交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油高位震荡，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗 普关税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两 会可能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，塑编 复工速度偏慢，bopp复工较快但面临部分成品库存压力。当前PP交割品现货价6680（+0），基本 面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2605合约基差5，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存74万吨（+34.9） ...

聚烯烃早报 2026-2-13 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-134，升贴水比例-2.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PE market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the cost - side is supported by rising oil prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and post - holiday inventory levels [1][3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. Cost - side support exists, but demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,787 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (+5). LL North China spot is 6,550 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-12), LL East China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-12), and PP East China basis is - 13 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 165.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 425.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 517.0 yuan/ton (-54.4) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 106.7 yuan/ton (+11.4), PP import profit is - 251.5 yuan/ton (+53.3), and PP export profit is - 64.1 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE Market**: The macro - sentiment is generally weakening. The plastic market fluctuates in a range. The cost - side support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply is under pressure due to more restarted devices and more imported resources, while the demand remains weak in the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP Market**: The cost - side support exists, but the supply increase is limited due to some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the rising oil prices and raw material propane provide cost support, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No operation [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-12 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-187，升贴水比例-2.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 11, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [6][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Crude oil has returned to a volatile state, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have shut down, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6600 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -175, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), which is bullish [4] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [6] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start - up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -38, with a premium - discount ratio of -0.6%, which is bearish [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is bullish [7] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [8] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polyethylene have changed. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polypropylene have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors have led to strong cost support, but the downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few overall orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6650 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -71, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has increased, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start-up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 20, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [7] Supply and Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16] Other Information - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: The report provides detailed spot and futures market data for LLDPE and PP, including prices, changes, and inventory information [9] - **Charts**: The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, inventory, and production cash flow of LLDPE and PP [10][12][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream overall start - up of polyolefins continued to decline. The polyolefin market was affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - sentiment, with the overall situation being weak. The supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP were not substantially reversed and showed signs of weakening, with large destocking pressure. The short - term disk trends were expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - level guidance and the destocking process [2][3] - For the strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the single - sided trading. For the cross - variety trading, it was advisable to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it was high [4] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - Period Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,777 yuan/ton (- 141), and the PP main contract closed at 6,676 yuan/ton (- 125). The LL North China spot was 6,650 yuan/ton (- 80), the LL East China spot was 6,850 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP East China spot was 6,680 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 127 yuan/ton (+ 61), the LL East China basis was 73 yuan/ton (+ 141), and the PP East China basis was 4 yuan/ton (+ 125) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 85.9% (+ 0.6%), and the PP operating rate was 73.9% (- 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 88.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 498.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 450.8 yuan/ton (- 88.0) [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not elaborated on specific data in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 13.2 yuan/ton (+ 54.6), the PP import profit was - 282.1 yuan/ton (+ 4.7), and the PP export profit was - 60.1 US dollars/ton (+ 19.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 30.2% (- 4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 38.8% (- 3.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 36.7% (- 5.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.6% (+ 0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on specific data in the text

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: February 6, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, and their futures prices are expected to fluctuate today [4][7] - The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support for polyolefins [4][7] - The downstream demand for both LLDPE and PP is weak, and the supply-demand relationship is sensitive to marginal changes [6][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended its production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil price is strong and volatile, driving the polyolefins with poor device profits and strong cost support to follow the fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment and crude oil situation affect PP. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,650 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -26, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000 tons), showing a relatively high level [7] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [16] Other Information - The report also includes data on spot prices, futures prices, inventory changes, production cash flows, and internal and external price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as corresponding trend charts [9][10][12][17][19][21][23][25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side of PE and PP is disturbed by factors such as the rebound of international oil prices and propane, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the disk tending to fluctuate. The supply - demand fundamentals of both are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The short - term disk rebound sustainability needs to pay attention to the macro - level guidance and the de - stocking process [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the unilateral strategy, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+53), PP main contract at 6801 yuan/ton (+71). LL North China spot was 6730 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6850 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 188 yuan/ton (-53), LL East China basis - 68 yuan/ton (-3), PP East China basis - 121 yuan/ton (-71) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 85.4% (+0.7%), PP operating rate 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 16.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PP oil - based production profit - 343.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PDH - based PP production profit - 362.8 yuan/ton (+25.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 41.4 yuan/ton (-52.8), PP import profit - 286.8 yuan/ton (-2.9), PP export profit - 79.5 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 42.0% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 64.2% (+0.2%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of international oil prices. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. The supply pressure is expected to rise due to the restart of many devices and more incoming resources. The demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2] - **PP**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of propane and international oil prices. The supply is difficult to be significantly supported, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the disk is affected by the cost and macro - sentiment [2] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for L/PP, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the short - term cost side fluctuates strongly, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-5 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。近期受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，原油走势偏强，带动装置利润差、成本支撑强的聚烯烃跟 随波动。供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，停工放假企业增多，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样订单 偏少。当前LL交割品现货价6750（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-168，升贴水比例-2.4%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存40.3万吨（+5.4），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...