、特斯拉、甲骨文一度跌超2%，新思科 技、Cadence跌超3%。 最新的Markets Pulse调查显示，关于美国企业在人工智能上的投入是否物有所值的疑虑正在升温。在9 月29日至10月8日进行的共有149名参与者的调查中，超过三分之二的人认为，由人工智能推动的企业业 绩表现优异这一趋势将会持续。然而，大约同样多的受访者表示，企业在人工智能上的花费与其回报并 不相称。 展望未来，Wells Fargo Investment Institute高级全球市场策略师Scott Wren分析称，在未来几年里，需要 将人工智能投资货币化的不只是少数几家超大市值公司。对许多公司而言，目前人工智能还 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 报道 全球市场避险情绪飙升 财报季成关键 美股财报季将于下周正式拉开大幕，花旗集团、摩根大通等多家银行将公布第三季度业绩。 随着市场风险偏好突然降温，商品市场大跌，WTI原油大跌超4%，迫近年内低点，伦铜亦大跌逾4%。 投资者纷纷涌向国债和黄金等避险资产，现货黄金再度突破4000美元/盎司关口，10年期美债收益率下 行近8个基点。 除了最新贸易消息，美国政府停摆博弈也愈演愈烈。据央视新闻报道，美国联邦政府"停摆"10月10日进 入第十天。白宫管理和预算办公室主任沃特在社交媒体上宣布，联邦政府裁员已经开始。美国总统特朗 普和白宫官员先前多次表示，联邦政府一旦"停摆"就会裁员，并称民主党人应对此负责。民主党领导人 则认为，共和党人试图在这场预算争端中把联邦雇员当作棋子，并称这是一种恐吓和威胁手段。 盈透证券首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克分析称，最新消息显然并非交易员乐见，市场反应既体现了政策 影响，也暴露出近期投资者的盲目乐观情绪。 对于后市走向，机构仍充满分歧。J Safra Sarasin股票策略师Wolf von Rotberg指出，以预估市盈率衡 量，标普500指数目前的估 ...

盈透证券首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克解读称，"这显然不是交易员们希望听到的消息，市场反应既体现了政策影响，也暴露出近期投资 者的盲目乐观情绪。" 令市场情绪雪上加霜的是，美国白宫管理和预算办公室主任罗素·沃特在社交平台上表示，随着美国政府"停摆"进入第10天，联邦政府雇 员裁减程序已正式启动。 原油、有色金属同步遭受重创，投资者纷纷涌向国债和黄金等避险资产。WTI原油暴跌超4%，迫近年内低点。伦铜也在周五下跌4.5%。 现货黄金再度站上每盎司4000美元关口，十年期美债收益率跌近8个基点。 不间断交易的比特币则持续巨震，日内跌幅一度超过10%。 同时由于美股市场自4月以来的连番上涨，市场原本就有回调休整的预期。所以有不少分析师指出，根据最新事态的后续进展，美股存 在实质性调整的风险。 纽约股市三大股指10日大幅下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌878．82点，收于45479．60点，跌幅为1．90％； 标准普尔500种股票指数下跌182．60点，收于6552．51点，跌幅为2．71％。创4月以来最大单日跌幅； 纳斯达克综合指数下跌820．20点，收于22204．43点，跌幅为3．56％。创 ...

LME伦铜涨幅扩大，现涨3.0%，最新报10989.0美元/吨。 ...

全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软着陆走向温和过热的概率加大。 国庆假期，海外市场由美国政府停摆和日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁两大事件主导。联邦政府停摆期间，避险情绪升温，非农就业等重要经济数据暂停发 布，市场交易"没消息就是没消息"，对美联储"盲降利率"的预期升温，叠加高市早苗胜选带来的日本"宽财政+宽货币"预期，共同带动黄金和比特币续创历 史新高。 向前看，全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软着陆走向温和过热的概率加 大。 海外经济 美国ADP就业再度负增长，ISM制造业和服务业指数表现分化。因美国联邦政府自10月1日起停摆，一些政府机构发布的美国经济数据暂停发布，迄今已受 到影响的数据包括9月美国非农就业、首申失业金、8月工厂订单、建筑开支等数据，而美联储、私营部门发布的数据不受影响。 国庆假期前后，美国公布的职位空缺、ADP就业数据以及PMI、消费者信心等景气数据喜忧参半。 景气指数方面，9月美国ISM制造业和服务业PMI分化：ISM制造业PMI改善至49.1，预期49， ...

Q&A 国庆假期海外市场三件事 20251007 摘要 黄金价格突破 3,900 美元，白银创 14 年新高，反映了市场对避险资产 的需求增加，以及对潜在经济风险的担忧，可能预示着投资者风险偏好 的降低。 美国政府停摆可能导致 CPI 数据延迟发布，使美联储在 10 月 FOMC 会 议前缺乏数据支持，或迫使其在信息不足的情况下做出降息决策，增加 政策不确定性。 Revenal lab 测算非农初值高于市场预期，但 ADP 数据表现疲软，未来 非农数据修正情况值得关注，可能影响市场对美国劳动力市场健康状况 的评估。 特朗普政府可能借停摆进一步裁员，加剧劳动力市场压力，并可能引发 对美元信用的担忧，但历史数据显示政府停摆对 GDP 的实际影响可能有 限。 Polly Market 预测美国政府关门持续至 10 月 15 日的概率较高，两党 僵持可能强化经济下行风险，并加剧对美元信用的担忧，增加市场避险 情绪。 高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁，其"早苗经济学"延续安倍经济学，主 张宽财政、宽货币和结构改革，可能导致日元贬值和日本长债利率上升。 高市早苗的政策可能增加地缘政治不确定性，并增强全球债务不可持续 性，各国央 ...

