因此，我的观点是：黄金已从单纯的商品，转变为对冲全球系统性风险的 "金融压舱石" 。策略上：对 于普通投资者，可将部分黄金（如ETF）作为长期资产配置的一部分，以应对不确定性。但短期切勿追 高，其波动同样剧烈。 那么，灵魂拷问来了： 你认为这轮史诗级黄金牛市，主要是对当下世界动荡的"恐慌投票"，还是对美 元信用长期衰减的"价值重估"？你会选择现在上车，还是继续观望？评论区聊聊你的真知灼见！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，在动荡中寻找资产的确定性。 这绝非偶然。多重历史级因素的"共振" 造就了这场牛市：全球地缘政治"火药桶"频发；各国央行年购 金超千吨，重新定义战略储备；市场对美联储继续降息的预期，持续压低持有黄金的机会成本。 黄金暴涨71%！是末日避险，还是价值回归？ 朋友们，见证历史！黄金正迎来 1979年以来最强劲的一年，纽约期金年度涨幅已接近71%！上一次如 此疯狂时，美国总统还是卡特，世界正陷入动荡。历史，似乎在重演？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, reflecting uncertainties in U.S. governance and its potential impact on global capital flows and economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve's benchmark status in the global central banking system is attributed to its relative independence, which is now being challenged by political pressures [2][4]. - Recent years have seen the Fed adopt unconventional monetary policies, including significant money supply increases and low interest rates, which have been perceived as aligned with White House economic policies [2][4]. Group 2: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The current political landscape has led to a conflict between the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation and the White House's desire for a more compliant Fed Chair to stimulate economic growth ahead of midterm elections [2][3]. - Historical precedents exist where political pressures have directly influenced monetary policy, with the current situation being more overt and direct than in the past [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair selection has implications beyond the U.S., affecting global markets through the dollar's dominance and U.S. Treasury yields [4]. - A potential departure of Chair Powell could lead to significant market reactions, including a sell-off of the dollar and U.S. bonds, particularly if policy adjustments are driven by political needs rather than economic fundamentals [4]. Group 4: Economic and Political Challenges - The U.S. economy faces challenges such as high debt, slow growth, and persistent inflation, complicating the effectiveness of traditional economic stimulus measures [4]. - Political polarization and short-term electoral considerations hinder the ability to formulate long-term economic policies, increasing the challenges to the Fed's independence [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy and immigration restrictions are expected to negatively impact U.S. economic growth and inflation, affecting global markets [1][3] - The average effective tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. is currently 15%, a level not seen since 1938, and is projected to remain between 10% and 15% in the long term, indicating a shift towards a new international trade structure [3] - The current geopolitical landscape is characterized by significant uncertainty, with major power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, becoming a structural norm in the international system [1][4] Group 2 - The changing global political landscape has profound implications for foreign policy, with key players such as Germany, Russia, and India emerging as significant factors in international relations [3][4] - The interaction between rising tensions among major powers and the political spillover effects from the U.S. are increasing systemic risks globally [4] - There is a call for major powers to rebuild crisis management mechanisms and establish functional cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, public health, and critical supply chain security to restore mutual trust [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank indicates that current mortgage conditions do not show any signs of deterioration in lending standards and emphasizes the need to prioritize the implementation of Basel III regulations to prevent the accumulation of global systemic risks [1] Group 1 - The Spanish central bank has not observed any signs of worsening lending standards in the current mortgage conditions [1] - There is a strong emphasis on the necessity to prioritize the execution of Basel III regulatory requirements [1] - The focus on Basel III is aimed at preventing the accumulation of systemic risks on a global scale [1]