国际货币体系重置
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美元霸权龟裂,加速世界货币体系重置
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 05:22
Core Viewpoint - The unilateral and bullying economic policies of the United States are accelerating the restructuring of the international monetary system, providing rare opportunities for the rise of other currencies, although the dollar's status remains sticky [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline - As of the end of Q2 2025, the dollar's share in global disclosed foreign exchange reserves fell from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 1.46 percentage point decline and the lowest level in 30 years [1]. - The decline in dollar reserves is influenced by a significant depreciation of the dollar index and a decrease in foreign official interest in dollar assets, with net purchases of U.S. securities dropping to $5.1 billion, a 94.4% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Opportunities for Other Currencies - The economic policies of the U.S. are dismantling the "American exceptionalism" narrative and expanding the cracks in dollar credibility, creating opportunities for other currencies to rise [2]. - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has discussed enhancing the international status of the euro amid a shift towards fragmentation and protectionism in the global economy [2]. - The People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng has also highlighted the importance of a multipolar development in global financial governance, which could strengthen policy constraints for sovereign currencies [2]. Group 3: Diversification of Reserve Assets - Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, gold has become the biggest beneficiary of the diversification of international reserve assets, surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar, with a share of approximately 24% by Q2 2025 [2]. - From early 2022 to Q2 2025, the dollar's share in global disclosed foreign exchange reserves decreased by 2.47 percentage points, while the share of other undisclosed currencies increased by 2.08 percentage points, indicating a shift in reserve currency dynamics [3]. Group 4: Currency Internationalization - Despite the decline in the dollar's share, its status remains sticky, with the dollar accounting for 89.2% of global OTC foreign exchange trading in April 2025, an increase of 0.84 percentage points from three years prior [3]. - The euro and pound have seen significant declines in their shares, while the yuan, Hong Kong dollar, and Swiss franc have gained ground in internationalization [3]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - To match China's economic influence, it is essential to steadily advance the internationalization of the RMB, which includes enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets and aligning domestic regulations with international standards [4]. - Strengthening the competitiveness of Shanghai as an international financial center and consolidating Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub are also critical steps [4].