1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and the risk premium usually fades within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months. If the current conflict subsides quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will show a downward trend, with structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to decline, and downstream processing links will see improved profitability [5][6]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. Gold is expected to continue with a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. Pulp futures are in an interval oscillation [7][11][12][16][18][20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts on oil prices are mostly short - term emotional premiums rather than long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the crude oil risk premium will quickly be reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. The trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - The crude oil chemical futures as a whole will follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE will see weakened cost support and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The larger the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - based olefins and methanol have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to decline, and a smaller decline compared with pure oil - chemical varieties. Downstream processing links such as plastic and rubber products will see relieved cost pressure, improved marginal profitability, and smoother price transmission [6]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythm - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: It is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. The Shanghai Composite Index is still within the 15 - minute oscillation range [7][8]. - Gold: Gold has stabilized in the daily - level oscillation. After a higher opening, it showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. It should be treated with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset in the future [11]. - Iron ore: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the influence of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come [12][13]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [16][17]. - Methanol: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for over 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities have led to a sharp increase in the expectation of import supply contraction, which is the core driver of this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as high - level oscillation [18]. - Pulp: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp enterprises' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown an interval oscillation recently [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand recovery, and risk mitigation. The gap between Europe and the US will narrow, and emerging markets will maintain relatively high growth. The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts will cause oil price fluctuations, and inflation expectations will rise. The core variables for the market are the rhythm of monetary policy, inflation path, and geopolitical evolution. The global economy is seeking re - balance in a weak recovery, with more resilience than downside risks [6][106]. - Domestic crude oil futures will enter a five - fold game stage of geopolitical premium convergence, supply restoration, demand peak - season verification, inventory re - balance, and recession expectation suppression. The extreme market in Q1 will end, and the price will return to a pattern dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, with a high - level, volatile, and slightly downward trend. The core driver will shift from "supply panic" to "real - world constraints and rhythm game" [6]. - The supply side will change from "extremely tight" in Q1 to "marginally loose" in Q2. The demand side will enter a stage of peak - season recovery, structural differentiation, and limited resilience. The inventory side will shift from a low - level tight balance to slow inventory accumulation, which will be the core constraint on the market [6]. - Overall, in Q2, the supply - demand of domestic crude oil futures will be in a loose balance pattern of supply restoration, moderate demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak macro - environment. The price of the SC main contract may maintain a high - level wide - range volatile trend, and it is difficult to reproduce the unilateral sharp rise in Q1. The main tone is high - level volatility with a slowly declining center of gravity [6]. Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic crude oil futures (SC) had an epic market with initial stable consolidation, an increase in February, an extreme pulse in March, and a high - level decline at the end of the quarter. The main contract started at about 450 yuan per barrel at the beginning of the year and soared to 838 yuan per barrel in mid - March due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of over 85% [11]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around five main lines: geopolitical supply shock, OPEC+ production cuts, domestic demand pattern, low inventory, and macro and capital factors [12]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations Fall, Europe and the US Economies Continue to Diverge - Since 2026, the macro - economies of Europe and the US have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy shows strong resilience, with stable consumption and investment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery, constrained by insufficient domestic demand and structural bottlenecks [17]. - The US economy runs smoothly, with features of "steady growth, controllable inflation, and employment resilience". The eurozone's economic growth pressure is greater than that of the US. In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of narrowing divergence and mild recovery [18][20]. China's Economy Develops Steadily and Well in January - February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new driving forces grew rapidly, employment and prices were generally stable [36]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy will continue the stable and upward trend, and the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% for the whole year is more likely to be achieved [38]. OPEC+ Resumes Production Increase Measures, Supply Tightness Expectations Remain - In January - February 2026, the Middle - East crude oil market was characterized by policy - stabilized production, tight supply, and rising geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ continued to control production in Q1, and the production of core Middle - East countries was stable [54]. - In March, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict deteriorated sharply, and the supply pattern changed from "policy - controlled production" to "physical supply interruption". In Q2, OPEC+'s small - scale production increase will be implemented, but it is difficult to offset the supply interruption. Oil prices will remain high and volatile [56]. Global Crude Oil Demand in Q2 is Relatively Resilient - In March 2026, global crude oil demand was about 104.5 