研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 行业 油脂 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华南菜油：6-9 月三菜 09+250、一菜 09+450。华东市场豆油基差价格：一豆： 现货：Y05+350；远月价格：05+350（3 月）；05+230（5-7）；09+260（6 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Soybean oil [1] - Report cycle: Weekly report [1] - Written date: January 30, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The DCE soybean oil main contract (Y2605) showed a trend of "four consecutive rises and then a callback" this week, reaching a weekly high of 8,410 yuan/ton and finally closing at 8,282 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.35% [2] - The expectation of the US biodiesel policy implementation and domestic inventory depletion provided main supports. However, on Friday, affected by foreign fund selling and weakening demand at the end of the Spring Festival stocking, the futures price dropped from a high level, and the trading volume significantly increased, indicating intensified divergence between bulls and bears [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The weekly basis fluctuated in the range of 452 - 494 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 5.19% - 5.60%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same historical period, reflecting that the tight spot supply pattern remained unchanged [3][5] - On January 30, the spot price was 8,680 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day), the basis was 488 yuan/ton, and the linkage between spot and futures strengthened [5] Group 4: Influencing Factors - Industry News - Inventory continued the depletion trend: The national port soybean oil inventory dropped to 892,000 tons on January 27, a 18.6% week - on - week decrease from 1.0963 million tons on January 23, with seven consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [6] - The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 26,525 lots to 25,960 lots, and the reduction of deliverable goods further supported the basis [6] - Pressure emerged on the supply side: The oil mill operating rate remained at a high level (about 62.38% on January 30), last week's soybean crushing volume was 2.09 million tons (a week - on - week increase of 170,000 tons), and the incremental soybean oil supply was gradually released, which might suppress the subsequent inventory depletion speed [6] Group 5: Influencing Factors - Technical Analysis - Price pattern: It showed a pattern of "step - by - step increase + single - day callback" this week. In the first four trading days, it steadily rose along the 5 - day moving average, and on Friday, it broke below the 5 - day moving average (8,310 yuan/ton), forming a negative line with a long upper shadow, indicating significant pressure near 8,400 yuan/ton [7] - Support and pressure: The 8,300 - 8,350 yuan/ton range was a short - term strong pressure zone (tested multiple times but not broken on January 28 - 29), and the 8,200 - 8,250 yuan/ton range was a key support (the Friday low of 8,224 yuan/ton was close to the lower limit of this range) [7] - Volume - price cooperation: The trading volume moderately increased during the rising stage (384,400 lots on January 27), and suddenly increased to 389,700 lots on the callback day. The volume - price divergence implied short - term adjustment demand [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Policy and inventory are still the core drivers. The implementation rhythm of the US biodiesel policy and the domestic inventory depletion speed will dominate the short - term trend. If the policy exceeds expectations or the inventory continues to decline, the futures price is expected to resume an upward trend; otherwise, the expectation of a bumper harvest and weakening demand may intensify the callback [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international crude oil prices, weakening support for vegetable oils. Coupled with profit - taking by funds after the previous sharp rise, the risk of a short - term high - level correction in domestic oils has increased. However, the strong fundamentals of soybean and palm oils remain unchanged, so the correction range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long. Among them, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively stronger, while rapeseed oil will be relatively weaker [1][19]. - In the long - term, after the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of domestic and international oils will gradually ease, leading to a correction in domestic oils. But with the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and positive macro - situation, along with potential positive factors such as Indonesia's production reduction risk and the US biodiesel policy, the general direction of oils is upward. After the correction caused by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, a bullish approach should still be taken [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Short - term: The strong fundamentals of palm oil will last until February, and with the spill - over effect of US biodiesel policies, the correction range of spot and futures prices is limited. After the emotional decline, there is still upward momentum. However, the relatively high inventory levels in Malaysia and China will limit its further upward space. For example, in January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased while exports increased, and the inventory is expected to decline further in February [5]. - Long - term: Starting from March, Malaysian palm oil production may rebound, while consumption demand will weaken, which may lead to a price correction. But considering the positive domestic macro - situation in 2026, low inventory and potential production reduction in Indonesia, and the possibility of implementing the B50 biodiesel plan, the correction range is expected to be limited, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [6]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Similar to palm oil, soybean oil is supported by both domestic and foreign positive factors, and the correction is expected to be limited. Positive factors include strong US soybean demand, potential US biodiesel policies, the early - stage harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the drought in Argentina. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the risk of the US biodiesel policy falling short of expectations will limit its upward space [12]. - Long - term: After the Spring Festival, the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of domestic soybean supply - demand will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean oil prices. In the third quarter, soybean oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention on the purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans, the sowing and growth of US new - crop soybeans, and the progress of biodiesel policies [13]. Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Although the current spot supply - demand of domestic rapeseed oil is still tight, after the China - Canada negotiation, there is news that China has increased the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the first batch of Australian rapeseed has been processed. The supply - demand tension is expected to ease marginally, making its fundamentals weaker than those of soybean and palm oils. The price trend will follow the latter two, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US relations [15][16]. - Long - term: In the 25/26 season, global rapeseed production (except in Ukraine) has increased year - on - year, with general demand, showing a clear pattern of looser supply - demand. In China, due to the improvement of China - Canada and China - Australia relations, the supply - demand of rapeseed is expected to continue to ease, and the price of far - month rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [17].

