1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market in 2026 faces significant oversupply pressure. Demand growth is expected to slow down notably, with the restocking demands in Europe and the US diverging and having limited elasticity. Although emerging markets remain resilient, they cannot fully offset the weakness in traditional markets. The supply side will see continuous release of new capacity. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, it may exacerbate the global oversupply of shipping capacity. Coupled with the delivery pressure of large - scale vessels in 2026, the annual supply - demand gap will widen further. Policy risks are the key variables, and the ability to fulfill cargo volumes will be the core factor affecting freight rate fluctuations. Overall, the freight rate center will be under pressure in 2026, with limited upside potential during the peak season. Consider short - selling opportunities in the April and October contracts at high levels [3][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in 2025 - **January 2025**: The market continued the upward trend from the end - of - year peak season in 2024, but the actual cargo volume fell short of expectations. With redundant supply (a 10% increase in weekly average capacity compared to the previous month) and the rising expectation of the Red Sea route resumption, the EC2504 contract price dropped from 1722 points to 1163 points, a cumulative decline of 32.4% [7] - **Around the Spring Festival in 2025**: Shipping companies expanded the scope of sailings cancellations to stabilize freight rates. The market price stopped falling and stabilized. The market expected a post - festival price increase, and the EC2504 contract price stood firmly above 1300 points. After the Spring Festival, shipping companies announced a freight rate increase in March, driving the contract price from a discount to a premium and starting a unilateral upward trend [7] - **After the Spring Festival - early April 2025**: Despite continuous price - hike signals from shipping companies, the actual implementation was poor. It was the traditional off - season, and the cargo volume recovery was below expectations. The capacity pressure from the concentrated delivery of new ships emerged (cumulative delivery in the first three quarters exceeded 300,000 TEU). The EC main contract fluctuated widely between 1500 - 1700 points, maintaining a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [8] - **April - May 2025**: On April 2, the US government announced additional tariffs on China, causing a sharp drop in cargo volume on the US - West route. The capacity originally allocated to the US route was diverted to the European route, worsening the supply - demand imbalance. The EC2506 contract price fell from 1700 points to 1530 points, a 10% decline, and market panic spread [8] - **Mid - May - late June 2025**: The EC contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. As the Sino - US trade negotiation atmosphere improved, there was a rush of bookings on the US - West route. However, the US - line freight rate was weak, which affected the European - line market sentiment. The actual situation deviated from the market's previous expectations, pushing the EC contract price down [9] - **Late June - late July 2025**: The container shipping European - line futures market rose overall. The weighted index climbed from 1500 points to 1800 points. The positive sentiment in the commodity market and the tight supply - demand situation during the peak season drove the price up. The main contract smoothly transitioned from the 08 contract to the 10 contract, and the 12 contract also rose, forming a multi - contract upward pattern [10] - **Late July - late September 2025**: The market declined continuously. The off - season characteristics became obvious in mid - July, and the spot freight rate started to fall. The trading logic of the 10 contract shifted to be fundamentally driven. The 10 contract and far - month contracts entered a downward channel. In mid - August, the spot market decline intensified, and the 10 contract deviated from the 12 and 02 contracts. In the traditional off - season, the spot market price war emerged, and the 10 contract fell to below 1100 points. The 12 contract oscillated, and the 02 contract's price center rose slightly [11] - **September - end of November 2025**: Shipping companies repeatedly announced freight rate increases, but the actual implementation was weak. The EC12 contract price rose to 1960 points and then fell back to 1550 points. The rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict accelerated the discount process of far - month contracts, and the market worried more about the oversupply in 2026 [12] - **December 2025**: On the spot side, the PA alliance accumulated a large amount of cargo through low - price strategies in the first half of the month, and the blank sailings in the last two weeks eased the pressure. The market quotation stabilized at $2400/FEU, and the freight rate center increased by over $200 in late December. Leading shipping companies coordinated to support prices, boosting market confidence. The European seasonal stocking demand increased cargo volume, and the capacity utilization rate improved. The weekly average capacity on the European route shrank to 285,000 TEU in late December. The slow progress of the Red Sea route resumption did not add new negative factors to the supply side. The 2602 contract showed a bullish tendency, but overall, it was still a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [12][13] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Static Capacity Supply - The supply pressure in the container shipping market remains huge. After a decline from 8 million TEU to 6 million TEU from mid - 2023 to mid - 2024, the total container ship orders reached a new high of 9.9 million TEU due to the Red Sea crisis. Orders are mainly for ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU, and the order volume of ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU (mostly for the European route) increased sharply from 960,000 TEU to 4 million TEU. The order volume of 12000 - 16999 TEU ships decreased, with new orders of 764,000 TEU and deliveries of 1.118 million TEU this year, while the 17000 + TEU ships had new orders of 1.841 million TEU and deliveries of 254,000 TEU [14][16] 3.2.2 Dynamic Capacity Supply - The market focuses more on short - to - medium - term capacity supply, which is affected by shipping schedules (capacity deployment), idle capacity, sailing speed, and port and canal congestion. - **Capacity Deployment**: The 17 routes priced in the SCFIS European line are operated by different alliances and companies. The weekly average capacity deployment on the European route in the third and fourth quarters increased by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU compared to last year, indicating sufficient supply [24] - **Idle Capacity and Sailing Speed**: The idle capacity is close to 780,000 TEU, at a normal level, and has little impact on freight rates. The sailing speed is slightly faster than the economic speed and has decreased compared to last year as the new ships have met the demand [27] - **In - Port Capacity**: The in - port capacity in European ports was relatively high in the first half of the year due to strikes but has returned to normal since late