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The demand growth was led by non - OECD countries, especially Asian emerging markets [75]. - In Q2, global crude oil demand will enter the peak - season growth stage, with a total demand of 105 - 106 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% - 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% - 1.5% [77]. The US - Iran War Persists, Middle - East Geopolitical Turmoil Intensifies - In March 2026, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict escalated to a high - intensity confrontation. It affected global security, trade, and financial markets, and led to a sharp rise in oil prices [80]. - In late March to early April, the Middle - East situation will remain tense, with high - frequency military attacks, uncertain shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a low probability of a short - term cease - fire [84]. China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Significantly in January - February 2026 - In January - February 2026, China's domestic crude oil market showed stable domestic supply, high - growth imports, and high - level processing. The domestic crude oil futures showed a high - level volatile and premium - converging trend [91]. - In Q2, global crude oil consumption will enter the traditional off - season. With global supply being loose and geopolitical premium receding, domestic crude oil prices are likely to return to a "fundamentals - dominated, volatile and slightly downward" trend [94]. International Crude Oil Non - Commercial Net Long Positions Rise Significantly in Q1 2026 - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil futures were 233,620 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 168,722 contracts, or 259.98%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures were 315,830 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 216,735 contracts, or 218.71% [101].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums in oil prices, and the risk premium will quickly be reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical futures market will generally follow the decline, but there will be structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to price drops, and the downstream processing sector will see improved profitability [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East usually lead to short - term emotional premiums in oil prices. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. - If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will disappear. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [3][4]. II. Trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but there will be structural differentiation. - Direct oil - chemical varieties (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE) will see a weakening of cost support, and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythms - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties (such as coal - based olefins, methanol) have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to price drops, and a smaller decline compared to pure oil - chemical varieties. - The downstream processing sector (such as plastic and rubber products) will see a relief in cost pressure, an improvement in profitability, and smoother price transmission. - The speed of premium disappearance: The faster the conflict is resolved, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline. - Macroeconomic and supply - demand factors: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical analysis of various futures - **Stock index futures**: The market opened lower and closed higher today, with heavy trading volume at noon and finally closed with a mid -阳线. Technically, the 5 - minute adjustment is sufficient, and it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the early trading on Monday. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. Gold maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, and a bullish and volatile outlook is recommended for the future [12]. - **Iron ore**: The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills will resume production after the holiday, which may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, it is in a wide - range high - level shock, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [14][15]. - **Glass**: The daily melting has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday needs to be monitored. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper - level pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission mechanism, the current methanol price increase is "cost - driven". In the short term, downstream enterprises can digest cost pressure by raising prices, but if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level shock [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills are operating within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. Downstream paper mills' previously shut - down equipment has gradually resumed production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, has led to significant volatility in the downstream plastic raw materials market, resulting in a temporary "panic buying" frenzy that has since subsided, revealing a market characterized by high prices but low transaction volumes [1][3][10]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations and Market Reactions - The price of polyethylene has increased from approximately 6200 yuan per ton before the Spring Festival to around 9800 yuan, marking a rise of over 50% [3]. - A specific material's price has surged from a low of 7800 yuan to about 13000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 5000 yuan [3]. - Trade merchants are closely monitoring crude oil futures and geopolitical news, with some checking updates multiple times a day to avoid missing critical information that could affect pricing [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the initial panic buying, the market has transitioned to a state of "price stability with low transactions," as warehouses are now well-stocked, and the number of trucks picking up goods has significantly decreased [1][4]. - The overall outflow of goods has dropped by 30% to 40% for some traders due to the high volatility in raw material prices, leading to a situation where prices are high but sales are low [7]. - Many traders are unable to stockpile materials due to the unpredictable price changes, which complicates their ability to meet customer demands [7][9]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the current volatility, many industry participants maintain confidence in the long-term market, believing that the recent price fluctuations are primarily driven by short-term emotional responses rather than fundamental supply issues [10]. - The diverse sources of crude oil imports for China and the strong foundation of the supply chain are expected to mitigate long-term shortages of oil and plastic [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by the Middle - East situation, with geopolitical factors causing uncertainties and volatility in various commodity markets [2][3][4] - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and short - term market trends are mainly