Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The recent strength of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is triggered by the Middle - East situation. The report analyzes the situation from three aspects: supply - demand fundamentals, international market linkages, and capital and market sentiment. It also provides outlooks for the market under three different scenarios of the Middle - East situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Fluctuations As of 11:30 on March 9, 2026, soybean meal was locked at the daily limit, and rapeseed meal slightly fell from the daily limit. In the afternoon, soybean meal opened the limit, and both soybean and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The import cost of soybeans has risen, there are concerns about supply shortages due to potential delays in Brazilian soybean arrivals and RMB exchange - rate fluctuations. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to anti - dumping duties. The crushing profit has been low, resulting in limited soybean meal supply. The downstream replenishment demand has risen as inventories have decreased year - on - year [1]. - **International market linkages**: The CBOT soybean price has risen due to increased biodiesel demand expectations. South American weather conditions may affect soybean production, and overseas rapeseed production may be lower, causing the ICE rapeseed price to rise slightly [1]. - **Capital and market sentiment**: A large amount of long - position capital has flowed into the market, and the market sentiment has been high. Short - term funds in the futures market have chased hot - spot varieties, amplifying price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - **Scenario 1: The Middle - East situation ends within a week**: The upward trend of protein feed may end, or it may rise first and then fall, returning to a volatile state [2]. - **Scenario 2: The Middle - East situation lasts and worsens, ending in 2 - 4 weeks**: Brazilian soybean arrivals may be delayed, and the protein feed will continue to rise, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Scenario 3: The Middle - East situation turns into a long - term war**: Global fertilizer prices may rise, increasing the cost of U.S. soybean planting. The soaring oil price will stimulate biodiesel demand, further pushing up the price of U.S. soybeans. The domestic protein feed price will rise significantly, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **For spot enterprises**: Oil mills should focus on basis sales opportunities in March. Soybean meal traders should buy on dips for hedging and sell basis at high levels. Downstream feed and breeding enterprises should also buy on dips for hedging and basis. If there are no positions, buying spot at a fixed price and stockpiling safety inventories is a practical choice [4]. - **For institutional investors**: Buy on dips. If holding long positions, set stop - loss and take - profit levels, and add positions on dips while controlling the position size. Also, buy put options or construct a collar strategy to hedge the risk of sudden price drops [4].