Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy and immigration restrictions are expected to negatively impact U.S. economic growth and inflation, affecting global markets [1][3] - The average effective tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. is currently 15%, a level not seen since 1938, and is projected to remain between 10% and 15% in the long term, indicating a shift towards a new international trade structure [3] - The current geopolitical landscape is characterized by significant uncertainty, with major power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, becoming a structural norm in the international system [1][4] Group 2 - The changing global political landscape has profound implications for foreign policy, with key players such as Germany, Russia, and India emerging as significant factors in international relations [3][4] - The interaction between rising tensions among major powers and the political spillover effects from the U.S. are increasing systemic risks globally [4] - There is a call for major powers to rebuild crisis management mechanisms and establish functional cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, public health, and critical supply chain security to restore mutual trust [4]