in a state of shock adjustment Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The Middle - East situation brings uncertainties, market sentiment recovers slowly, the downside space is limited, and it mainly shows shock adjustment in the short term [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The Middle - East situation eases temporarily, trading power in the bond market is insufficient, and it maintains a narrow - range shock pattern in the short term [2] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: Geopolitical premiums continue to decline, the market turns to the off - season supply - demand fundamentals, the new main contract is under pressure to shock, and it maintains a weak pattern in the short term [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price fluctuates weakly in the short term, and there is still value for medium - to - long - term layout [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices maintain shock fluctuations, the short - term rebound is limited, and they mainly show low - level shocks [5] - **Copper**: The pressure level moves up, the far - month contract price gradually recovers, and the high - volatility state continues [5] - **Aluminum**: It shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and the price continues to shock [6] - **Alumina**: The price fluctuates around 3000 yuan, and the trend is mainly shock adjustment [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7] - **Zinc**: It mainly follows the sector to shock, and attention should be paid to the inventory turning point at low prices [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Policy disturbances strengthen the price bottom, and supply - demand and policies jointly drive the market [8] - **Tin**: The price continues to rebound, and it is regarded as a shock in the short term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is loose, the demand is stable, and the market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The core contradiction is supply - demand imbalance, and the market is dominated by high inventory and insufficient demand [10][11] - **Lead**: The price is expected to shock strongly in the future [11] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost support is strong, but the upward space is limited, and real - estate and infrastructure policies support the demand [12] - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by cost and tight spot, but is suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They follow the energy expectations to fluctuate, and it is difficult to rise continuously beyond the fundamentals [13] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The cost support at the bottom gradually strengthens, and attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on the mining area [14][15] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The short - term is disturbed by news, and the fluctuation range converges [16] - **Fuel Oil**: The market weakens in stages, but the overall supply - tight logic remains unchanged [16] - **Asphalt**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are the core factors, overriding its own fundamentals [17] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The short - term shocks are strong, focusing on the closure duration of the strait and supply reduction [17] - **LPG**: It fluctuates in the short term with multiple factors intertwined [18] - **PP Propylene**: The price is difficult to return to the pre - event level, and it is mainly in a wait - and - see state in the short term [18] - **Plastic**: It shows a weak shock in the short term, and the supply - demand and geopolitical factors jointly act [19] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber rises and then falls, the natural rubber shocks and stabilizes, and it is expected to shock and stabilize in the medium - to - long - term [19] - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure is continuous, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high [20][21] - **Glass**: The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space, and the demand needs to be verified [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply pressure eases, the demand support is stable, and the price maintains a range - shock pattern [22] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The price is at a low - level shock, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with insufficient rebound power [23] - **Oilseeds**: The short - term spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is repaired [24][25] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the progress of US - Iran negotiations [25] - **Cotton**: The price has fallen, but there is still support below, and attention should be paid to US cotton export [25] - **Sugar**: The price maintains a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of export demand after the geopolitical situation eases [26] - **Eggs**: The price shows a narrow - range shock, and the cost and supply - demand jointly dominate the trend [26] - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure above, and it mainly shows a low - level shock and bottom - building [27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate. The demand in the market remains weak and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The high - level pressure of port inventory persists. The pulp price will mainly be in a narrow - range consolidation. Attention should be paid to the changes in the purchasing willingness of downstream paper mills and the dynamics of foreign offers [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 5,196 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume was 259,553 lots, a decrease of 119,071 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 186,345 lots, a decrease of 10,462 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 186,562 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons; the net position of the top 20 members was - 32,280 lots, an increase of 764 lots [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract was - 24, a decrease of 64; the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) was - 624, a decrease of 14; the month - spread of SP05 - SP07 was - 46, an increase of 4 [3] - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Beimu and Kalip were 5,450 yuan/ton, Moon was 5,150 yuan/ton, and Silver Star was 5,200 yuan/ton. The domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp such as Golden and Star were 4,600 yuan/ton. The domestic price of chemimechanical pulp (Yinghe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of natural pulp (Venus) was 4,800 yuan/ton [3] 2. Industry News - The pulp futures market rose slightly yesterday, driving the spot price of coniferous pulp to rise slightly. However, the actual market trading was rather light. Downstream paper mills had low purchasing enthusiasm due to average profits, and some enterprises adopted a price - pressing strategy, with limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials. The trend of broad - leaf pulp was relatively stable [4][5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. If the conflict ends quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to drop from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4] - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but show structural differentiation. Direct oil chemical varieties will see their prices fall in sync with crude oil, while coal chemical/light hydrocarbon route varieties are more resistant to decline, and downstream processing sectors will see improved profitability [5][6] - The stock index continues to show a strong upward trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Gold is expected to continue to be volatile and bullish. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range shock, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as a wide - range shock before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol inventories have decreased. Pulp has some bottom support [8][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Impact of Iran - US Conflict on Crude Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices. After most Middle East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to fundamental pricing [4] - If the current conflict ends quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only in the case of long - term blockade or continuous supply interruption in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is low [4] 2. Trends of Crude Oil Chemical Sector and Futures when Crude Oil Falls - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, with direct oil chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE seeing their prices fall in sync with crude oil, and the greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5] - Coal chemical/light hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - to - olefins and methanol are more resistant to decline, and downstream processing sectors such as plastic and rubber products will see improved profitability [6] 3. Key Influencing Factors and Rhythms - The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, usually completing the main decline within 1 - 4 weeks [6] - The concentrated liquidation of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6] - If global crude oil inventories rise, OPEC+ increases production or releases strategic reserves, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If demand remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6] 4. Technical Analysis of Different Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Continues to show a strong upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips. On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rebound and strengthen, and it is expected to form a three - wave rise in the 15 - minute chart in the early trading tomorrow [8][9] - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. It is expected to continue to be volatile and bullish [14] - **Iron Ore**: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. There is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - and long - term. The terminal demand needs time to start. It is in a high - level wide - range shock, and the right - side signal is yet to come [16][17] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has declined, and inventories have slightly decreased. It is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities in the short term. It should be treated as a wide - range shock before the upper pressure is broken [20][19] - **Methanol**: In March, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts and the tense situation in the Middle East, as of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.1555 million tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons from the previous period, with a decrease of 84,700 tons in East China [22] - **Pulp**: The current futures price has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited. It has attracted some corporate customers to take over, and there is some bottom support. Attention should be paid to position control [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of coking coal 2605 soared, hitting the daily limit of 1289.5 yuan/ton with a single - day increase approaching 11%. The sharp rise was the result of the resonance of four core factors: geopolitical conflicts, tight supply - demand fundamentals, capital - driven short - squeezing, and positive macro - expectations, which reversed the previous weak market pattern and triggered a chain reaction in the black - series industrial chain [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts - Qatar's LNG facilities were attacked and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was tense, raising concerns about global LNG supply. Asian countries turned to coal for power generation, increasing the demand for coal and boosting the valuation of coking coal [5]. - The increase in natural gas prices led to an increase in the demand for coal - fired power generation, raising the valuation of coking coal and thermal coal [5]. - The conflict in the Middle East pushed up the price of methanol, improving the profit of coking by - products, increasing the willingness of coking enterprises to start production, and thus increasing the demand for coking coal [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - On the supply side, domestic coking coal supply was tight. Stricter safety and environmental inspections limited coal production, and imports could not effectively make up for the supply gap [8]. - On the demand side, it was the peak season after the Two Sessions. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, steel demand recovered, and steel prices rose. The inventory of coking coal in major links was at a low level, and the demand for replenishment increased, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch [9]. - The spot price of coking coal was higher than the futures price, providing strong support for the futures price to rise [13]. 3.3 Capital - Driven Factors - The coking coal 2605 contract had experienced a continuous decline before, and the expectation of a rebound had accumulated. On March 23, it broke through the key resistance level, attracting technical funds to enter the market. The increase in trading volume and open interest led to a short - squeezing situation, accelerating the rise [14]. - The increase was mainly driven by institutional main funds. The top 10 long - position seats increased their positions significantly, and the concentration of funds continued to rise, making the rise explosive [19]. 