Group 1 - Palm oil prices have been rising continuously, indicating a potential bullish trend in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that if subsequent data continues to be favorable, palm oil prices may challenge the current price range [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Report Team: Five - Minerals Futures Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - U.S. soybeans are under pressure from good weather and potential export impacts of the trade war, but low valuation and biodiesel policy support keep them in a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal has high supply in the short - term, with active downstream pick - up and neutral - high feed enterprise inventory days, but there is uncertainty in forward procurement due to Sino - U.S. tariffs [2][5] Important Information - On Monday, U.S. soybeans fell 2.75%. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped, with the East China price at 2,820 yuan/ton. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.3322 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3517 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days are 7.91 (+0.61) days, and oil mill soybean meal inventory exceeds 800,000 tons and is in an accumulation trend [2] - In the next two weeks, rainfall in U.S. soybean - producing areas is favorable, covering most areas. Brazilian soybean premiums have risen slightly recently, and the overall soybean import cost is stable for now [3] Trading Strategy - Suggest buying soybean meal on dips at the lower end of the cost range, and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end. Wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries [11] Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased. SPPOMA's production estimates show fluctuations. Brazilian soybean sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 have reached certain percentages of expected production. Last week, the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.2544 million tons [7] - On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated. The EPA policy is favorable, but there are still bearish factors in Southeast Asian palm oil production. Pay attention to the U.S. biodiesel policy hearing on July 8 - 9 and production [8] Trading Strategy - View the oil market as range - bound [11] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The domestic sugar price may continue to decline due to low - price and small - quantity July contract delivery of raw sugar, high import profit after the decline of the external market price, and increased Brazilian exports to China in June [14] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The September contract closed at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.26%. Spot prices of various sugar groups decreased. In June, Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar, with an increase to China [13] Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline [14] Group 5: Cotton Core View - Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting area estimate is higher than expected, while in China, Sino - U.S. negotiation expectations support prices, but the strong basis is not conducive to downstream consumption and inventory reduction [17] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate. The September contract closed at 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, with a significant year - on - year decrease [16] Trading Strategy - Focus on the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [17] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The supply of eggs is large, and demand is cautious. The seasonal price increase is delayed, but the market has expectations of a price increase, leading to stagnant chicken culling. In the short - term, peak - season contracts are supported by expectations, while in the medium - term, the focus may return to supply and high premiums [20] Important Information - Most egg prices in the country declined. The main - producing area average price dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.54 yuan/jin. Supply growth is limited, and downstream sales are slow [19] Trading Strategy - Short - term: observe or conduct short - term operations; medium - term: wait for a rebound to short post - festival contracts [20] Group 7: Pigs Core View - Since late June, the spot price of pigs has rebounded, showing seasonal supply reduction. The second - fattening space can support the price, but in the medium - term, there are pressures from post - poned supply and hedging [23] Important Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Recently, the price decline has led to stronger price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the national pig price may stop falling and some areas may see a small increase [22] Trading Strategy - Short - term long positions may still have space, but in the medium - term, consider supply postponement and hedging pressure [23]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

Group 1 - CBOT soybean increased by 0.5 cents to 1068.25 cents per bushel, while CBOT soybean oil rose by 0.04 cents to 55.4 cents per pound, and BMD crude palm oil increased by 35 ringgit to 4101 ringgit [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 15 were reported at 513,213 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the previous period, with exports to China rising by 4,700 tons to 54,200 tons [1] - Indonesia's palm oil exports in May reached 1.983 million tons, a 43.3% increase from April, with a notable rise in exports to China [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 to 15 decreased by 4% month-on-month, with both fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rate declining [1] - The price difference between Indonesian and Malaysian crude palm oil was reported at $65, an increase of $1 from the previous day, while the price difference between Argentine crude soybean oil and Malaysian 24-degree palm oil decreased by $18 to $39 [1] - The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation and U.S. biodiesel policies, with CBOT soybean oil and NYMEX crude oil prices rising, positively impacting BMD palm oil [1] Group 3 - Domestic palm oil prices lack competitiveness, with limited demand and port inventories close to the five-year average, heavily influenced by international markets [1] - Domestic soybean oil inventory pressure is manageable, but there is a high possibility of future accumulation [1] - Short-term trading is expected to show a strong upward trend, with main reference prices for soybean oil at 7900 - 8200, palm oil at 8400 - 8700, and rapeseed oil at 9500 - 9800 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatile trading of CBOT soybean oil driven by speculation surrounding U.S. biodiesel policies, highlighting a significant increase in net long positions among speculators, reaching a six-month high, and raising questions about whether this represents a future investment opportunity or a market bubble [1] Group 1 - The speculation around U.S. biodiesel policies has led to a "roller coaster" market for CBOT soybean oil [1] - Speculators' net long positions in futures and options have expanded to a six-month high [1] - The bullish sentiment towards oil shares has reached an all-time high [1]