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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250714
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 07:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefins declined. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable from Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season with average spot prices. Futures prices mainly followed costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle - East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, cost support weakened. Polyolefins are gradually consolidating horizontally to digest selling pressure. Future focus is on the supply contraction effect during summer plant maintenance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 34, 37, and 38 yuan respectively, with declines of - 0.46%, - 0.51%, and - 0.52%. For PP, the corresponding prices decreased by 35, 43, and 43 yuan, with declines of - 0.49%, - 0.61%, and - 0.60% [2] - **Trading Volume**: LL had trading volumes of 50879, 393, and 274059 for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures. PP had trading volumes of 31987, 671, and 241668 [2] - **Open Interest**: LL's open interest was 114403, 2066, and 432521 for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures, with changes of 1978, 186, and - 6302. PP's open interest was 106141, 4496, and 394188, with changes of - 2679, 263, and - 2015 [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 36, - 49, and 13 (previous values: 33, - 50, 17). For PP, the spreads were 17, - 32, and 15 (previous values: 9, - 32, 23) [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: Methanol futures decreased from 2400 to 2373 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased from 6415 to 6400 yuan/ton, and South China propane decreased from 577 to 567 dollars/ton. PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film prices remained unchanged [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the price ranges in East, North, and South China markets were 7200 - 7650, 7150 - 7400, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. For PP, the price ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7100, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On July 11, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $68.45 per barrel, up $1.88 or 2.82% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.36 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.51% [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250630
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 03:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season, and spot prices were generally mediocre. The futures price fluctuated more with costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices declined, weakening cost support. Future focus should be on the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7220, and 7302 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 14, and 2 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.19%, and 0.03%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7041, 7019, and 7103, with changes of - 12, - 11, and - 5 and percentage changes of - 0.17%, - 0.16%, and - 0.07%. The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 36087, 214, and 297767, and the trading volumes of PP were 34283, 90, and 223643. The open interests of LL were 115196, 1241, and 460583, and those of PP were 100898, 1141, and 425262. The changes in open interests of LL were - 2223, 57, and - 10437, and those of PP were 313, 2, and - 4105 [2] - **Spread Information**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 25, - 82, and 57, compared with previous values of 15, - 66, and 51. For PP, the current spreads were 22, - 84, and 62, compared with previous values of 23, - 78, and 55 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2397 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2419 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current spot price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the three markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (June 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.80 - $66.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.20 - $68.42 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250612
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:58
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are slightly consolidating. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices generally perform averagely. The price fluctuations of the futures market mainly follow the cost and market sentiment. The rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling. In the future, the driving force is limited, but the valuation is not high, so polyolefins may gradually stop falling, build a bottom, and attempt a rebound [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7075, 7066, and 7102 respectively. There were declines with changes of - 3, - 1, - 4 and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%. The trading volumes were 24916, 157, 253230, and the open interests were 111392, 704, 536103 with changes of - 1662, 39, 5141. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 9, - 36, 27 compared to previous values of 11, - 39, 28 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6908, 6903, and 6960 respectively. There were increases with changes of 12, 14, 19 and corresponding percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.20%, 0.27%. The trading volumes were 16043, 147, 224195, and the open interests were 78596, 709, 501412 with changes of 151, 105, - 10063. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 5, - 57, 52 compared to previous values of 7, - 52, 45 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2284 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 606 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2278 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (June 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 68.15 dollars per barrel, up 3.17 dollars or 4.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.60 - 68.37 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.77 dollars per barrel, up 2.90 dollars or 4.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 66.47 - 70.50 dollars [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250611
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins mainly showed a slight rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and spot prices generally performed mediocre. The fluctuation of futures prices is more influenced by cost and market sentiment. The rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling and stabilize. In the future, the driving force is limited, but due to the relatively low valuation, polyolefins may gradually stop falling, build a bottom, and attempt a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7078, 7067, and 7106 respectively, with increases of 28 (0.40%), 31 (0.44%), and 28 (0.40%) compared to the day before. The trading volumes were 33611, 210, and 324522, and the open interests were 113054, 665, and 530962, with decreases of 2548, 11, and 14408 respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 6896, 6889, and 6941 respectively, with increases of 3 (0.04%), 0 (0.00%), and 9 (0.13%) compared to the day before. The trading volumes were 17995, 118, and 295028, and the open interests were 78445, 604, and 511475, with decreases of 375, 18, and 4864 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 11, - 39, and 28 respectively; for PP, they were 7, - 52, and 45 respectively [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2279 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Information - On Tuesday (June 10), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.98 per barrel, down $0.31 (0.47%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.57 - $66.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.87 per barrel, down $0.17 (0.25%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.48 - $68 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250610
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 03:08
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefins are mainly in a consolidation phase. From a fundamental perspective, polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and spot prices generally perform mediocrely. The futures price fluctuations mainly follow costs and market sentiment. The recent rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling and stabilize. In the future, the driving force is limited, but due to the relatively low valuation, polyolefins may gradually stop falling and build a bottom [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7050, 7036, and 7078 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 13, 20, and 12 yuan/ton and increases of 0.18%, 0.29%, and 0.17% respectively; for PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6889, and 6932 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 16, 21, and 7 yuan/ton and increases of 0.23%, 0.31%, and 0.10% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 24038, 84, and 249544 respectively, and the open interests were 115602, 676, and 545370 respectively, with open interest changes of 2754, 33, and 1429 respectively; for PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 14698, 67, and 229503 respectively, and the open interests were 78820, 622, and 516339 respectively, with open interest changes of 231, - 9, and - 1541 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 14, - 42, and 28 respectively, compared with the previous values of 21, - 50, and 29; for PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 4, - 43, and 39 respectively, compared with the previous values of 9, - 57, and 48 [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2280 yuan/ton, 6380 yuan/ton, 605 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Information - On Monday (June 9), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.29 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.10% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.20 - $65.43; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.04 per barrel, up $0.57 or 0.86% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.07 - $67.19 [2].