美印关系这几年彻底变了味。 过去美国把印度捧得很高，当成亚洲棋盘上的关键棋子，指望它能分担压力、牵制对手。 可现在特朗普重新坐进白宫，态度急转直下，直接把印度划进关税打击名单，出手又快又狠。 出口企业首当其冲，订单缩水、利润蒸发，整个产业界一片焦躁。 这不是普通的贸易摩擦，而是战略信任崩塌的外溢。 美国对印度的失望不是一天两天攒出来的。 二十多年来，美方在国防合作、技术转让、情报共享上给足了优待，甚至容忍印度一边拿好处一边跟俄罗斯做能源生意。 美国算盘打得响：印度人口多、地理位置关键，只要扶起来，就能在亚洲形成制衡力量。 可印度偏偏不按剧本走。 它坚持所谓"战略自主"，既不想站队，又想两边获利。 这种模糊策略，在和平时期或许能周旋，但在大国竞争白热化的当下，只会被看作不可靠。 2025年莫迪飞去华盛顿，表面谈扩大经贸合作，气氛看似融洽。 结果没过多久，美国就启动全球关税重置，印度赫然列为重点目标。 新德里抗议"不公平"，但拿不出有效反制手段。 更糟的是，外资企业早就对印度营商环境忍无可忍——政策朝令夕改、地方保护主义横行、基础设施拖后腿。 关税一加，撤资潮加速，制造业复苏计划雪上加霜。 连签证都开始收紧，科技 ...

美国和俄罗斯之间最后一个军控"紧箍咒"——《新削减战略武器条约》于5日失效。美国总统特朗普日 前在社交媒体上称，与其延长该条约，"我们更应让核政策专家们制定一个完善、现代化且长期有效的 新条约"。分析人士认为，特朗普政府想在新军控条约中"夹带私货"，遭到俄罗斯反对，也不符合国际 社会期待。 新条约背后的三条算计 算计❶ 分析人士指出，特朗普政府任凭《新削减战略武器条约》失效，同时谋求所谓"新条约"，背后是其"大 国竞争"的算计。 一些支持条约失效的美方人士认为，随着军事科技变革，多种先进武器系统出现，过去的军控条约已 经"过时"。俄罗斯在核动力巡航导弹、高超音速导弹等新武器系统中具备优势，而美方想将这些武器系 统纳入"新条约"加以限制。对于常规军力发展受限、主要依托核威慑与美国形成相对战略平衡的俄罗斯 来说，美方这一诉求难以接受。 算计❷ 美国要求通过"新条约"将更多国家纳入核军控框架。分析人士指出，美俄两国核武器数量与他国完全不 在一个量级，相关国家不会响应。事实上，针对美国谋求核军控体系"多边化"的诉求，俄罗斯曾提出要 求英国和法国参加相关谈判，但遭英法拒绝。 美媒认为，当前美俄互信水平处于低位，双方不具 ...

新华社北京2月7日电 （记者 刘晨 刘品然）美国和俄罗斯之间最后一个军控"紧箍咒"——《新削减 战略武器条约》于5日失效。美国总统特朗普日前在社交媒体上称，与其延长该条约，"我们更应让核政 策专家们制定一个完善、现代化且长期有效的新条约"。 规定美苏不再保有、生产或试验中程导弹和发射装置的《中导条约》，其谈判历程更为波折。该条 约从1981年11月正式开启谈判，最终于1987年12月正式在华盛顿签署，耗时超过6年。 分析人士还指出，美俄军控机制的核心逻辑是通过"确保相互脆弱性"来实现战略稳定。而美方一面 试图通过新军控机制约束他国核力量，一面又打造旨在实现自身绝对安全的"金穹"导弹防御体系，俄方 对此显然无法接受。 俄联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫日前表示，美国计划打造的"金穹"反导体系极具挑衅性，从根本 上违背了《新削减战略武器条约》所规定的内容。美国《华尔街日报》近日发表评论说，"金穹"加剧了 核战略环境的复杂性。 谈判难度不小 分析人士认为，从谈判技术角度看，要达成一项特朗普要求的既完善、又现代化且长期有效的新条 约，难度不小。 美国军备控制协会资料显示，美苏（俄）自上世纪70年代起共达成多项重大军控条约 ...

