Economic Overview - In September, the economy continued the trend of "production resilience, demand slowdown," with retail sales and real estate sales both lower than previous values[1] - The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2, aligning with expectations and reflecting the impact of tariff shocks and domestic structural adjustments[2] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous month, influenced by the depletion of prior subsidies and a high base from last year[5] - Fixed asset investment in September decreased by 8.4%, with manufacturing, broad infrastructure, narrow infrastructure, and real estate investments down by 1.9%, 8.0%, 4.7%, and 21.3% respectively, indicating a widening decline across sectors[22] Industrial Production - Industrial output in September rose by 6.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August, supported by resilient exports and an additional working day due to holiday arrangements[5] - The performance of downstream industries was relatively strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 7.1% for downstream, midstream, and upstream industries respectively[9] Risks and Policy Implications - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and possible measurement errors in data[29] - The necessity for further policy stimulus in Q4 is low unless significant risks arise in real estate, exports, or employment[4]