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国际避险资产格局重构
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美债海外需求创阶段新低 国际避险资产格局重构
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-24 06:07
Core Viewpoint - The latest auction results for U.S. Treasury bonds indicate a significant decline in overseas investor demand, marking a new low since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which increases the pressure on U.S. Treasury sales and suggests a restructuring of the international safe-haven asset landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Auction Results - The recent auction of $69 billion two-year U.S. Treasury bonds had a bid rate of 3.795%, the lowest since September of the previous year, with a tail of 0.6 basis points and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52, below recent averages [2]. - Domestic demand remains strong, with direct bidders accounting for 30.1%, while indirect bidders, representing overseas demand, fell to 56.2%, the lowest since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis [2][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that if overseas participation in Treasury auctions declines by another 10-20%, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to restart quantitative easing and position itself as the "last buyer" of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - The recent sell-off of dollar assets is leading to a reconfiguration of traditional safe-haven assets, with gold and non-U.S. bonds gaining attention as investors shift away from U.S. Treasuries [5][8]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields is expected to increase pricing pressure on global sovereign debt markets and reshape global asset allocation, enhancing the monetary and safe-haven attributes of gold [8]. - Emerging market bonds are also gaining popularity, with India's 10-year benchmark yield dropping to 6.2981%, the lowest since November 2021, and Australian 10-year yields remaining low since early April [8][9]. Group 4: Domestic Market Outlook - In the context of high international market volatility, the value of Chinese assets is becoming increasingly significant, with expectations of a stable A-share market and potential appreciation of the RMB due to domestic economic resilience [9].