3.4 Positive Macro - Expectations - Since 2026, domestic growth - stabilizing policies have been continuously strengthened, and positive policies in infrastructure and real estate have been implemented. The industrial economic data from January to February exceeded expectations, enhancing market confidence in economic recovery [20]. - Black - series commodities benefited from the economic recovery, and the market risk appetite increased. The allocation value of commodities as anti - inflation assets was highlighted, and overseas funds flowed into the domestic commodity market, promoting the rise of coking coal [20]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - In the short term, the coking coal 2605 contract has strong upward momentum, but three core variables need to be closely monitored: the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation, changes in the domestic coking coal supply - demand pattern, and capital flow trends [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to price fluctuations in various commodities [1][2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, while medium - to long - term trends depend on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic conditions [11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Affected by external disturbances and low market sentiment, the stock index has been continuously adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short - term, and it is relatively strong in the medium - to long - term [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Inflation concerns caused by the Middle East situation and high oil prices suppress long - term bond trends, while short - term bonds benefit from stable capital. If the stock market decline expands, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion sentiment [2]. Container Shipping on European Routes The market has entered a high - level wide - range shock. The core logic has shifted from trading geopolitical conflicts to weighing risk premiums and the reality of the off - season. Near - month contracts are subject to repeated games between events and spot markets, and far - month contracts price in long - term conflicts, with high volatility risks [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, leading to inflation concerns. The shift in monetary policy expectations suppresses platinum and palladium prices. There are short - term price fluctuations [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Reversal of the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations, rising US dollar index and real interest rates of US bonds, and the escalation of Middle East conflicts have put pressure on gold and silver prices. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short - term [5]. - **Copper**: Tightening macro - expectations and weak industrial reality have caused copper prices to break through key ranges. In the short - term, the price remains weak, and in the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to marginal changes in macro - expectations and industrial supply - demand [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical factors initially pushed up prices, but then concerns about economic recession and liquidity tightening, along with a significant cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, have made aluminum prices fluctuate weakly. There is a possibility of price increases if raw material shortages lead to more production cuts [6]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity has declined, narrowing the oversupply situation, but new production capacity in Guangxi has brought supply pressure. Overseas, geopolitical factors in the Middle East have affected orders, and shipping costs have risen. The fundamentals are mixed, and cost and policy expectations provide phased support [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It strongly follows the price of Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below due to raw material shortages and the impact of tax refund policies [7]. - **Zinc**: The price is at the lower end of the range, with some support from downstream purchases. The supply pressure from domestic smelting is increasing, and the demand recovery is delayed. In the short - term, it runs weakly [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Fluctuate following macro - guidance. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict have put pressure on prices. The fundamentals are in a more intense game, and attention should be paid to demand release and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Tin**: Suppressed by both macro - panic sentiment and fundamentals. In the short - term, there is no obvious turning point, and in the medium - to long - term, the price center moves upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Polysilicon has entered a loss - making range. The current is the bottom of the production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to production - capacity clearance and supply - demand optimization [10]. - **Lead**: The price fluctuates and adjusts. The supply side brings upward pressure, and the demand side recovers slowly. The price oscillates within a range [10]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran have pushed up oil and coking coal prices, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils form upward pressure. The short - term rebound height is limited [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The cost side provides support, but in the medium - to long - term, new production capacity will make the fundamentals looser [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There is a short - term surplus of coking coal, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [12]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hurricane disturbances in Australia have affected manganese ore shipments, and coking coal provides cost support. The demand for ferroalloys from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, with large de - stocking pressure [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and short - term upward momentum still exists. The price fluctuates at a high level [13]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have restricted the inflow of regional oil. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has tightened significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply gap will support the spot premium and refinery profits in the short - term [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances have led to short - term price increases in crude oil, and in the short - term, geopolitical factors are the core determinants [14]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have provided cost support, and there are risks of reduced production in refineries. The market is short - term volatile and strong [15]. - **LPG**: The futures price has risen significantly driven by capital sentiment. The fundamentals provide limited support, and it enters a high - level shock in the short - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The situation in Iran threatens production and transportation, and geopolitical games are the core logic. The supply - demand pattern is dominated by geopolitics, and device uncertainties increase volatility [16]. - **PP and Propylene**: The fundamentals are still strong, and they are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend before the geopolitical risks are eliminated [17]. - **Plastic**: If the conflict continues, it is expected to run strongly; if the situation eases, some risk premiums will be withdrawn, but it is difficult to fall back to the pre - event level in the short - term [17]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber has risen significantly driven by energy costs and geopolitics, while natural rubber is under pressure from weak macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand structure supports the valuation [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains high, and the demand is stable