Core Viewpoint - London copper prices have reached a new high since May 2024, surpassing $10,500 per ton, with an intraday increase of over 1% [1] Group 1 - London copper prices have broken the $10,500 per ton mark, indicating strong market demand and potential bullish trends in the copper industry [1] - The price increase reflects a significant recovery in the copper market, which may influence investment strategies and market forecasts [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：瑞达期货研究院） 瑞达期货研究院 作为一名资深期货分析师，我深知长假前后市场的不确定性如同暗礁，看似平静的盘面下往往潜藏着巨 大波动。不少散户对于国庆、五一、春节长假假期的外盘变动风险预知不足、了解不多，不够重视，结 果多是留下 深刻教训，悔之晚矣。以2023年国庆为例，外盘布伦特原油单周跌幅超过9%，美债收益率 飙升19个基点至4.78%，而伦铜却逆势上涨3.11%。这种分化并非偶然，过去十年数据显示，约70%的农 产品和黑色系品种在节后首周波动率超过平日2倍，其中油脂、能源及有色品种尤为敏感。本文将结合 十年历史规律与当前波动率数据，尝试为打算过节持仓的投资者提供一份较为系统的风控框架。 一、十年回顾：长假波动的内在逻辑与品种表现 从宏观视角看，长假期间外盘波动主要围绕三大主线展开：一是美联储政策预期变化引发的利率与汇率 重定价（如2023年国庆期间美债收益率突破4.78%创2007年以来新高）；二是地缘冲突与供需事件冲击 （如2017年国庆期间伦铜库存下降推动价格大涨3.11%）；三是国内政策预期与现货市场流动性断层共 振（如2023年节后地产销售同比下滑42.8%但旅游收入超2 ...

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations this week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain strengthened significantly, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 6.47%, driven by increased capital expenditure in the AI sector and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, with indices in social services, retail, light industry, and textiles showing the largest declines. Market turnover decreased marginally, with net inflows of financing funds maintained, and stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 231 billion yuan this week. In the commodity market, internationally priced commodities strengthened, while domestically priced black commodities declined. The dollar index rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a "slow bull" market continuing. After a trend-driven rise in July and August, funding divergence has increased since September. With the upcoming long holiday, external funds entering the market may slow down, leading to potential short-term adjustments in both markets. However, the current bull market is still in play, supported by ample micro liquidity, policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, and long-term capital inflows. Despite weak economic data, the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, leading to marginal improvements in long-term profit expectations for A-shares. Key areas of focus include: - The technology sector remains the main focus, with both "prosperity investment" and "thematic investment" expected to coexist in October. Internal rotation within growth sectors is anticipated to accelerate, particularly in AI downstream applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Attention should also be given to non-tech sectors showing positive trends, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery [2][3]. International Perspective - On the international front, the Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts have been implemented, but there is increasing divergence regarding future rate cut paths. In September, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with projections indicating a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year. However, there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding future cuts, with 9 out of 19 officials expecting two more cuts in 2025, while others foresee no further reductions. Current U.S. economic data remains resilient, and Fed Chair Powell's cautious signals regarding rate cuts suggest a potentially complicated path ahead [3]. Supply-Side Policies - The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies is gradually becoming evident, with industrial profits rebounding in August. Year-on-year growth in industrial profits for August was 20.4%, improving from a -1.7% decline in July to a cumulative growth of 0.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -2.9% year-on-year, marking the first contraction since March. This improvement is attributed to a low base effect and the gradual impact of supply-side policies, which have led to price increases in upstream commodities. The central bank has emphasized the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, with recent policies aimed at boosting prices being implemented [3]. Structural Trends - In terms of structure, the technology sector is experiencing numerous catalysts, with high growth expectations for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors. The new wave of technological advancements driven by AI is accelerating across various fields. Key factors include the increasing clarity of domestic and international AI industry trends, rapid growth in the performance of leading companies, and a focus on hard technology and new production capabilities in upcoming policy meetings. Market consensus on profit expectations indicates high growth for growth sectors in 2025, including military electronics, software development, IT services, optical electronics, gaming, new energy, semiconductors, and communication equipment [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity situation in the A-share market remains ample. In August, non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year, and the M1-M2 negative differential continues to narrow, reflecting a positive impact on residents' risk appetite. Unlike the previous "structural bull" market from 2019 to 2021, where residents favored active funds, this bull market sees a preference for passive investment products. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net asset value of stock ETFs has rapidly expanded, with index funds consistently outpacing active equity funds for three consecutive quarters, further promoting the trend towards indexation in the industry. The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with funding rates trending downward and bank wealth management products yielding historically low returns, suggesting that micro liquidity in the A-share market is likely to remain ample in the fourth quarter [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].