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在动荡时代 重新思考发展问题
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 17:02
Core Insights - The global economic landscape has significantly changed for many developing countries, facing challenges such as growth slowdown, supply chain disruptions, reduced aid flows, and increased financial market volatility [1][2] - The traditional US-centered global economic and financial order is being fundamentally adjusted, leading to a series of factors that will greatly impact the welfare of developing countries and the fate of multilateral institutions [1][2] Group 1: Factors Affecting Developing Countries - The existing order fails to integrate rapidly expanding developing nations, leading to political and economic disconnection [1][2] - The US has shifted from a stabilizing force to a source of turmoil, exacerbated by events like the 2008 financial crisis and the weaponization of tariffs [2][3] - Despite these challenges, developing countries have managed to navigate the changing landscape relatively well due to significant policy achievements [2][3] Group 2: Policy Priorities for Developing Countries - Maintaining macroeconomic stability while addressing structural and financial vulnerabilities is crucial [2][3] - Strengthening international connections to enhance resilience and flexibility requires years of coordinated efforts [2][3] - Preparing to leverage innovations, particularly in AI, to improve productivity in traditional sectors and enhance human capital investment returns is essential [3][4] Group 3: Role of Multilateral Institutions - Multilateral institutions like the World Bank should play a vital role in helping members adopt new practices and technologies to improve health, education, and productivity outcomes [3][4] - Encouraging regional trade connections and cross-border infrastructure projects is necessary to adapt to frequent global shocks [4][5] - Strengthening emergency financing mechanisms and risk-sharing tools is critical in a world shaped by increasing disruptions [4][5]
剑桥大学女王学院院长埃里安:在动荡时代重新思考发展问题
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 13:18
Group 1 - The global economic and financial order, historically centered around the United States, is undergoing significant changes due to various adverse factors affecting developing countries [1][2] - Three main factors disrupting the existing order include insufficient attention to destabilizing distribution outcomes, the inability to integrate rapidly expanding developing powers, and the shift of the U.S. from a stabilizing force to a source of turmoil [2][3] - Developing countries have managed to navigate the changing landscape relatively well, largely due to policy achievements that have strengthened macroeconomic frameworks and institutions over recent decades [2][3] Group 2 - To maintain positive momentum in a challenging external environment, developing countries must prioritize four key policy areas: maintaining macroeconomic stability, enhancing international connections, leveraging innovation, and reassessing asset allocations away from U.S. assets [3][4] - Strengthening international ties is essential for resilience, flexibility, and expanding options, requiring years of coordinated efforts to unify regulations and promote regional financial integration [3][4] - The potential of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies presents a unique opportunity for inclusive economic growth, but developing countries must create conditions for efficient and equitable innovation adoption [5] Group 3 - Multilateral institutions like the World Bank and regional development banks can play a crucial role in assisting member countries in adopting innovative practices to improve health, education, and productivity outcomes [4] - These institutions need to enhance their capabilities to disseminate best practices regarding new technologies and encourage regional trade connections and cross-border infrastructure projects [4] - There is an urgent need to strengthen emergency financing mechanisms and risk-sharing tools in a world increasingly shaped by frequent shocks [4]