周度报告-国债期货 市场多空交织，国债震荡寻底 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡下跌 国 债 期 货 本周（09.08-09.14）国债期货震荡下跌。周一，虽然 8 月进出口 数据均不及预期，但周末利多股市因素较多且近期市场对基本 面不敏感，股市震荡上涨，国债期货震荡下跌。周二，受资金 面收敛影响，日内股市虽震荡下跌，但债市表现并不强。尾盘 市场担忧基金免税政策取消，指数型债基大额赎回，现券利率 上行。周三，8 月 CPI 同比增速不及市场预期，但债市对基本面 脱敏，基金赎回压力较大，债市大幅走弱。周四，虽然股票市 场强劲上涨，但资金面边际转松，市场期待央行通过重启公开 市场国债买卖等方式稳定市场情绪，国债期货多数由跌转涨。 周五，市场消息面相对平静，股市高位震荡，收益率曲线有所 修复、整体走平。尾盘央行公布的 8 月金融数据整体偏弱，现 券利率小幅下行。截至 9 月 12 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三 十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.364、105.580、 107.680 和 115.160 元，分别较上周末变动-0.024、+0.000、-0.240 和-1.140 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day. The impact of the recent tariff war has marginally subsided, the Fed has a low willingness to cut interest rates in the short term, and the domestic economic indicators in the first quarter performed well, reducing the necessity of interest rate cuts in the short term. Thus, the upside space for treasury bond futures is limited. In the medium to long term, external uncertainty risks are increasing, the external situation is severe, and domestic policies are needed to boost internal demand. Whether from the perspective of reducing the financing costs of the real economy or coordinating the implementation of fiscal policies, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the future, and treasury bond futures have strong bottom support. Overall, it is expected that treasury bond futures will remain in a high - level volatile consolidation in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On April 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 250.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with a winning bid rate of 1.5%. There were 28.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the 2025 Special Treasury Bonds (Phase I) for Capital Injection into Central Financial Institutions (5 - year term). The face value of this issuance of treasury bonds through competitive bidding is 165 billion yuan, and there will be no additional bids from Class A members. The coupon rate will be determined through competitive bidding. The bonds will start accruing interest on April 25, 2025, with annual interest payments on April 25 of each year (postponed in case of holidays), and the principal and the last interest payment will be repaid on April 25, 2030. The bidding time is from 10:35 to 11:35 on the morning of April 24, 2025 [5] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the TL2506, T2506, TF2506, TS2506 trends, the treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][9]