May, without seriously affecting the supply chain [33] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Tariff Issues - **2025 Performance**: In April, the Trump administration introduced "reciprocal tariffs" on China, initially at 34% and later raised to 145%, causing a more than 30% decline in China's exports to the US from April to May. China counter - imposed tariffs on US imports, initially at 84% and later raised to 125%. After a trade consultation in May, the retaliatory tariffs were temporarily suspended, and a 10% base tariff plus a 20% fentanyl - specific tariff was implemented until November 2026 [39] - **2026 Outlook**: High tariffs have significantly reduced demand on the US route, with the SCFI US - line freight rate down 40% year - on - year. Shipping companies have shifted capacity to other markets, intensifying the global supply - demand imbalance. China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America increased by 10% - 15%, and the export proportion of products like machinery, electronics, and new - energy vehicles has risen. The US restocking demand may be delayed until the second quarter with limited elasticity, and the EU's anti - subsidy investigations and green trade barriers will continue to pressure the market. The demand growth in the global container shipping market may slow down [48][49] 3.3.2 Red Sea Issues - **2025 Situation**: A partial cease - fire agreement in the Israel - Palestine conflict in October led to CMA CGM's trial resumption of the Red Sea route, and the Suez Canal Authority promoted related negotiations and offered toll discounts. However, due to security concerns from the Houthi rebels and pirate activities, the annual resumption rate of the Red Sea route in 2025 was only 30% of the pre - pandemic level. Ship detours around the Cape of Good Hope increased the voyage by 30%, reducing effective capacity by 30% and increasing fuel costs by 40%. The SCFI European - line freight rate dropped 50% year - on - year, with limited rebound during the peak season [52][53] - **2026 Outlook**: If the cease - fire in Gaza continues until the first quarter of 2026, the Red Sea route may resume in March. If the resumption is successful, the global container shipping oversupply will intensify by 30%, the weekly average capacity on the European route will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU, and the peak - season freight rate center may drop by over 30%. If the detour continues, the supply growth will slow to 5%, but the demand will still be pressured by the economic divergence in Europe and the US, and the freight rate center will face downward pressure [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market was influenced by factors such as South American production expectations, Sino-US trade relations, US soybean growing - season weather, Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties, and sufficient Brazilian soybean arrivals. Under the pressure of a generally loose supply pattern, the futures price continued to fluctuate in a low - level range [3]. - The December USDA report shows that the US soybean yield per unit and export volume remain unchanged, and there is limited room for adjustment in US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of February 2026, with 5.5 - 6 million tons already purchased, and the current purchase pace is acceptable. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase in 2026 [3]. - Brazil has completed soybean sowing, and Argentina's sowing progress is about 50%. The current South American weather is favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The combined soybean output of the two countries is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year, and the loose supply pattern continues [3]. - From January to October 2025, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Domestic feed demand will slow down next year as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity. Global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, mainly due to the expansion of US production capacity and the development of biodiesel policies, and a small increase in Brazilian biodiesel [3]. - Assuming continued bumper harvests in South American producing areas, an increase in the US soybean planting area, and maintaining the trend yield per unit, domestic soybean meal demand will slow down slightly due to the reduction of production capacity in the breeding sector. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the upside and downside spaces are both limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - From January to the Spring Festival in 2024, the continuous soybean meal contract rebounded after an oversell due to factors such as the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit in the January USDA report, disruptions in the Argentine producing area, slow initial harvesting progress in Brazil, and the short - term emotional support from tariff policy expectations. From February to March 2025, the price fluctuated widely. The acceleration of the Brazilian harvest, improved crop forecasts in Argentina, and the cooling of tariff policy speculation weakened the upward momentum, while the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the loosening supply of soybean meal suppressed the price. From April to May, the price first rose sharply and then fell. The sharp increase in US tariffs, the decline in the US soybean planting area, and the slowdown of the soybean clearance rhythm supported the price, but the subsequent large - scale arrival of Brazilian soybeans led to a continuous decline. From June to July, the price first rose and then fell due to weather - related factors and supply expectations. In August, the price rose due to the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean planting area. From late August to mid - October, the price weakened due to sufficient supply from Brazilian soybeans. From late October to the present, the price first rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and then fell due to factors such as the slow progress of US soybean exports and the good weather in South American producing areas [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report shows that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons; the global soybean crushing demand is 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons; the global soybean ending inventory is 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.01%, slightly tightened compared with the previous year. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose [10]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area remains at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit at 53 bushels per acre, the export demand at 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 6.74%. The total planting area of US soybeans, corn, and wheat has been relatively stable in recent years. In 2025, the US soybean planting area was the lowest in the past five years. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase to 84 million acres in 2026 [16]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 227.647 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/26 season is 4.5%. As of the end of October 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.305 billion pounds [21]. 