中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘持续扰动，霍尔木兹海峡运行受阻，油价短期偏强。地缘：伊朗 | | 原油 | | 革命卫队指挥官顾问宣称霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁，关注后续通行情况；重 | | ★★ | 谨慎看多 | 要驱动：3 月 1 日，OPEC+召开会议，将于 4 月份增产 20.6 万桶/日；关 | | | | 注变量：中东地缘走势，OPEC+实际产量，美国原油产量。不建议追涨， | | | | 建议期权双买策略。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气走势偏强。成本端油价偏强，同时伊朗丙烷出口受阻， | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 国内从伊朗进口丙烷占比 30%，成本端提振。供需双增，商品量与下游 | | ★★ | | 化工开工率均上升，库存端偏利空，港口与厂库连续上升。不建议继续追 | | | | 涨，建议期权双买策略。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，夜盘 5-9 月间价差走强，预计短期盘面偏强震荡。2025 | | L | | 年我国自波斯湾 5 国进口 LL 为 167 万吨（占比 35%） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 与灯谜的约会 宝城期货 陈栋 每年的元宵节，杭州的夜是被灯火浸软的。钱江新城的写字楼群还亮着零星的窗灯，像极了交易盘面 上未平仓的头寸，而我夹在下班的人潮里，将满屏的原油曲线与 M1 增速抛在身后，向着河坊街的方向， 赴一场灯火与灯谜的约会。 作为一名沉淀能源化工期货多年的分析师，我的日子总在"地缘政治"的风云与"供需基本面"的推 演中流转。写过三万字的深度报告，算过无数次基差的涨跌，却在元宵这日，格外贪恋市井间的烟火气。 傍晚的河坊街，青石板路被灯笼映得暖红，胡庆余堂的药香混着桂花元宵的甜糯，漫过熙熙攘攘的人群。 今年的灯谜会，竟藏着不少"行业暗语"，像是有人专门为我们这群期货人备下的考题。我站在一盏 荷瓣形油纸灯下，盯着谜面出神："潮涨潮落随大势，买空卖空定盈亏（打一金融品类）"。身旁刚做完 套期保值方案的产业客户老李，捻着胡须笑："这还不简单，咱们天天打交道的期货嘛！"话音未落，不 远处传来一阵欢呼，原来是做风险管理的同事，猜中了"守住底线不踏空，划定红线避风险"的谜底—— 正是我们日日挂在嘴边的"止损线"。 这些平日里冰冷的专业术 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，外盘油价走强，节后首日内盘大概率高开补涨。地缘：地 | | 原油 | | 缘政治主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核 | | ★ | 看多 | 心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+ | | | 将于 | 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘 | | | | 进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG ★ | 看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | | | 春节期间现货信息停滞，预计节后开盘跟随成本端震荡偏强。节前标品装 | | L | 反弹 | 置陆续回归，基差持续偏弱震荡，两油石化库存降至 46 万吨，处于 5 年 | | ★ | | 同期最低位，预计节后石化库存累库至 90 万吨左右。后市检修力度并不 | | | ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】Mysteel调研显示，截至2月20日，建材市 场仍未启动，部分重点项目工地预计近两天陆续开工，其余大 部分项目则要等到2月22日后才开始恢复施工。评：综合来看， 预计节后钢价将在钢厂惯性推涨、低库存与成本支撑下迎来短 暂 "开门红"，但需求恢复节奏、钢厂复产进度及库存消化情 况将成为关键变量。后续市场大概率进入震荡调整阶段，行情 持续性依赖需求实际释放强度，短期震荡偏多运行。 【短评-白银】由于一场严重的冬季风暴席卷美国东北部， 导致航班取消和延误，美国国会众议院和参议院均将本周的首 轮投票推迟至2月24日。此次投票推迟正值部分美政府部门"停 摆"之际，美国国土安全部也受到影响。美国总统特朗普将于 24日在国会大厦发表国情咨文。评：节假日期间美股震荡走 低，市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银做多力量小于黄金。关注后 续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震 荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月24日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z001 ...