but weak. The inventory performance is better than expected, and the price movement is restricted by supply - demand and macro - factors [18]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The price oscillates under the combined action of supply - demand and cost [19][20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply has tightened marginally, and the demand has improved marginally. The overall supply - demand pattern has improved, and the futures price is jointly driven by fundamentals and market sentiment [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The market is in a complex game stage. In the short - term, the hog price may continue to bottom around 10 yuan/kg, and the subsequent trend depends on whether cash - flow pressure can force capacity out - clearing [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April has been postponed. In the short - term, the spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is being repaired [21]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The price of crude oil is the core influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia and the US [22]. - **Cotton**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to crude - oil fluctuations and increased macro - risks. In the short - term, the price has fallen, but in the medium - to long - term, the downstream demand has resilience, and the lower support is stable [23]. - **Sugar**: The expected sugar production in Brazil has been lowered, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has made capital cautious. The domestic supply - demand pattern is stable, and the sugar price oscillates [23]. - **Egg**: The supply of small - sized eggs is tight in some areas, and the feed price provides cost support. The short - term price adjusts slightly, and the upward space is limited [24]. - **Apple**: The Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is progressing, and the market is polarized. The fundamentals and delivery logic support the futures price, which maintains a strong - oscillating pattern [24]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side, and the downstream sales are mediocre. The price is under pressure and may oscillate at a low level [25].

Report Title - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report: Strong Cost Support, Oscillating Bullishly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For plastics, with continuous tight ethylene supply, increasing supply maintenance, and a 35% increase in Northeast Asian ethylene to $1350/ton, the cost support is strong. Before the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to continue the bullish trend, with buying on dips as the main strategy [4] - For PP, the PDH profit is compressed to a historical low, and the maintenance intensity is expected to increase. Before the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to continue the bullish trend, and PP can be the preferred long - position variety in the olefin sector [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Plastic**: In the 12th week, it continued to oscillate bullishly. It opened slightly lower at 8344 on Monday, fell to the weekly low of 8288, then rose and fell back. From Tuesday to Wednesday, the chemical market sentiment cooled, and the volatility decreased. On Thursday, affected by the attack on the Pars gas field, it gapped up 269 to 8700, reached a maximum of 9147, and finally closed at 8818, with an amplitude of 859 [3][13] - **PP**: In the 12th week, it also continued to oscillate bullishly. It opened slightly lower at 8550 on Monday, fell to the weekly low of 8447, then rose and fell back. On Thursday, affected by the attack on the Pars gas field, it gapped up 377 to 9005, reached a maximum of 9348, with an amplitude of 901 [7][16] 2. Capital - As of Thursday this week, the main contract position of PP was 360,000 lots, and that of PE was 340,000 lots [20][22] 3. Basis - As of Thursday this week, the main contract basis of plastic was - 567 yuan/ton, and that of PP was - 303 yuan/ton [25] 4. Month - to - Month Spread - As of Thursday this week, the L59 spread was 235 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 513 yuan/ton [28] 5. Cross - Variety Spread - As of Thursday this week, the LP05 spread was - 201 yuan/ton, and the MTO05 spread was - 377 yuan/ton [33] 6. Industry Chain - The cost side has strong support, and both ethylene and propylene monomers have strengthened rapidly [35] 7. Production and Capacity Utilization - **PE**: This week's output was 660,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 88%, declining for 4 consecutive weeks and reaching a 5 - year low. Some refineries reduced their loads due to raw material issues [51] - **PP**: This week's output was 730,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The capacity utilization rate was 70%, and some PDH plants began to restart [54] 8. Import and Export - **PE**: In 2025, the monthly average import volume was 1.16 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8.4%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year decreases of LL, LD, and HD were 4.7%, 8.2%, and 11.8% respectively. The monthly average export volume was 70,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 22%) [60] - **PP**: From January to February 2025, the monthly average import volume was 250,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 13.4%), and the monthly average export volume was 270,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 30%). The export profit soared [62][63] 9. Demand - In 2025, the monthly average export value of plastics and products was $12.6 billion (year - on - year increase of 21%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14% [74] 10. Inventory - **PE**: This week's commercial inventory was 1.24 million tons (week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons) [76] - **PP**: This week's commercial inventory was 860,000 tons (week - on - week decrease of 77,000 tons), and it has been accelerating inventory reduction for 3 consecutive weeks [76] 11. Propylene Market Review - **Supply**: PDH operation rate is still at a low level compared to the same period [97] - **Demand**: There is significant negative feedback from downstream [99] - **Inventory**: It remains at a high level [102] Strategies For Plastics - **Single - side trading**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of 8700 - 9700 yuan/ton for L2605 [6] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the calendar spread long position [6] - **Hedging**: At a low basis, opportunistically conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [6] - **Options**: With the VIX at a historical high, the previous long positions can opportunistically sell call options to realize profits [6] For PP - **Single - side trading**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of 8900 - 9900 yuan/ton for PP2605 [10] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the calendar spread long position [10] - **Hedging**: At a low basis, opportunistically conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [10] - **Options**: With the VIX at a historical high, the previous long positions can opportunistically sell call options to realize profits [10]