Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index Futures, Polysilicon [1] - Bearish: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel [1] - Volatile: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - The market's reaction to negative news in the stock index has become dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased, and short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to various factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainties [1]. - Copper prices may fall due to US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to weaken due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory accumulation [1]. - Alumina prices have stabilized and rebounded due to supply - side reform expectations [1]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. - Nickel prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1]. - Tin prices have short - term support but may decline in the long term [1]. - The prices of various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or fluctuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Index Futures: The market's reaction to negative news is dull, trading volume and sentiment are strong. With the "asset shell" situation and "national team" support, the market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased. Short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Market uncertainties exist, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] - Silver: The strengthening of the US dollar may suppress silver prices, and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation may lead to a decline in copper prices [1] - Aluminum: High prices suppress demand, inventory accumulates, and aluminum prices are expected to weaken [1] - Alumina: Supply - side reform expectations have led to price stabilization and rebound [1] - Zinc: Prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1] - Nickel: Prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices are volatile, and short - selling hedging and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin: Short - term support exists, but prices may decline in the long term [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand factors co - exist, and the market has high sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand factors lead to price fluctuations [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Supported by strong furnace materials, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is good, but fundamentals are weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Glass: Short - term support exists, but medium - term over - supply may limit price increases [1] - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to market expectations, short - selling should be avoided in the short term, and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: MPOB monthly report is neutral to bearish, and wait for a callback to buy the 01 contract [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The entry of Australian rapeseed may have a negative impact on prices in the short term [1] - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and price trends are affected by factors such as crude oil prices [1] - Corn: CO9 is expected to fluctuate, and C01 is recommended to short at high prices [1] - Soybean Meal: MO1 is supported, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production, and seasonal consumption, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - HK: Downstream demand is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is increasing slightly [1] - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are under pressure, but there is some support from device maintenance [1] - PTA: Supply has shrunk, but crude oil is strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and market supply is becoming more abundant [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Coal prices have risen slightly, and there are factors of supply increase and decrease [1] - Short Fiber: Warehouse receipt registration is low, and cost follows closely [1] - Styrene: Device load has increased, and the basis has weakened [1] - PE: Macro - sentiment has subsided, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - PVC: Affected by factors such as coking coal prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Chlor - Alkali: Maintenance is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine [1] - LPG: Affected by factors such as crude oil prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: The freight rate is expected to show an arc - top trend, and the peak time is advanced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing slight declines, while domestic copper is showing narrow fluctuations. Positive economic data from China is boosting demand expectations, leading institutions to suggest that the domestic copper market is stabilizing and awaiting new drivers for growth [1]. Group 1 - London copper prices have decreased slightly [1] - Domestic copper is experiencing narrow fluctuations [1] - Positive economic data from China is enhancing demand expectations [1] Group 2 - Institutions indicate that the domestic copper market is stabilizing [1] - The market is anticipated to await new drivers for growth in the short term [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the long term, short - term upside limited [1] - Gold: Sideways in the short term, risk of pull - back after rally [1] - Copper: Bearish [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term bearish due to surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, short - term trading, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of price decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to surplus [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways, avoid shorting in the short term, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Coke: Sideways, look for selling - hedging opportunities when futures are at a premium [1] - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Logs: Sideways [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Fuel Oil: Bullish in the short term due to consumption and supply factors [1] - Asphalt: Volatile due to cost and demand factors [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways with some support [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - PE: Sideways to bullish [1] - PP: Sideways to bullish [1] - PVC: Sideways to bullish [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1] - LPG: Sideways to bearish [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, expected price peak in mid - July [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be bullish in the short term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank limit upside [1] - Gold prices will mainly fluctuate due to market uncertainties [1] - Copper prices face a risk of catch - up decline due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum prices will move sideways to bearishly due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina prices will stabilize and rise due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc prices are under pressure, and shorting opportunities should be watched [1] - Nickel prices will move sideways, with short - term shorting opportunities and long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless steel futures will move sideways, and cash - and - carry opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but face a risk of decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon is bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium carbonate prices will move sideways [1] - Iron ore has good market sentiment but weakening fundamentals [1] - Black metals are bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking coal and coke should focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Palm oil should look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Cotton prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production should be watched [1] - Corn prices will move sideways, and shorting opportunities for the 001 contract should be watched [1] - Soybean meal prices will move sideways, and buying opportunities on dips should be considered [1] - Pulp should not be chased higher [1] - Live pig futures are stable [1] - Fuel oil and asphalt prices are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Chemical product prices are affected by supply, demand, cost, and other factors, showing different trends [1] - Container shipping to