石油股早盘普跌，截至发稿，中石化(00386)跌4.06%，报5.43港元；中石油(00857)跌3.28%，报9.15港 元；中海油服（601808）(02883)跌3.06%，报9.49港元；中海油(00883)跌2.79%，报24.42港元。 银河期货高级研究员赵若晨表示，市场的交易逻辑从"地缘优先"切回"供需优先"的临界点在于美伊谈判 取得实质性成果，若达成短期框架，油价或大幅回吐地缘溢价，而再次交易供应过剩的基本面。而库存 持续的大幅增长、OPEC+超预期的增产以及需求的走弱都会压制原油价格上方空间。 消息面上，周四，WTI原油期货收跌2.77%，报62.84美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收跌2.71%，报67.52美 元/桶。美国总统特朗普当地时间2月12日表示，美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议，否则局势将"非常严重"。 特朗普称希望美伊"一个月左右"达成协议。此外，EIA最新数据显示，截至2月6日当周，美国原油库存 激增853万桶，创下自去年1月以来最大单周增幅。 ...

引言：寒波骤起金属调，美股承压美元稳；锡价深调迎新春，蓄力节后启新程。今日长江现货市场 1# 锡大幅回落，成为今日金属市场焦点，本文结合宏观热点、供需基本面与产业动态，解读下跌逻辑与后 市方向。 今日长江现货 1# 锡报价 377250-379250 元 / 吨，均价 378250 元 / 吨，单日下跌 15750 元 / 吨，跌幅达 4.0%，领跌基本金属板块。锡价受宏观情绪与节前淡季双重冲击，高位快速回调，市场避险情绪显著 升温。 国内锡业龙头企业受益于前期锡价高位运行，全年业绩同比大幅增长，盈利表现亮眼；春节期间企业维 持稳健生产节奏，以合理控制库存、保障订单交付为核心，暂无大幅调价动作，整体经营策略稳中有 序，未对市场价格形成额外扰动。 五、操作策略与走势预判 节前操作需严控仓位、轻仓观望，切勿盲目抄底，重点防范春节假期海外市场波动带来的潜在风险；短 期锡价仍存在回调压力，需重点关注 37 万元 / 吨关键支撑位，若海外宏观情绪逐步缓和，价格下跌动 能将明显衰减；节后需紧盯下游企业复工节奏与补库需求，待供需基本面改善后，锡价有望迎来稳步修 复行情。 一、行情直击：锡价领跌有色，单日重挫超万元 二、宏观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious view on the energy and chemical industries, with many commodities having a "cautious" or "bearish" outlook [5]. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical impact on oil prices is weakening, and prices are returning to fundamental pricing. Most energy and chemical commodities are facing various challenges such as oversupply, seasonal demand weakness, and high inventory [1][2][3]. - Some commodities like PX/PTA have a positive outlook in terms of future demand and valuation, while others like LPG, L, PP, etc., are expected to face downward pressure or remain in a weak - balanced state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainty remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists with oversupply and a coming demand淡季 [1]. - **Price Data**: WTI主力 at $62.84/barrel (-2.77%), Brent主力 at $67.52/barrel (-2.71%), SC主力 at 481 yuan/barrel (+1.07%) [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: IEA expects 2026 global oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (down 0.1 million from last month), and demand to grow by 0.85 million barrels per day (up from last month). US crude and product inventories are increasing [11]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand situation will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. SC is recommended to be watched in the range of [450 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. It lacks short - term drivers and follows oil price fluctuations. Cost support is weakening, and inventory is rising [1]. - **Price Data**: PG2603 at 4295 yuan/ton (+0.75%), PG2604 at 4564 yuan/ton (-0.09%), PG2605 at 4476 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the inventory is bearish with rising port inventory [1]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price is expected to decline due to oversupply of upstream crude oil. In the short - term, due to oil price uncertainty, the fundamental is bearish. PG is recommended to be watched in the range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The cost of crude oil is falling, and the basis is weak. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to be cautious during the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: L05 (主力) at 6734 yuan/ton (-0.8%) [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: Linear production is at a high level, and supply is expected to continue to increase with the restart of some devices [20]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. L is recommended to be watched in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. There is a lack of supply - demand drivers before the holiday, and the supply pressure has eased with a certain cost support [1]. - **Price Data**: PP05 (主力) at 6648 yuan/ton (-0.7%) [22]. - **Supply - Demand**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 17.5%. PDH profit is low, providing cost support [24]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. PP is recommended to be watched in the range of [6550 - 6700] [24]. PVC - **Core View**: Range - bound. The cost support is weakening, and high inventory restricts the upside. It is expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: V05 (主力) at 4938 yuan/ton (-1.0%) [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory is difficult to reverse [28]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation, and PVC is recommended to be watched in the range of [4850 - 5000] [28]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish. Valuation is relatively reasonable, and the future outlook is positive despite short - term seasonal demand weakness [2]. - **Price Data**: TA05 at 5166 (at the 85.7% percentile in the past 3 months) [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is affected by device maintenance, and demand is seasonally weak with some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to capital actions, and consider buying on significant pullbacks for TA05 in the range of [5168 - 5268] [31]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Valuation is low, and the short - term demand is weak, but the situation is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - **Price Data**: EG05 at 3959 yuan/ton [32]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak with inventory accumulation in January - February [33]. - **Strategy**: The price is bottom - grinding, and long positions can be considered on dips for EG05 in the range of [3690 - 3760] [34]. Methanol - **Core View**: Short - term bearish. The de - stocking slope is