近几周来，两大主题引发美股大幅波动：一是市场对企业在人工智能领域巨额投入的审视；二是投资者 对美联储 2026 年进一步降息预期的变化。 本周，甲骨文公司的一个数据中心项目引发市场质疑，拖累科技股及其他人工智能相关板块走低；而周 四公布的温和通胀数据则为股市带来提振。 "本周发布的经济数据进一步强化了市场对美联储倾向于降息的预期。" 爱德华・琼斯公司高级全球投 资策略师安杰洛・库尔卡法斯表示。 他指出，尽管经历了一年的稳健上涨后，未来几天投资者可能会选择获利了结，给市场带来一定抛售压 力，但最新数据 "或许为今年'圣诞涨势'的到来亮起绿灯"。 据《股票交易者年鉴》统计，自 1950 年以来，"圣诞涨势" 通常表现为：标普 500 指数在每年最后五个 交易日以及次年年初两个交易日期间，平均上涨 1.3%。今年这一时间段将从本周三开启，持续至明年 1 月 5 日。 投资者关注延迟经济数据与美联储动向 本周，投资者消化了因美国联邦政府停摆 43 天而延迟发布的一系列重磅经济数据。就业数据显示，11 月美国就业增长出现反弹，但失业率攀升至 4.6%，创下四年多以来的新高。 周四公布的另一项延迟报告显示，截至 11 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the stock market, suggesting that the "Santa Rally" is expected to occur this year [18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent market fluctuations are viewed as adjustments rather than a significant downturn, with capital flows remaining positive for the U.S. stock market [1][3]. - Strong seasonal trends and robust capital inflows, along with a persistent retail demand, are expected to support a market rebound by year-end [2][24]. - Historical data suggests that narrow market breadth, while concerning, has often preceded positive returns in the medium to long term [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Breadth - The S&P market breadth remains narrow, over one standard deviation below the average, but has shown slight improvement, supporting the rationale for strategic rotation rather than structural market concerns [4][6]. Capital Flows - Global equity funds saw significant net inflows of $29 billion, with U.S. equity funds driven entirely by domestic demand, particularly in technology sectors [13]. Risk Appetite - Despite a slight cooling in market sentiment, the risk appetite indicator remains at the one-year average level, indicating that the recent sell-off does not reflect a significant decline in risk appetite [11]. Buybacks - Approximately 90% of S&P 500 companies are currently in their buyback window, with expectations of significant buyback activity leading up to the end of the year [20][23]. Retail Demand - Retail demand remains exceptionally strong, with equities representing the highest allocation in investor portfolios at 52%, suggesting continued positive performance in the stock market [24]. Historical Performance - Historical trends indicate that when the S&P 500 experiences a decline in the first week of November after a strong performance, the average return by December 31 is typically positive [35].