2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were 1.248 million tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, lower than 55.5% in the same period last year. After the Sino - US high - level meeting in late October, China restarted the purchase of US soybeans. As of early December, China's purchase volume is estimated to be between 5.5 and 6 million tons, and the US expects China to purchase 12 million tons by the end of February 2026. The December USDA report made no adjustments to export demand, and the subsequent adjustment space is limited [25]. 2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The November USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 175 million tons, the export demand at 112.5 million tons (an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year), and the crushing demand at 59 million tons (an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year). The ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 20.68%. The export demand has been significantly increased, and China's import structure will further increase the weight of Brazilian soybeans. Brazil's biodiesel policy will lead to a small increase in soybean crushing demand in the future. In 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume in October was 6.73 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 100.64 million tons. The export volume to China in October was 6.17 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 78.93 million tons. As of the week ending November 29, 2025, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was 86%, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest [27][30][33]. 2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 48.5 million tons, the import at 7.7 million tons, the export demand at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand at 41 million tons, and the ending inventory at 22.84 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 40.46%. Due to the reduction of the sowing area, the output is estimated to be 48.5 million tons. The export demand has increased this year, leading to a tightening of the domestic soybean supply and a decline in the crushing demand. The inventory structure is relatively stable. As of the previous week, the soybean sowing progress was 44.7%. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing area is expected to be 25 - 30mm, which is conducive to sowing [34][46]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - According to customs data, China's soybean import volume in October 2025 was 9.48 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 95.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73 million tons. As of the week ending December 2, the purchase progress for December, January, and February shipments is 97%, 56%, and 41% respectively. The 2025/26 purchase volume of US soybeans is about 4 million tons. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of rapeseed from January to October was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed meal in October was 221,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 2.33 million tons. The import structure has changed, with India and Russia as alternative suppliers. The start of the auction of imported soybean reserves can supplement the market supply [47][49]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons. As of the week ending December 5, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 140,280 tons, the daily average提货量 was 184,300 tons, the major oil mill crushing volume was 2.0558 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.49 days. With the decrease in imports and the increase in pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory of oil mills will be depleted faster, supporting the near - term contracts [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. From January to October, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. However, as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity, domestic feed demand will slow down next year [55][56]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated in a low - level range under the influence of various factors and the pressure of a loose supply pattern. The December USDA report shows limited adjustment space for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The South American weather is favorable, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strengthened. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year. The global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, while domestic feed demand will slow down next year. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [68][69].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about persistent inflation and tariff effects versus worries about weak employment and slowing demand [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Some officials advocate for pausing interest rate cuts due to concerns over sticky inflation and tariff impacts [1] - Dovish members emphasize the importance of addressing weak employment and declining demand [1] - The government shutdown has interrupted key economic data, exacerbating the division among decision-makers [1] Group 2: Current Interest Rate Context - The current interest rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in December, despite the internal Fed conflict [1] - The situation reflects a rare "hawk-dove standoff" within the Federal Reserve in recent years [1]

Economic Overview - In September, the economy continued the trend of "production resilience, demand slowdown," with retail sales and real estate sales both lower than previous values[1] - The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2, aligning with expectations and reflecting the impact of tariff shocks and domestic structural adjustments[2] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous month, influenced by the depletion of prior subsidies and a high base from last year[5] - Fixed asset investment in September decreased by 8.4%, with manufacturing, broad infrastructure, narrow infrastructure, and real estate investments down by 1.9%, 8.0%, 4.7%, and 21.3% respectively, indicating a widening decline across sectors[22] Industrial Production - Industrial output in September rose by 6.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August, supported by resilient exports and an additional working day due to holiday arrangements[5] - The performance of downstream industries was relatively strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 7.1% for downstream, midstream, and upstream industries respectively[9] Risks and Policy Implications - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and possible measurement errors in data[29] - The necessity for further policy stimulus in Q4 is low unless significant risks arise in real estate, exports, or employment[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about potential supply surplus and demand slowdown [1][4][5] - Oil prices have fallen sharply in August, marking the longest consecutive decline since 2021, with Brent and WTI crude oil hovering around $66 and $64 per barrel respectively [1] - The significant pullback in oil prices is primarily attributed to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums, particularly following positive signals regarding potential U.S.