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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250610
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefins are mainly in a consolidation phase. From a fundamental perspective, polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and spot prices generally perform mediocrely. The futures price fluctuations mainly follow costs and market sentiment. The recent rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling and stabilize. In the future, the driving force is limited, but due to the relatively low valuation, polyolefins may gradually stop falling and build a bottom [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7050, 7036, and 7078 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 13, 20, and 12 yuan/ton and increases of 0.18%, 0.29%, and 0.17% respectively; for PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6889, and 6932 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 16, 21, and 7 yuan/ton and increases of 0.23%, 0.31%, and 0.10% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 24038, 84, and 249544 respectively, and the open interests were 115602, 676, and 545370 respectively, with open interest changes of 2754, 33, and 1429 respectively; for PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 14698, 67, and 229503 respectively, and the open interests were 78820, 622, and 516339 respectively, with open interest changes of 231, - 9, and - 1541 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 14, - 42, and 28 respectively, compared with the previous values of 21, - 50, and 29; for PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 4, - 43, and 39 respectively, compared with the previous values of 9, - 57, and 48 [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2280 yuan/ton, 6380 yuan/ton, 605 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Information - On Monday (June 9), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.29 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.10% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.20 - $65.43; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.04 per barrel, up $0.57 or 0.86% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.07 - $67.19 [2].