申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

聚烯烃周报： 旺季陆续启动，逢低试多 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/8/24 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 PE：社会库存转为去库，震荡偏强 【下周展望】 近期基本面改善，社会库存去化。供给端变动不大，暂无新增扩能压力，7月进口量为111万吨，累 计同比+2.5%，进口压力缓解。需求端，农膜陆续转为旺季，开工率连续5周上涨。目前产业链整体 库存压力不大，企业库存位于同期高位，社会库存及下游原料库存均处于同期中性偏低水平。 策略： 风险提示：1）上行风险：原油大幅上涨，宏观利好政策超预期；2）下行风险：原油大幅下跌，需 求不及预期。 2 1）单边：回调做多。L2601关注区间【7350-7550】。 2）套利：塑料近期检修力度更高，多LP01套利继续持有。 3）套保：基差同期低位，产业客户可择机卖保。 PP：供给持续攀升，跟随板块区间反弹 【本周回顾】 本周回顾：本周L2601合约在7243至7413宽幅震荡，振幅170点，周线2连阳。上周五夜盘开盘价为 7352，随后一路 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期 产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜整体需求不及预期，膜类开工偏低。当前LL交割品现货 价7300（+70），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-80，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.4万吨（+5.9），偏空； • 4. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃周报 2025-8-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 期现走势 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 6600 7100 7600 8100 8600 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 2025/7/1 坐标轴标题 L期现价格及基差 L基差 L主力收盘 L现货标准品 • 本周概要： • 聚烯烃周评：上周L01上涨0.39%，收于7380，合计减仓约22000张。PP01下跌0.65%收于7038，合 计增仓约45000张。技术上看，近期L、PP主力合约在20日均线附 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Domestically, the macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - and late August. The market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes in supply and cost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7386, 7383, and 7331 respectively, with increases of 39 (0.53%), 43 (0.59%), and 23 (0.31%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 381879, 6260, and 52643 respectively, and the open interests were 386389, 21714, and 75937 respectively, with changes of +4826, +1249, and - 14155 [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7048, 7068, and 7016 respectively, with changes of - 8 (-0.11%), +6 (0.08%), and - 10 (-0.14%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 252769, 12288, and 31224 respectively, and the open interests were 453181, 32678, and 54053 respectively, with changes of +10598, +837, and - 7840 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 3, 52, and - 55 respectively (previous values: 7, 32, - 39). For PP, the spreads were - 20, 52, and - 32 respectively (previous values: - 6, 36, - 30) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2428 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, Shandong propylene increased, while others remained stable [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: In the mid - stream spot market, the price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The price ranges of PP in these three markets were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (August 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, up $0.81 (1.29%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.67 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.24%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.74 - $67.80 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin futures closed positive yesterday. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled down, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The future market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes on the supply side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7347, 7340, and 7308 respectively, with increases of 40, 49, and 40 and涨幅 of 0.55%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7056, 7062, and 7026 respectively, with increases of 40, 30, and 39 and涨幅 of 0.57%, 0.43%, and 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 400529, 7534, and 95001 respectively, and the open interests were 381563, 20465, and 90092 respectively. The open interest changes were 21423, 1614, and - 35644 respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the trading volumes were 341106, 14955, and 58830 respectively, the open interests were 442583, 31841, and 61893 respectively, and the open interest changes were 25989, 2844, and - 19500 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 7, 32, and - 39 respectively, compared with previous values of 16, 23, and - 39. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 36, and - 30 respectively, compared with previous values of - 16, 45, and - 29 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2427 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, the current price ranges of linear LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝 PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Wednesday (August 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.21 per barrel, up $0.86 or 1.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $63.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.84 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.06 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested after the previous rebound. The short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the destocking process in summer is tortuous. However, domestic demand is the main driver at the macro level, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in the middle and late August. The focus should be on the autumn stocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion and the potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Futures Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7307, 7291, and 7268 respectively, with changes of - 27, - 21, and - 24 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.37%, - 0.29%, and - 0.33% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7016, 7032, and 6987 respectively, with changes of - 32, - 16, and - 39 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.45%, - 0.23%, and - 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 195031, 3873, and 54494 respectively, and the open interests were 360140, 18851, and 125736 respectively, with changes of 18234, 761, and - 22109 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 198360, 7393, and 50844 respectively, and the open interests were 416594, 28997, and 81393 respectively, with changes of 24874, 1950, and - 18050 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are 16, 23, and - 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 22, 20, and - 42. For PP, the current price spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 16, 45, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, 22, and - 22 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2395 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Intermediate and Final Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (August 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.35 per barrel, down $1.07 or 1.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.25 - $63.39. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.79 per barrel, down $0.81 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.61 - $66.58 [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the polyolefin (LL&PP) futures and spot markets, providing data on prices, trading volumes, and inventories, along with market analysis and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It is in a stage of stopping the decline after the previous rebound. The destocking process in summer is tortuous, but the terminal备货 demand may pick up in mid - to late August. The key is to focus on the autumn stocking market rhythm and potential cost changes [2]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7334, 7312, and 7292 respectively, with declines of - 17, - 34, and - 14 and percentage drops of - 0.23%, - 0.46%, and - 0.19%. For PP, the closing prices were 7048, 7048, and 7026, with declines of - 36, - 32, and - 32 and percentage drops of - 0.51%, - 0.45%, and - 0.45% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210483, 3872, and 77466. The open interests were 341906, 18090, and 147845, with changes of 23091, 1252, and - 25485. For PP, the trading volumes were 198520, 7133, and 56805. The open interests were 391720, 27047, and 99443, with changes of 28363, 1051, and - 11273 [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 22, 20, and - 42, compared to previous values of 5, 40, and - 45. For PP, the current spreads were 0, 22, and - 22, compared to previous values of 4, 22, and - 26 [2]. Group 5: Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. - **Intermediate Products**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. Group 6: News - On August 18, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.42 per barrel, up $0.62 or 0.99% from the previous day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.60 per barrel, up $0.75 or 1.14% from the previous day [2].

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 20250818申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃周报 2025-8-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 本周概要： • 聚烯烃周评：上周L01上涨0.1%，收于7351，合计减仓约6100张。PP01下跌0.1%收于7084，合计 减仓约6300张。技术上看，近期L、PP主力合约运行于20日均线下，技术走势偏空。 • 大越五大指标中的主力持仓显示，近期L、PP高胜率席位净持仓均偏空。 • L主力合约基差-101 ，PP主力合约基差16，主力合约基差收窄。 • 基本面来看：宏观方面， 7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预 ...