国家重建

Search documents
乌克兰国力见底,欧洲粮仓正在打光最后一颗子弹
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 07:10
一句话概括,乌克兰已经接近见底了,未来不会比现在更好,但也不会比现在更差。 在经历了十年的政治动荡、三年半的持续军事冲突之后,乌克兰目前的国家实体遭到毁灭性削弱,人口从约4300万锐减至约2800万、并且由于外逃难民多为 适龄劳动力导致无论产业劳动者还是后备兵源都几近枯竭;马里乌波尔的钢铁生产基地、哈尔科夫的军工产业、扎波罗热的核电等关乎国家命脉的工业生产 部门或遭到毁灭性打击或落入俄罗斯控制,产业基础几近全毁;作为欧洲最主要的粮食产区,乌克兰的农业在俄乌冲突爆发后遭到严重干扰,无论是粮食种 植还是出口都受到极大程度的影响。 这种情况下,无论未来乌克兰由谁掌控、其执政能力如何、对外政策主张是偏向亲欧还是亲俄,都面临着接手一个几乎烂到根上的烂摊子的窘境,更要命的 是无论是俄罗斯还是欧盟都难以消化这个烫手山芋。 唯一值得庆幸的是,乌克兰大量的外逃难民在战后必然有部分回流、为乌克兰恢复部分人口规模奠定基础,而战争再如何具有破坏力也无法改变自然禀赋、 乌克兰作为世界三大黑土地带的地位仍然不可动摇,这让乌克兰恢复农业生产具备了人力和基础物质条件。 虽然从一个具有相当水平重工业体系的国家完全退化为农业国对于乌克兰来说过于 ...
列国鉴·黎巴嫩|记者观察:黎巴嫩国家重建道阻且长
Xin Hua She· 2025-05-21 09:00
Core Viewpoint - Lebanon is facing its most severe challenges since the civil war, with ongoing economic crises and the aftermath of prolonged conflicts, despite a ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024 [1][12]. Economic Conditions - The waste recycling economy is emerging in war-torn areas, with individuals scavenging for valuable materials to earn money [3]. - Food prices have skyrocketed by 65 times since 2018 due to a lack of price control and exploitation by merchants [3]. - The Lebanese pound has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate reaching 89,000 LBP to 1 USD, drastically altering consumer purchasing habits [5]. Humanitarian Efforts - Humanitarian organizations are increasing efforts to provide essential supplies to returnees, but demand far exceeds supply [3]. - A significant portion of the population is still displaced, with only about 15% of residents in southern border villages returning home after the conflict [5]. Historical Context - Beirut was once known as the "Paris of the Middle East," thriving economically and politically until the civil war began in 1975, which caused extensive damage and loss [9][11]. - The civil war resulted in approximately 150,000 deaths and economic losses estimated at 1 trillion USD [11]. Political Landscape - Lebanon's governance is characterized by a sectarian power-sharing system, which complicates decision-making and hinders significant reforms [16][18]. - The political system has led to a concentration of power among a few families, making it difficult to implement necessary economic changes [16][18]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Lebanon needs to shift its economic focus from banking and real estate to sustainable agriculture, clean energy, and digital economy [18]. - Comprehensive economic reforms, including restructuring the banking system and attracting foreign investment, are essential for recovery [18].