slowing, and the fundamental is slightly loose [3]. - **Price Data**: Methanol主力 at a high valuation (73% in the past 3 months), comprehensive profit at - 250.9 yuan/ton [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is at a high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. Demand has stopped falling [37]. - **Strategy**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Long positions can be held for MA05 in the range of [2225 - 2255] [39]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously avoid chasing long. Valuation is not low, and the short - term demand is weakening [4]. - **Price Data**: URO5 at 1777 yuan/ton, URO9 at 1754 yuan/ton, URO1 at 1690 yuan/ton [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is under pressure with high production, and demand is entering a holiday off - season [41][42]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing long. UR05 is recommended to be watched in the range of [1790 - 1820] [43]. LNG - **Core View**: Range - bound. The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and exports are increasing [7]. - **Price Data**: NG主力 at $3.234/million British thermal units (+2.24%) [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: US export decreased in January, and the rig count increased. Japanese import decreased in 2025 [46]. - **Strategy**: The demand support is weakening as the cold wave fades. NG is recommended to be watched in the range of [2.900 - 3.400] [47]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The demand is in the off - season, and the valuation is high [7]. - **Price Data**: BU2603 (主力) at 3327 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [48]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is decreasing in February, and inventory is increasing [50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be aware of geopolitical risks. BU is recommended to be watched in the range of [3200 - 3300] [51]. Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation. The daily melting volume is declining, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance [7]. - **Price Data**: FG05 (主力) at 1065 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: Demand is in the off - season, and high inventory needs further supply reduction [55]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling. FG is recommended to be watched in the range of [1040 - 1090] [55]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The enterprise inventory is increasing, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Price Data**: SA05 (主力) at 1162 yuan/ton (-1.4%) [57]. - **Supply - Demand**: Floating glass demand is falling, and new production capacity is added. Supply is under pressure [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before further intensification of maintenance. SA is recommended to be watched in the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-12 品种晨会纪要 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong support for silver prices due to robust supply-demand fundamentals and increased investment and hedging demand, leading to a recent rise in silver prices [1][2] - Analysts note that the silver market is experiencing a structural transformation in demand, particularly from industries like AI and semiconductors, which is expected to significantly boost silver demand [2] - The supply of primary silver is constrained, as it heavily relies on the production of other metals like copper, lead, and zinc, making it difficult to expand output independently [2] Group 2 - Domestic silver-related enterprises are adopting various strategies to manage price volatility, including technological innovations and the use of derivatives [3] - The rising silver prices are creating challenges for downstream industries, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and silver jewelry, where increased procurement costs are compressing profit margins [3][4] - Downstream companies are addressing risks primarily through two methods: reducing silver usage via technological upgrades and utilizing financial derivatives for hedging against price fluctuations [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **MEG**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fluctuating, causing short-term oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. However, the oversupply pattern remains unturned, and with the arrival of the off-season for demand, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][9]. - **LPG**: Cost support is weakening, and the chemical demand is also decreasing, leading to a weakening of LPG [1]. - **L**: Upstream inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish [1][20]. - **PP**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support [1][24]. - **PVC**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday [1][28]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation level is reasonable. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. Although there is some inventory accumulation in January - February, the outlook is positive [2][30]. - **MEG**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [2][33]. - **Methanol**: The social and port inventories are decreasing. The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [3][37]. - **Urea**: The overall profit is good, and the start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [3][41]. - **Natural Gas**: The cold wave has weakened, and the export volume has increased. The short - term demand boost from the cold wave has been priced in, and the supply side is recovering, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gas prices [6]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of oil prices is oscillating and adjusting, and the basis is weak. The disk valuation is high, and the short - term trend is weak. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [6]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [6][57]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure [6][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were oscillatory and slightly stronger. WTI rose 1.27%, Brent rose 1.45%, and the domestic SC rose 0.06% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with high uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the US crude oil production is increasing. The demand side: India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. The inventory side: US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline inventories increased, and distillate inventories decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is oscillatory and adjusting, with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The SC range is [465 - 485] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 9, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decrease. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4470 (+20) yuan/ton, 4475 (+0) yuan/ton, and 4765 (-65) yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - side oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical disturbances, but are under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The number of warehouse receipts has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - side oil prices have increased uncertainties. The PG range is [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract closed at 6721 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. The L05 basis was - 131 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 56 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish. The range is [6650 - 6850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton, a 0.2% increase. The PP05 basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Basic Logic**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support. The range is [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract closed at 4981 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease. The V05 basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Basic Logic**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The range is [4850 - 5050] [28]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: In terms of valuation, TA05 is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. There is some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but short - term drivers are limited. Pay attention to capital behavior. Buy on significant corrections for the 05 contract. The TA05 range is [5110 - 5220] [31]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract closed at 3959 yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 113 (-10) yuan/ton. - **Basic Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - term contracts on dips. The EG05 range is [3680 - 3780] [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The January arrival volume slightly exceeded expectations, domestic start - up is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The demand side has stopped falling. Hold long positions. The MA05 range is [2219 - 2369] [39]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. The UR05 range is [1760 - 1790] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.405 dollars/million British thermal units, a 3.16% decrease. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.030 (-0.600) dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 13.417 (+0.815) dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3821 (-75) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the impact of the US cold wave has decreased, and the demand - side support is gradually weakening, leading to a weakening of gas prices. The cost - profit situation shows a decline in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply side: US LNG exports decreased in January, and the number of natural gas rigs increased. The demand side: Japan's LNG imports decreased in 2025. The inventory side: US natural gas inventories decreased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply side is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices. The NG range is [2.900 - 3.400] [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 9, the BU main contract closed at 3324 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3210 (-30) yuan/ton, 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, and 3310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in asphalt comprehensive profit. The supply side: The domestic asphalt production in February 2026 decreased. The demand side: The asphalt import and export volume increased in 2025. The inventory side: The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about geopolitical risks. The BU range is [3300 - 3400] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract closed at 1078 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The FG05 basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to the sustainability of supply reduction. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. The FG range is [1030 - 1080] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract closed at 1181 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease. The SA05 basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure. Short - sell on rallies before further maintenance intensifies. The SA range is [1150 - 1200] [61].