去年12月下旬以来，豆油期价持续上涨，并创下逾一年来新高。 市场人士普遍认为，本轮豆油期价强势上涨是多重因素共振的结果。 "美国生物柴油政策预期回升与国际原油价格上涨，共同推动全球油脂价格普涨。"中州期货农产品分析 师吴晓杰表示，美国EPA拟提高2026年生物质柴油配额，并调整豁免比例。此消息推动CBOT豆油价格 走高，并传导至国内。此外，地缘局势紧张推动原油走强，进一步为油脂板块走高提供了支撑。 山东齐盛期货油脂油料分析师刘瑞杰则认为，棕榈油价格走强，导致豆棕价差扩大，从而驱动豆油期价 上涨。 刘瑞杰表示，国内豆油表观需求持续高位，去年四季度以来持续去库，预计库存低点可能出现在3—4月 份。 吴晓杰补充道，受国内春节前备货需求影响，部分油厂提货已排队至下月初，导致商业库存较前月下降 约15%。同时，菜油因进口受限持续去库，豆棕价差倒挂也促使市场需求向豆油倾斜，共同助推豆油价 格走强。 豆油不仅需求端有支撑，供应端也很乐观。徽商期货油脂油料分析师郭文伟告诉记者，预计2025/2026 年度巴西大豆丰产1.76亿~1.81亿吨。国内缺豆担忧或被高估。虽然一季度大豆到港量减少，但国家通 过拍卖储备大豆，成交超20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic油脂 market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver lies in the overseas market. The market will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, waiting for the impact of US energy policies, Malaysia's inventory reduction progress, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, the short - term trading should be treated within a range. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in 2026 is earlier, the pressure on palm oil producing areas will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We should wait to see if it can start an upward trend after inventory reduction [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions in the油脂 market mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down inventory reduction. Indonesia's B50 plan has no new news and is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which supports long - term palm oil demand but has limited short - term benefits [1] - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain, providing limited support to the market [1] - The result of the China - Canada negotiation is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1] - The overall supply of the three major domestic油脂 remains sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of inventory reduction with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in detail in the report 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term range - bound oscillation, and there is still upward space for palm oil in the medium term. The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8800], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [18] - Technical analysis: Unilateral trading oscillates within the range. For arbitrage, we can observe the weakening trend of the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The current basis should be treated with a short - term weak - oscillation mindset. There is no month - spread strategy for now. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil should be treated as weakening [18] - A series of historical strategy recommendations are listed, including stop - loss exits, profit - taking exits, and waiting for appropriate opportunities [18] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: The latest prices of palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8342 yuan/ton, 8488 yuan/ton, and 8376 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of 1.42%, 1.12%, and 1.02%. The price of BMD palm oil main contract is 4000 ringgit/ton, down 0.35% [20] - Soybean oil: The latest prices of soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8140 yuan/ton, 7912 yuan/ton, and 7774 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.99%, 0.8%, and 0.56%. The price of CBOT soybean oil main contract is 49.85 cents/pound, up 1.07% [20] - Rapeseed oil: The latest prices of rapeseed oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 9736 yuan/ton, 9044 yuan/ton, and 9009 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price of ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is 613.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.8 [20] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic油脂 decreased slightly to 2110000 tons, with a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 250000 tons, and an increase of 190000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1089000 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.07%. From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 239675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period last month [22][23] - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean export volume in 2025 reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase compared with 2024. Its soybean meal and corn export volumes also reached record levels. In December 2025, the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and the import volume of soybeans in January is expected to decrease, with the crushing volume expected to drop slightly to about 8 million tons. India's palm oil import volume in December decreased by 20% month - on - month to 507000 metric tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Due to the increase in soybean oil and sunflower oil imports, India's total edible oil import volume increased by 19% month - on - month, reaching a three - month high of 1.37 million tons. The market generally expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 to continue to accumulate, with Reuters expecting 2.97 million tons (a 4.7% month - on - month increase) and Bloomberg expecting 2.99 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month increase) [24][27] - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent油脂 transactions are average, with relatively high soybean oil transactions and no transactions for rapeseed oil for now [25] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Not provided in detail in the report Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The油脂 market continued its wide - range volatile trend this week. Due to unresolved pressure in producing areas and unclear US biodiesel policies, the global油脂 market demand expansion is limited. We should pay attention to US bio - energy policy information and inventory reduction progress in producing areas [30] - Capital trends: The positions of key profitable seats for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious recently. Foreign investors have insufficient confidence in the油脂 sector. The net short positions of foreign investors and retail investors in palm oil have increased slightly, with prices continuously falling and positions decreasing significantly, but the trend degree has slightly turned positive, and volatility is low, indicating that the market may enter a consolidation stage. Soybean oil prices have stabilized recently after a continuous decline, with positions decreasing, a weak trend but a slowdown in the decline. Foreign investors have increased short positions, and retail investors have slightly increased long positions, and the market maintains a volatile consolidation. Rapeseed oil prices have stabilized at a low level after a continuous decline, with positions dropping to the lowest in two years, continuous capital outflows, and the basis approaching the spot price, indicating that the market may be approaching the bottom area [30] - Basis structure: The main - contract basis of油脂 continued to bottom - out and consolidate this week. Due to high domestic油脂 inventory and average downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [32] - Month - spread structure: The油脂 market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil has become shallower. Weak reality continues to suppress the disk. Due to the lack of information on Indonesia's B50, market sentiment is weak. High soybean oil supply still suppresses prices, and the supply tension of rapeseed oil has gradually improved [32] - Spread structure: Due to the lack of further information this week, cross - variety spreads mainly oscillated. