Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a convergence of the December interest - rate cut expectation, with the market - priced probability dropping from 60% to 50%. The end of the US government shutdown and other factors have affected the financial markets. Domestically, October's credit and social financing data were weak. The A - share market may reach new highs in the short term but faces adjustment risks, while the bond market is in a volatile and differentiated state [2][3]. - The recent rebound in precious metal prices has ended, and they will enter a new adjustment phase. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term. Aluminum prices may undergo high - level consolidation due to short - term macro - mood changes. Alumina futures will continue to oscillate. Cast aluminum will mainly follow the high - level oscillations of primary aluminum. Zinc prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. Lead prices will undergo high - level adjustments. Tin prices will experience high - level adjustments with limited adjustment ranges. Industrial silicon prices will shift to oscillations in the short term. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely. Nickel prices have limited downside space. Soda ash and glass prices will maintain low - level oscillations. Steel prices will mainly oscillate and adjust. Iron ore prices will face pressure. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate and adjust. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [4][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][17][19][21][23][24][25][26][29][31]. Summaries by Catalog Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials are concerned about inflation stickiness. After two interest - rate cuts this year, the labor market has stabilized. The market - priced probability of a December interest - rate cut has dropped from 60% to 50%. Trump signed a bill to end the government shutdown, which caused about $1.5 trillion in losses. The US dollar index fell to 99.1, the US stock market fell by more than 2%, US bond yields rose, and gold, copper, and oil prices were affected [2]. - Domestic: In October, credit and social financing weakened. Government bond issuance declined, and real - economy financing demand was weak. The A - share market rose unilaterally, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. The bond market was volatile and differentiated, and long - term bond yields weakened [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious - metal futures prices fell. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The reopening of the US government, Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and a decline in interest - rate cut expectations led to a correction in precious - metal prices [4]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper prices strengthened, and LME copper prices rose and then slightly declined. The internal divergence between hawkish and dovish factions at the Fed is prominent, and the December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, which drags down market risk appetite. Globally, the tight supply situation at mines continues, domestic refined copper production decreases monthly, and emerging industries drive new demand. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with attention to the $11000 resistance for LME copper [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum prices rose, and LME aluminum prices fell. The change in short - term macro - mood may lead to high - level consolidation of aluminum prices. Domestically, aluminum social inventories decreased slightly this week, and overseas supply is expected to be disrupted due to power shortages, providing strong support for aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures prices rose. The bearish effect of supply - demand balance and surplus continues to affect prices, but as spot prices approach costs and with the start of the heating season in the north, the expectation of production cuts is strengthening. The futures market is in a state of multi - empty game and will continue to oscillate [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast - aluminum alloy futures prices rose. The cost of scrap aluminum is tight, and copper and industrial silicon prices remain high, providing strong cost support. Supply is stable, and terminal automobile consumption is resilient. After reaching a new high, the position decreased slightly, and cast - aluminum prices are expected to follow the high - level oscillations of primary aluminum [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc prices were volatile, and LME zinc prices strengthened. The end of the US government shutdown and Fed officials' cautious signals on interest - rate cuts weakened market sentiment, causing zinc prices to fall. Domestic zinc exports are being realized, and overseas liquidity pressure has eased, weakening the support for zinc prices. Domestic consumption has weakened, but there is support at the bottom due to pressure on processing fees. Zinc prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead prices fell, and LME lead prices were narrowly oscillating. The spread between futures and spot prices widened, and the willingness of holders to deliver increased. Social inventories increased, and the contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated. Lead prices are expected to undergo high - level adjustments in the short term [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin prices were volatile at a high level, and LME tin prices weakened. Market risk appetite declined, and SHFE tin prices decreased with reduced positions. Supply recovery is slow, and emerging demand has good prospects. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level with a limited adjustment range [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon prices oscillated. Supply has shifted to marginal contraction, and demand is cautious. The recent positive market sentiment has been realized, and prices are expected to shift to oscillations in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Domestic policies support energy storage development, and industry leaders have signed large - scale orders, but the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has turned negative year - on - year, and there is an expectation of strong import resource growth. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have reduced the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, but the Fed's bond - buying plan may ease dollar liquidity pressure. Philippine nickel ore prices are high, providing strong cost support. Nickel prices have limited downside space [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, soda - ash futures prices strengthened, and glass futures prices oscillated. Soda - ash production has decreased due to concentrated maintenance, and inventory has slightly declined. Glass demand is weak, and inventory has increased. Soda - ash and glass prices are expected to maintain low - level oscillations in the short term [22][23]. Steel - On Thursday, steel futures prices oscillated and rebounded slightly. This week, the supply of five major steel products decreased, inventory declined, and apparent consumption decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [24]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures prices oscillated and rebounded. This week, port inventory increased, and downstream demand entered the off - season. Iron - ore prices are expected to face pressure [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking - coal and coke futures prices oscillated. Coal mine production has recovered, and the fourth round of coke price increases has partially taken effect. Downstream steel mills have increased maintenance, and demand for raw materials is expected to weaken. Coking - coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [26]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, bean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures prices rose. The US government shutdown has ended, and the USDA crop - yield assessment report is about to be released. The market has a bullish expectation, and external - market prices are rising, providing cost support. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [27][29]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil, soybean - oil, and rapeseed - oil futures prices rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, and it has shown strength. The supply of palm oil is loose, but the upcoming road test of Indonesia's B50 in December and its implementation in the second half of next year have boosted market sentiment. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30][31].