新华社北京2月7日电题：美国想搞新的核军控条约，有戏吗？ 谈判难度不小 分析人士认为，从谈判技术角度看，要达成一项特朗普要求的既完善、又现代化且长期有效的新条约， 难度不小。 美国和俄罗斯之间最后一个军控"紧箍咒"——《新削减战略武器条约》于5日失效。美国总统特朗普日 前在社交媒体上称，与其延长该条约，"我们更应让核政策专家们制定一个完善、现代化且长期有效的 新条约"。 分析人士认为，特朗普政府想在新军控条约中"夹带私货"，谋求绝对安全，遭到俄罗斯反对，也不符合 国际社会期待。而且从历史上双方军控条约的谈判历程以及当前美国国内的政治环境来看，美国想在短 期内达成一个满足特朗普要求的新军控条约并不现实。 "新条约"背后的算计 《新削减战略武器条约》签署于2010年，主要限制美俄部署的战略核弹头以及洲际弹道导弹等运载工 具。分析人士指出，特朗普政府任凭该条约失效，同时谋求所谓"新条约"，背后是其"大国竞争"的算 计。 首先，一些支持条约失效的美方人士认为，随着军事科技变革，多种先进武器系统出现，过去的军控条 约已经"过时"。俄罗斯在核动力巡航导弹、高超音速导弹等新武器系统中具备优势，而美方想将这些武 器系统纳入" ...

【文/观察者网 熊超然】当地时间1月29日，德国总理默茨在德国联邦议院发表其任内的第二次施政声 明。在当前错综复杂的国际局势之下，这次演讲备受关注。 综合路透社、美联社、德新社等报道，默茨在讲话中表示，一个大国主导的"新世界秩序"正在迅速形 成，并敦促欧洲盟国通过团结和自信，在"新世界秩序"中成为独立自主的力量。他形容欧盟是一个"帝 国主义和专制主义的替代方案"，能够在日益大国竞争化的世界中与志同道合的伙伴达成协议。 除了欧盟，默茨强调了北约的持续价值，以及欧洲将在其中加强防御力度。他表示，欧洲将始终寻求与 美国合作，但绝不会以"下属"的身份合作，欧洲将不再被关税威胁吓倒。 谈及挑战，默茨则指出，过去十余年以来，欧盟与美国和中国之间的经济增长差距已持续扩大，这种态 势必须逆转。"如果我们真心想要塑造全球政治格局，那么塑造全球政治格局的能力首先取决于经济实 力。" 2026年1月29日，德国柏林，德国总理默茨在联邦议院发表政府外交政策声明。IC Photo "过去几周，我们越来越清楚地看到，一个大国竞争的世界正在形成。一股强劲的逆风正在这个世界刮 起，在可预见的未来，我们将感受到它的影响，"默茨当天在联邦议院说 ...