Europe is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation, with an expected price peak in mid - July [1] Summary by Category Index - Short - term bullish trend due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] Treasury Bonds - Bullish in the long term due to asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upside limited by central bank - hinted interest rate risks [1] Gold - Sideways in the short term due to market uncertainties, risk of pull - back after rally [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Bearish due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities due to inventory build - up pressure [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, focus on cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of decline in the long term [1] Energy and Chemicals - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - Chemical Products: Different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, etc [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase in Brazil [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for the 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] Others - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Stable reality and weak expectation, expected price peak in mid - July [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers trend judgments for various products in different sectors: - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern; Treasury bond futures may face limited upside due to the central bank's interest - rate risk warning; Gold and silver prices are likely to oscillate; Copper prices are bearish; Aluminum prices are likely to oscillate strongly; Alumina prices are expected to stabilize and rebound; Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities are recommended; Nickel prices will oscillate, with short - term short - selling suggestions; Stainless steel prices may rebound, but the sustainability needs observation [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Tin prices have limited upward drive in the short term; Industrial silicon prices will oscillate; Polysilicon prices are bullish; Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate [1]. - **Black Metals**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by cost; Iron ore prices will oscillate; Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are under pressure; Coke and coking coal prices have short - term support but face medium - term oversupply; Anthracite prices suggest short - term avoidance of short positions and building long - short hedging positions for industrial customers [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate; Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly; Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production needs attention; Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities for the far - month contract C01 are recommended; Soybean meal prices may have different trends depending on trade policies; Pulp prices are currently over - valued with macro - level positives; Log prices are bearish; Live pig futures are stable; Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by supply and demand, with short - term support from consumption; Asphalt prices will oscillate; Natural rubber prices are bearish; BR rubber prices have some support and speculation; PTA prices are affected by various factors; Ethylene glycol prices are expected to reach a certain level; Short - fiber prices are affected by cost and production; Styrene prices are affected by raw material and production factors [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Urea prices will oscillate; PE and PP prices are likely to oscillate strongly; PVC prices will oscillate strongly; Chlor - alkali prices are affected by various factors; LPG prices will oscillate [1]. - **Other**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line is expected to form an arc - top shape, with the peak time advancing [1]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the trends of different products in multiple sectors based on various factors such as market supply and demand, policy changes, international trade policies, and geopolitical situations. It provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product, highlighting the importance of considering both short - term and long - term factors in investment decisions [1]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term domestic and international positive factors are limited, but market sentiment and liquidity are acceptable, so the index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Market uncertainties remain, so gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices may decline due to potential US tariffs; Aluminum prices are supported by alumina but face high - price demand suppression; Alumina prices are expected to rise due to supply - side reform expectations; Zinc prices are under pressure from tariffs and inventory accumulation; Nickel prices will oscillate, affected by supply and macro factors; Stainless steel prices may rebound, but the sustainability needs to be observed [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Tin**: Short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upward drive [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south, and demand has marginal growth but a potential decline in the future, with high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has no reduction, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital game, so prices will oscillate [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by strong furnace materials; Iron ore prices have a positive commodity sentiment but a weakening fundamental situation; Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by supply - demand and cost factors; Coke and coking coal prices have short - term support but face medium - term oversupply; Anthracite prices suggest short - term avoidance of short positions and building long - short hedging positions for industrial customers [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate due to different factors such as monthly reports and lack of drivers [1]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to trade negotiations, weather, and consumption season factors [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production needs attention [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - related grain supply and price differentials have a negative impact, and far - month contract short - selling opportunities are recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price trend depends on Sino - US trade policies [1]. - **Pulp**: The price is currently over - valued, but there are macro - level positives [1]. - **Log**: The price is bearish due to the off - season and limited supply reduction [1]. - **Live Pig**: Futures prices are stable due to存栏 and出栏 factors [1]. - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Prices are affected by supply and demand, with short - term support from consumption [1]. - **Asphalt**: Prices will oscillate due to cost and demand factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are bearish due to weakening demand, increased supply, and inventory increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Prices have some support and speculation [1]. - **PTA**: Prices are affected by factors such as basis, crude oil, and polyester downstream load [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices are expected to reach a certain level due to coal prices, arrival volume, and polyester procurement [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are affected by cost and production factors [1]. - **Styrene**: Prices are affected by raw material and production factors [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices will oscillate due to domestic demand and export expectations [1]. - **PE and PP**: Prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to macro - sentiment, maintenance, and demand factors [1]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate strongly due to factors such as coal prices, maintenance, and seasonal demand [1]. - **Chlor - alkali**: Prices are affected by various factors such as coal prices, arrival volume, and profit [1]. - **LPG**: Prices will oscillate due to spot market, crude oil support, and seasonal demand factors [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to form an arc - top shape, with the peak time advancing and sufficient subsequent capacity deployment [1].