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts inventory reduction, its support has improved. With the continuous supply of rapeseed oil, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is still expected to weaken [53] - **Overseas Market**: The overseas market oscillated this week. The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil has not been relieved, and there is insufficient weather disturbance. Indonesia's B50 lacks new progress, and the quotes in producing areas continue to consolidate. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and US soybeans lack positive driving factors and oscillate weakly. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and US soybean oil continues to oscillate. The cost - effectiveness of international palm oil has not been reflected for now. There is no expectation of a relaxation in China - Canada relations, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed has eased some supply tension. Currently, the positions of CBOT soybean oil managed funds have decreased slightly, with a pessimistic sentiment and insufficient market confidence in a rise. The net positions of producers/ traders/ processors/ users have rebounded, and confidence has increased [56] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - and - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - This week, the POGO spread decreased slightly. Due to the lack of price support for palm oil, the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels has declined. The BOHO spread continued to weaken. Due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel has remained at the lowest level in recent years due to the sufficient global soybean supply [64] 4.2 Import - and - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the prices in producing areas have been consolidating at a low level. The import profit has changed slightly, but the profit range is not large. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the downstream acceptance is average, and the profit still remains negative [67] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. We should pay attention to the production changes in producing areas. Currently, La Niña climate has appeared in producing areas, but the rainfall is limited, and the impact on the main producing areas is temporarily small, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased month - on - month in December, but export boost was insufficient, and the inventory inflection point is difficult to appear for the time being. It is expected that the inventory inflection point may be seen as early as January [69] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. Producing areas have entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell goods during inventory reduction is limited. In addition, palm oil is easy to solidify in winter, and demand is weak. The import profit in China is inverted, and it is expected that the number of orders will be difficult to increase. We should wait for the rebound after the inventory pressure in producing areas is relieved [71] - Soybean oil: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans reaches the seasonal low point, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is relatively large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. We should pay attention to whether there will be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [71] - Rapeseed oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving successively, the quantity is limited, and inventory reduction will continue. However, the global rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the cost price is weak. Coupled with the increased import of Russian rapeseed oil, the supply gap is gradually disappearing. If China - Canada relations improve, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [71] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory of the three major油脂 is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for油脂, the market boost is limited after the festival stocking is over. Due to limited population growth and the diversification and health - orientation of residents' diet structures, the overall terminal demand for油脂 is still relatively weak and may continue to operate steadily and weakly [77]

图为马来西亚棕榈油月度产量 图 为马来西亚棕榈油月度库存 东南亚主产区强降雨影响较为有限 在11月下旬至12月上旬，棕榈油价格出现一波反弹行情，因为11月中旬开始东南亚地区受拉尼娜现象影响出现持续强 降雨并局部爆发洪水。最初强降雨主要出现在中南半岛和菲律宾，随后逐渐南移，11月下旬开始马来半岛和苏门答腊 岛北部降雨量增加并影响到部分油棕树种植园林，从而增强市场看涨预期。 转自：期货日报 自10月上旬见顶回落以来，棕榈油本轮震荡下跌趋势已经持续超过两个月。其间有两波阶段性的反弹，但未能扭转总 体的下跌趋势。 马来西亚季节性减产期晚于往年 棕榈油产量存在明显的季节性特征，主要跟东南亚主产区的旱季和雨季有关。旱季开工率高，产量也高；雨季开工率 低，产量也低。一般来说，每年的3、4月随着旱季的开始，产量逐渐增加，直至8—9月旱季结束，然后雨季开始，产 量逐渐减少，直至次年的2月雨季结束。 今年旱季较往年有所延长，到10月马来西亚棕榈油仍然保持增产态势。