【文/观察者网专栏作者 心智观察所】 在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛上，特朗普抛出了一个看似简单却颇具嘲讽意味的问题：中国制造了几乎 所有的风力发电机，可他在中国却找不到任何风力发电场。他还不忘补上一句，称"中国非常聪明，他 们生产风力发电机，然后以高价出售。他们把这些发电机卖给那些愚蠢的买家，但他们自己却不用"。 这番言论在社交媒体上引发了不小的波澜，但如果我们只把它当作又一次政治口水战的素材，那就真正 错失了这场争论背后更深层的故事——一个关于能源、基建、算力，以及大国竞争的故事。 事实上，特朗普的这番"找不到风电场"的说辞，要么是故意的误导，要么是对中国能源转型的严重信息 滞后。截至2025年11月底，中国的风电装机容量已经超过6亿千瓦，相当于600吉瓦。这个数字意味着什 么？它意味着中国的风电装机规模已经连续15年稳居世界第一，相当于大约600座核电机组的发电能 力。 从内蒙古苏尼特石旗那片一望无际的草原上竖立的千兆瓦级风储项目，到江苏盐城海域那些随波起伏的 850兆瓦海上风电阵列，再到广东阳江沙扒那座国内首个百万千瓦级海上风电场——这些巨型工程正在 改写着中国的能源版图。说中国没有风电场，就像说美国没有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant military procurement contract between Indonesia and China, initially anticipated to be successful, was ultimately derailed due to U.S. intervention, leading Indonesia to opt for Western suppliers instead [1][2]. Group 1: Military Procurement Details - Indonesia planned to spend approximately 210 billion RMB (31 billion USD) to acquire 42 second-hand J-10A fighter jets, 10 Type 022 missile boats, and 7 Type 053H3 frigates, along with corresponding missile systems [1]. - The J-10A fighter jet is competitively priced, about 30% lower than similar Western products, making it an attractive option for Indonesia's defense needs [2]. - The Type 022 missile boat, with a maximum speed of 50 knots, is ideal for patrolling Indonesia's numerous islands [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Strategy - The U.S. Department of Commerce significantly reduced tariffs on certain Indonesian exports from 32% to 19%, potentially saving Indonesia billions in trade costs annually [2]. - This economic incentive was designed to persuade Indonesia to abandon its Chinese procurement plans in favor of U.S. military equipment, including 9 MQ-9B "Reaper" drones [3]. Group 3: Shift in Procurement Direction - Following U.S. pressure, Indonesia shifted its military procurement strategy, now planning to spend 8.1 billion USD on 42 French Rafale fighter jets and 1.18 billion USD on Italian patrol vessels, among other purchases [3]. - Despite the higher costs of Western equipment, the U.S. tariff incentives made these purchases seem favorable to Indonesia [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. strategy effectively undermines Chinese military exports and reduces China's influence in the region while enhancing U.S. and allied intelligence capabilities in the South China Sea [4]. - The procurement of Chinese military assets, such as the Type 022 missile boat and J-10A fighter jet, was seen as a potential threat to U.S. naval operations in the region [4]. Group 5: Broader Context of Great Power Competition - The military procurement negotiations reflect the harsh realities of great power competition, where economic leverage is used as a strategic weapon, often making developing countries pawns in larger geopolitical games [6]. - The complexities of this situation highlight the challenges faced by China's military-industrial sector and the U.S.'s ongoing efforts to maintain its global hegemony [6].

智通财经特约撰稿 凌云志 美军在格陵兰岛部署了相控阵预警雷达。 热点新闻：据央视新闻1月23日报道，美国总统特朗普22日表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美 国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗普还表示，该协议一旦完成，将允许美国在格陵兰岛部署其"金穹"导 弹防御系统的组成部分。而格陵兰岛称选择丹麦和欧盟，已准备好迎接更大规模军事存在。 此前，法国、德国、英国等欧洲多国宣布将向格陵兰岛派兵，参加由丹麦在该岛发起的"北极耐力"军事 演习，摆出加强军事部署姿态。虽然特朗普在达沃斯的最新表态让欧洲暂时可以"舒一口气"，但面对其 反复无常的做法，不排除未来对抗再次升温的情况。 点评：特朗普政府自第二任期以来，多次公开表达对格陵兰岛的领土诉求，甚至暗示不排除使用武力手 段实现这一目标。这一立场迅速引发丹麦及法国、德国等欧洲多国的强烈反对，使格陵兰岛从长期的地 缘战略议题骤然升级为跨大西洋关系的直接冲突点。格陵兰岛争端远非单纯的领土归属问题，而是映射 出国际秩序重组时代联盟政治所面临的深刻困境，不仅动摇了北约赖以存续的互信基础，更暴露了北约 在协调内部重大利益冲突时的机制失灵。在此背景下，北约被迫在内部凝聚力削弱、战略定位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussions at the Davos Financial Leaders Meeting highlight a divergence in perspectives regarding the future of the global order, particularly between European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, with Lagarde advocating for a more optimistic approach to finding alternatives rather than declaring a complete breakdown of the existing order [1][3][5]. Group 1: Perspectives on Global Order - Mark Carney declared that the "rules-based old order has ended and will not return," emphasizing the need for middle powers to unite against larger nations [3][5]. - Christine Lagarde expressed skepticism about the notion of a complete rupture in international relations, suggesting that there is still room to explore alternatives and address existing vulnerabilities [3][5]. - Lagarde acknowledged the criticisms directed at Europe, suggesting that they serve as a wake-up call to focus on developing contingency plans [5]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Interdependence - Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, noted that despite significant global turmoil, 72% of trade activities still operate under WTO rules, indicating a level of resilience in the global trading system [5][6]. - Okonjo-Iweala also recognized that the world may not return to its previous state, highlighting the need for countries to enhance their resilience against uncertainties [6]. - Kristalina Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund, affirmed that the current situation represents a permanent change, urging acceptance of ongoing transformations in global trade dynamics [7][8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the geopolitical strategies and policies of the Trump administration, particularly focusing on trade, military deployment, and foreign relations. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trump's Strategy**: The core of Trump's strategy is to intertwine personal interests with national interests, using trade deficits and military advantages as pressure tactics, particularly favoring tariffs even against allies to achieve quick results and please his base [1][2][4]. 2. **Economic Policy and Inflation**: The Trump administration's approach to addressing inflation relies heavily on economic policies, but measures like tariffs and tax cuts may exacerbate the burden on low- and middle-income groups, making it difficult to alleviate inflationary pressures in the short term [1][3]. 3. **Military Deployment Limitations**: The U.S. currently has 11 aircraft carriers, but only 3 are deployable, with 2 stationed in the Indo-Pacific region. This limited deployment hampers the ability to respond to multiple conflicts simultaneously, affecting global strategic capabilities [1][6]. 4. **Challenges of Trump Doctrine**: The Trump Doctrine faces tactical challenges, requiring quick results with low tolerance for error. The frequent election cycle demands rapid action, and any casualties could negate achievements, necessitating a balance between short-term effects and long-term strategy [1][7]. 5. **Military Action Characteristics**: Trump's military strategy is characterized by high-profile, dramatic actions, often involving small-scale special operations to demonstrate efficiency. However, this approach lacks long-term planning, making it difficult to achieve sustainable strategic benefits [1][8]. 6. **Limitations of Foreign Policy**: Trump's foreign policy is constrained by low tolerance for error and a lack of long-term strategy, preventing large-scale military invasions or regional destabilization. His focus on short-term outcomes often leads to high-profile initiatives that fizzle out [1][9][10]. 7. **Impact of Trade War**: The trade war has generated approximately $300 billion in annual revenue from tariffs, but 70-80% of the costs are borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, effectively acting as a domestic tax increase of $250 billion. The lack of supportive policies has led to a continued decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs [1][13][14]. 8. **Iran and Venezuela Issues**: Trump's handling of Venezuela and Iran reflects a pattern of high-profile interventions without long-term planning. In Venezuela, despite some short-term gains, the lack of a coherent strategy has hindered the ability to influence regime change [1][11][12]. 9. **Geopolitical Implications**: The geopolitical landscape is marked by short-term commitments and long-term delays, with many countries opting to delay responses to U.S. political changes. This suggests a shift in global asset allocation towards regions perceived as safer, such as East Asia and Africa [1][25]. 10. **Future of the Dollar**: The dollar is expected to weaken in the coming years, which could benefit non-U.S. equity markets. The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields remains uncertain, with precious metal prices anticipated to rise due to these dynamics [1][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the strategic value of Greenland in terms of Arctic routes and resources, as well as the complexities surrounding its independence and the U.S. interest in the region [1][16][17]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Europe, are likely to influence financial markets, with potential volatility stemming from trade negotiations and military commitments [1][19][20]. - The internal divisions within Europe regarding responses to U.S. pressures complicate the situation, as differing national interests hinder a unified approach [1][21].