-Russia negotiations [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ has decided to relax production limits, raising investor concerns about a possible supply surplus later this year [5] - The Brent crude spot price spread has narrowed to a premium structure of $0.53 per barrel, down from over $1 a month ago, indicating a significant easing of short-term supply tightness [6] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth due to broad trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which poses a potential threat to energy demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. The resumption of production in the southwest production area is accelerating, and new production capacity is expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear. There is a large potential for production capacity release, and a significant price rebound may trigger more idle capacity restart, increasing supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. The spot price of organic silicon is rising, the production profit is slightly declining, and the start - up rate is rising, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream demand has declined significantly. Although production increased slightly last week, the increase is limited, and subsequent capacity mergers and reorganizations are expected to intensify. Potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices decline, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, with little demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries is still slowing down [2] - The main contract of industrial silicon has switched to 2511. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the position of the main contract is 224,390 lots, an increase of 1,5654 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 67,415 lots, a decrease of 1,089 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,580 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 15, an increase of 10 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 595 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, an increase of 5,500 tons; social inventory is 552,000 tons per week, an increase of 10,000 tons; imports are 2,211.36 tons per month, an increase of 71.51 tons; exports are 52,919.65 tons per month, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars per kilogram, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars per kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly start - up rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.08%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will conduct special energy - saving inspections on 41 polysilicon enterprises, and requires localities to report inspection results by September 30 [2] - The resumption of production in the southwest industrial silicon production area is accelerating, and new production capacity is expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear [2]

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed mixed results with significant movements in various sectors, including a rise in lumber and coking coal prices by over 2%, while egg prices fell by over 4% [1][2][4] - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1424.34 points, a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous trading day [1] Lumber Market Insights - Lumber prices surged by 2.81% due to optimistic expectations for the traditional consumption peak season in September and October, alongside increased foreign pricing [2] - The inventory levels of imported New Zealand lumber remained stable, but a significant increase in incoming shipments was noted, with 14 vessels expected, a 133% week-on-week increase [2] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices rebounded by over 1% following a significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and economic conditions [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support precious metal prices in the long term [3] Egg Market Dynamics - Egg futures experienced a notable decline of over 4%, attributed to an early surge in spot prices and insufficient demand [4] - The upcoming seasonal demand period is expected to influence prices, with potential for a rebound in September contracts as the market prepares for holiday stocking [4] Industrial Silicon Trends - Industrial silicon prices fell by over 3%, primarily due to increased production from small to medium-sized enterprises in the Southwest region [5] - The demand for industrial silicon remains weak across its main downstream sectors, including organic silicon and polysilicon, with overall demand showing a downward trend [5] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production, which has pressured international oil prices and led to declines in related energy and chemical products [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - **Supply Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - **Inventory**: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the demand slowdown caused by tariffs will offset some inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are contributing to a decrease in demand, which is expected to have a moderating effect on inflation [1] - The offsetting impact of reduced demand due to tariffs may lead to a more stable economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that both core and total CPI inflation in the U.S. fell in February, below market expectations, indicating a weakening economic demand and potential for continued inflation suppression in the future [1][3][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In February, the seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.4% the previous month, and year-on-year decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. Total CPI also saw a month-on-month decline from 0.5% to 0.2% and a year-on-year drop from 3% to 2.8%, both below market expectations [3][6]. - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude falling from $80 per barrel on January 20 to $69, contributing to a 1% month-on-month decline in gasoline prices in February. This decline is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and reduced demand due to government spending cuts [3][4]. - Airline ticket prices dropped by 4% month-on-month, reflecting weakened demand, as major U.S. airlines have lowered their profit forecasts due to a soft macro environment [3][4]. Core Services and Housing Market - The supercore price index, excluding rent, saw a month-on-month increase drop from 0.8% to 0.2%. Hospital service prices fell from 0.9% to 0.1%, and auto rental prices shifted from a 1.7% increase to a 1.3% decrease [4][6]. - Rent prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, and leading indicators suggest no upward pressure on rents, indicating that the housing market is unlikely to contribute to inflation in 2025 [4][6]. Core Goods and Tariff Impact - Core goods prices saw a decrease in growth from 0.3% to 0.2%. Used car prices fell from a 2.2% increase to 0.9%, while new car prices turned negative at -0.1%, indicating a potential end to replacement demand due to past disasters [5][6]. - Concerns over tariffs remain, with plans for increased tariffs on a broader range of imports, which could create uncertainty in future pricing for consumer goods [5][6]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the slowdown in U.S. demand may help suppress inflation, but uncertainties surrounding tariffs could complicate this path. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance and may not lower interest rates until the third quarter [6][7].