马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）月报显示，10月 马来西亚棕榈油产量为204万吨，环比增加11%，同比增加14%；11月马来西亚棕榈油产量才开始回落至193.5万吨， 环比 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 27 - 31, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Reported futures varieties: Soybean meal and soybean oil [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The high inventory and high operation rate of oil mills continuously suppress the spot price, and the poor downstream breeding profit leads to cautious procurement by feed enterprises, resulting in weak demand - side support. However, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal becomes apparent after the price drops to a low level, and the expected monthly decline in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter provides bottom support. [6] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, the operation rate was 59.59%, and the soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons. [6] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in a downward channel, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, M2601 may continue the oscillation and consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2,800 - 3,000. [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, and the capital is relatively bullish. In the short term, M2601 may be in a slightly stronger oscillation phase, with an expected operating range of 2,880 - 3,050. [10] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean meal production, weekly soybean meal inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, soybean meal basis, and oil - meal ratio. [18][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The sufficient arrival of domestic soybeans, high operation of oil mills, and high commercial inventory (although it decreased slightly week - on - week) combined with weak demand, but strong exports and potential benefits from US biodiesel policies make soybean oil relatively strong among oils and fats. [30] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 41,160 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons. [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, the progress of US biodiesel, and the promotion rhythm of Indonesia's B50 policy. [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may be in a range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean oil production, weekly soybean oil inventory, soybean oil basis, soybean oil trading volume, weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. [43][47][50][55][58]

Group 1 - Palm oil prices have been rising continuously, indicating a potential bullish trend in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that if subsequent data continues to be favorable, palm oil prices may challenge the current price range [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Report Team: Five - Minerals Futures Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - U.S. soybeans are under pressure from good weather and potential export impacts of the trade war, but low valuation and biodiesel policy support keep them in a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal has high supply in the short - term, with active downstream pick - up and neutral - high feed enterprise inventory days, but there is uncertainty in forward procurement due to Sino - U.S. tariffs [2][5] Important Information - On Monday, U.S. soybeans fell 2.75%. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped, with the East China price at 2,820 yuan/ton. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.3322 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3517 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days are 7.91 (+0.61) days, and oil mill soybean meal inventory exceeds 800,000 tons and is in an accumulation trend [2] - In the next two weeks, rainfall in U.S. soybean - producing areas is favorable, covering most areas. Brazilian soybean premiums have risen slightly recently, and the overall soybean import cost is stable for now [3] Trading Strategy - Suggest buying soybean meal on dips at the lower end of the cost range, and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end. Wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries [11] Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased. SPPOMA's production estimates show fluctuations. Brazilian soybean sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 have reached certain percentages of expected production. Last week, the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.2544 million tons [7] - On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated. The EPA policy is favorable, but there are still bearish factors in Southeast Asian palm oil production. Pay attention to the U.S. biodiesel policy hearing on July 8 - 9 and production [8] Trading Strategy - View the oil market as range - bound [11] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The domestic sugar price may continue to decline due to low - price and small - quantity July contract delivery of raw sugar, high import profit after the decline of the external market price, and increased Brazilian exports to China in June [14] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The September contract closed at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.26%. Spot prices of various sugar groups decreased. In June, Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar, with an increase to China [13] Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline [14] Group 5: Cotton Core View - Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting area estimate is higher than expected, while in China, Sino - U.S. negotiation expectations support prices, but the strong basis is not conducive to downstream consumption and inventory reduction [17] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate. The September contract closed at 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, with a significant year - on - year decrease [16] Trading Strategy - Focus on the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [17] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The supply of eggs is large, and demand is cautious. The seasonal price increase is delayed, but the market has expectations of a price increase, leading to stagnant chicken culling. In the short - term, peak - season contracts are supported by expectations, while in the medium - term, the focus may return to supply and high premiums [20] Important Information - Most egg prices in the country declined. The main - producing area average price dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.54 yuan/jin. Supply growth is limited, and downstream sales are slow [19] Trading Strategy - Short - term: observe or conduct short - term operations; medium - term: wait for a rebound to short post - festival contracts [20] Group 7: Pigs Core View - Since late June, the spot price of pigs has rebounded, showing seasonal supply reduction. The second - fattening space can support the price, but in the medium - term, there are pressures from post - poned supply and hedging [23] Important Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Recently, the price decline has led to stronger price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the national pig price may stop falling and some areas may see a small increase [22] Trading Strategy - Short - term long positions may still have space, but in the medium - term, consider supply postponement and hedging pressure [23]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].