马棕油价格连续走高，美国生物柴油政策将如何影响市场？分析师指出，若后续数据持续利多，马棕油 价格有望挑战这一区间！ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 农产品早报 2025-07-08 五矿期货农产品团队 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆下跌 2.75%，天气较好及贸易战可能波及出口施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支 撑需求，整体维持区间震荡趋势。周一国内豆粕现货下跌，华东报 2820 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高，豆 粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。 饲料企业库存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天，油厂豆粕库存超 80 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意 贸易战若缓和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。 从业资格号：F0273729 ...

2025.06.30-07.04 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第25周油厂大豆实际压榨量238.42万吨，开机率为 67.02%；大豆库存637.99万吨，较上周增加38.39万吨，增幅6.40%。豆 粕库存50.89万吨，较上周增加9.89万吨，增幅24.12%。当前，进口大豆 到港量维持高位，油厂在供应充足的情况下保持较高的开机率，豆粕产 量随之提升，下游饲料企业采取高头寸滚动补库策略，豆粕延续累库， 供应宽松格局持续。然而巴西大豆升贴水报价走强，叠加中美贸易存在 不确定性。综合来看，豆粕期货延续宽幅震荡运行。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509短期 内维持宽幅震荡，预计运行区间：2900-3120，可考虑区间 操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509或维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

【CBOT大豆、豆油及BMD毛棕榈油行情回顾与棕榈油市场动态分析】CBOT大豆上涨0.5美分，报 1068.25美分/蒲式耳；CBOT豆油上涨0.04美分，报55.4美分/磅；BMD毛棕榈油上涨35令吉，报4101令 吉。>海关数据显示，5月进口18万吨食用棕榈油，1 - 5月累计进口72万吨，较上年同期减少8.4万吨， 同比下降19.6%。>船运调查机构SGS公布，马来西亚6月1 - 15日棕榈油出口量为513213吨，较5月1 - 15 日增加14.3%，其中对中国出口增加0.47万吨至5.42万吨。>马来西亚南部棕果厂商公会数据显示，6月1 - 15日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下降4%，鲜果串单产和出油率均环比下降。>船运调查机构ITS称，印尼 5月棕榈油出口量为198.3万吨，较4月增长43.3%，对中国出口量也有所增加。>6月18日监测数据显示， 印尼与马来西亚毛棕榈油价差为65美元，较上日涨1美元；阿根廷毛豆油与马来西亚24度豆棕油价差为 39美元，较上日跌18美元。>近期市场聚焦中东局势和美国生物柴油政策，CBOT豆油和NYMEX原油上 涨提振BMD棕油走势。马棕上半月产量降、出口增，基本面利好。> ...

CBOT豆油在市场对美国生物柴油政策的炒作情绪下上演"过山车"行情，投机者期货和期权的净多头头 寸已扩大至六个月高点，对油份额的看涨情绪达到了历史新高，这是未来投资机遇还是市场泡沫？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...